WEATHER CYCLES.

Ohinemuri Gazette, Volume XXII, Issue 2781, 24 April 1911, Page 3

WEATHER CYCLES.

A THEORY EXPLODED

We notice that the meteorologist for the Commonwealth has come to the conclusion that the theory of weather cycles is useless as a basis for forecasting weather on the eastern coast of Australia. He has compiled details oi the rainfall in Sydney and the surrounding country during each month ot the past seventy years, and on these his opinion is iounded. By means of a graph which he has constructed, all the monthly totals greater or less than the average rainfall are cleatly shown, and MV Hunt says that a cursory glance at the diagram will convince the most ardent believer in the statistical basis for lorcasting the seasons that the method cannot be applied to the coastal seasons of New South Wales. " During the whole period covered by the graph," he said to an interviewer, " there is barely a single instance where one month's rainfall, much less that of a season, coincides with the average. In iact, it would almost appear as if the line which represents the average were designed in many cases to avoid the actual totals registered. Those who are wedded to a behet in weather cycles or recurrence ot seasons may also be convinced that if such exist the period over which our climate history extends is undoubtedly too short to establish a cycle of any practical use." The theory that the rain of any season is an indication of what the following season will be has been dispelled by the fact that there are as many instances ot dry following wet seasons as there are of dry or wet seasons following either kind. . Some excessively dry seasons have been preceded and followed immediately by extraordinarily wet ones. The driest year ever known in New South Wales was 1888, but 1887 and 1889 were two of the best years the State has enjoyed. I'he most protracted drought occurred during the ten months ended June, 1902, the rainiall being 26in. below normal. Some ot the prolonged wet periods have been equally wide of the average. The weather prophet of Australia appears to be confronted by many difficulties.