1 THE' OUTLOOK.

Otago Witness, Issue 2810, 22 January 1908, Page 9

1 THE' OUTLOOK.

Messrs 3EL Dawson and^ Co., writing about the outlook say: "Since the last auctions we- are face "ft>" face- with' an altogether new situation. t "The exceptional prices o£ _ last series ] ■were due to exceptional conditions, and j some reaction, or rather adjustment, was inevitable. Unfortunately the^ far-reach'ng\ ! effect of the American, financial crisis has the reactionary movement: l>ear. money- has naturaEy checked 1 the I flow of demand. Consumers, remembering the effect of financial stringency in IBB9L-1900, ' haver become extremely cautious. Conse- ] qusntiy the buoyancy which has for 12 ' months past characterised our industry ha* been, displaced by nervous anxiety and- a quieter tone. "Happily the reporte from 1 all. European centres indicate most conclusively that our industry is in a sound and healthy condition, and is likely (thinks to* several prosperous years) to suffer less than most commercial industries. Moreover, the stocks in consumers' hands generally are at thelowest possible working point. Contracts- for next year's requirements in tops- and' yarns which would have been freely negotiated in September but for the sudden spurt m values, are in the , majority of cases" still waiting to be placed. The present delay appears to be- due more to lack of confidence than to- any ' difficulty as regards prices. "In fact, the general caution which prevails is in itself the best security/ for an early return to- better conditions. It is reasonable to expect that the present series, by the establishment of a basis of values, •will help to restore confidence, and put- an end to the uncertainty and stagnation of the -past weeks. , "Several facts- of a. satisfactory natureshould; be remembered. Merinos 1 are now approximating mete nearly to tne moderate values .of 12 months- ago? it seems probable ; that there will be a slight aIT-round\ dfecrease in this season. r s supplies-; and it -is , generally agreed l that another good l season • for- worsted fabrfes- may be expected, Tne ! stocks- of merioff tops' in- German combing ! mills for last month; were extremely Tot*, i amounting to a. Kttle over three- million kilos only (Es> Plata- and Australian combined)', ■ which, is the lowest point toucEed for many years. J "Crossbreds are in- at state of nebulous ■uncertainty, and' users- have awaited 1 the settlement- "of- values, on a firm basisv Buyers have been standing: off so long that medium and coarse grades have declined- to a level which is unjustifiably low as compared with finer sorts, and' a sharp reaction is more than possible- before- long. "Altogether, despite financial tightness, the baiance of evidence is in favour of a hopeful view and of the maintenance of today's level." BBADFORD "WAITING UPON LONDON. Bradford to-day is in a etate- o£ expectancy, everyone ■waiting- to see what Londba does. .A firmer market in Ooleman street can* fear© a wonderful effect upon cokdiSons here, for lately very little indeed has been done. • "Spot" sales have been entirely" of a shopping character, the prirt cipal business consisting of supplying only very pressing needs. Many spinners "who ' nave previously fixed up. contracts "begin taking in their top purchases nextf month, consequently they are very much opposed to paying more than what they have previously bought at. It is rather' difficult to say what a. good super 60's top is worth, though a" man can r>ick up quite easily, a srood combing at 2s 3ad. Practically speaking, to-day's prices are about the eanie as these ruling for next year's delivery, and to all appearance very little is now going 1 to be done but for future delivery. Some good sales of these have recently been effected, and there is a feeling abroad that prices are fast approaching a safe selling basis. A good deal now will depend upon the course of things in Londto-n during the next two weeks. A good series will, to a ve-rv laree extent, remove from the trade much of" the fear andi timidity which has lately ' cjogeed the trade. There is confidence about the future of wool prices, but it is not so very proftunced as to lead to any tigpurchases either on present or future account. The best thing that could hapuen to the trade would be some relief in, financial quarters, and a lower bank rate would put everything right. The situation is, therefore, more or less of' a semi-stable character, Bradford simply wanting to feel the pressure of some outside stronger force, when things will respond 1 , and that quick. The consumption of wool is fully maintained, both- toomakers and spinners still being busy. Prices., for the moment have stoooed falling, and the news from Australasia, is, such as to cause holders to refuse lower bids. A Delrv&ries"'are being made both of tops and yarns, and nothing is accu : mulating. ~ Mohair- keeps very quiet, and hardly anvthins is dainir in this, department.- Cape descriptions seem utterly neglected, Turkey average _ beinsr the favoured article owing to its spinning quality. Spinners still keep busy, and manufacturers have not yet, felt any slackening ,in the call for pieces. There are more rumours of failures, and this, of course, ! does not help to stimulate the market.