THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, October 9, 1940. THE BALKAN TANGLE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 24424, 9 October 1940, Page 6

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, October 9, 1940. THE BALKAN TANGLE

The entry of German troops into Rumania suggests that the future of that troubled country still remains in the balance. The weeks that have elapsed since the advance of Russia into the northern provinces of Bessarabia and Bukovina, the settlement of Hungarian and Bulgarian claims in Transylvania and the Southern Dobruja and the overthrow of Carol’s regime by the Iron Guard, have contributed little enough to the solution of either Rumania’s problem or the problem of Balkan politics as a whole. In the first moment of her peril Rumania turned to Germany for protection. In the circumstances of German temporary victory in the west, with the .consequent impossibility of aid being secured fi'om. Great Britain in Rumania’s struggle to preserve her independence, she could do nothing else. In recent weeks the Antonescu Government has in fact been at pains to stress the strength of Rumania’s attachment to the Axis, and official quarters in both Berlin and Bucharest are now said to be attempting to give harmless significance to the penetration of German forces, even while less interested observers interpret the movement as meaning the assumption of direct control of the country by Germany. There may well be truth in the suggestion that “protection” of the oilfields is an important part of the Nazi purpose. Germany’s problem in the Balkans has been to' secure the peace of that area in view of her pressing need for the largest possible deliveries of oil and grain. The suddenness and effectiveness of the Russian coup disturbed Berlin. Germany could have no wish to oppose the Russian advance into the Balkans by force, but neither could she passively watch the extension of Russian influence into spheres of interest hitherto marked out for her own exploitation. It has been argued that German plans are for the welding of Rumania, Hungary and Bulgaria, the States most exposed to Russia, into a bloc under German leadership which, while not appearing to interfere with Russian designs, would nevertheless serve the double purpose of checking Russia in the military sense and simultaneously imposing a barrier to Communist propaganda, which is said to be making considerable headway in Rumania and Bulgaria. Early in August foreign military observers in Bucharest estimated that Russian forces in Bessarabia totalled ten infantry divisions and five mechanised divisions, complete with material for the construction of twelve pontoon bridges at various points along the Pruth and Danube rivers. If the Germans fear that Russia has plans in train for a deliberate movement into the Balkan peninsula the obvious check would be the military occupation of vital Rumanian frontier positions on her own account. The professed friendship of the. Iron Guard Government would have little meaning for, the Nazis if the need arose for the discouragement of Russian expansionist dreams. Herr Hitler has, indeed, cynically declared more than once that he excepts Rumania, like France, to pay heavily for what he calls her past errors, which ho present talk of Axis orientation could extenuate. Axis quarters have also professed to regard with alarm increasing evidence of Soviet and British intrigue in the Balkans, especially in Rumania—a fact which may go some distance toward explaining the recent brutal attacks on British subjects engaged in the Rumanian oil industry. Whatever the real meaning of the latest German step may be, it is of more than ordinary significance that German interest is said not to be confined to the massing of troops in the oil areas, but to extend to the establishment of naval and air force bases and a submarine factory on the Black Sea coast. The survival of this or that regime in Rumania is a matter of complete indifference to the Nazis, the Economist said a few weeks ago. “Their only preoccupation,” that paper added, “is whether, given the possibility of a Soviet advance down the Black Sea coast, they can, while continuing to avoid an overt clash with Russia, still secure a monopoly of supplies in the Rumanian rump State which would remain.” That theory certainly seems to fit in very reasonably with the facts of the latest Nazi invasion.