PROSPECTS OF THE GRAIN MARKET.

Oamaru Mail, Volume IV, Issue 1253, 23 April 1880, Page 2

PROSPECTS OF THE GRAIN MARKET.

(From the Timaru Herald.) "What are the prospects q? the Home grain market % is a question which is on the tip of every farmer's, tongue at the present time. It is a very difficult one to answer, and in-striving to do so, we must needs seek far and. wide for information. We have to find out, in the first place, what is likely to be the extent of the supplies in the yapiptis gpainrproducing countries of the world] secondly, where and what the principal demand will be ; and last, but not least, putting the aggregate supply against the aggregate demand,, what the ruling price for breadstuffs in the United Kingdom will be, for the markets there practically rule those in other parts of the world. ' The United States harvest this year is estimated at 420,000,000 bushels j and reckoning the population of that country at 48,000,000 persons, about 200,000,000 bushels will be needed for home consumption, and at least another 50,000,000 for seed purposes, leaving 170,000,000 bushels for export. Apart from the States, Russia will, at the very outside, have not more -than 30,000,000 bushels surplus, and when we add tp this 20,000,000 bushels from Koumania, and 6,000,000 from Canada and Australia, the total wheat supply which Europe is likely to receive amounts in all to about 226,000,000 bushels. The current deficiency, in ' Europe is placed at from 225,000,QQQ to 275,000,000' buahplsj. demand in England is dearly known. It will amount to somewhere near 110,000,000 bushels. That in France can be less accurately estimated. All Northern Africa is in a state of famine, or is producing barely enough for its own supply, leaving nothing fqr.esporfc. This outa off she French source of supply in Algeria. Italy is also importing grain instead of exporting it, which closes another region from - which, France obt^Qg. supplies.;. Taking everything into consideration, then, the French demand cannot be estimated

at much under 100,000,000 bushels. The rest of Europe will probably need 75,000,000 more, but may need less. In America a ring of capitalists has been formed to buy up all the stocks they can, and hold them until just before the English harvest, or, say, until June oV July, with a view of forcing prices. That the English and Continently demand prior to August will, as wo have shown above, be great cannot admit of a doubt, ancl the question arises whether the Australian and New Zealand wheat which has already been shipped, or is now in course of shipment, will, by arriving partly before and partly at tho ~ ... same time as that from the States, return • the high rates which the American ring are looking forward to. After having gone into the matter very carefully, the conclusion we have come to is this: The present intention of the American ring being to hold on t6 stocks till June and July, the Australian and New Zealand wheat arriving before then will command high rates, but after that, if tho prospects of the ;English harvest are bright, the Home millers will purchase sparingly j and the American speculation will turn out a failure. Ifi, on the other | hand, there is a probability of the Home crops falling below the average, theprice of ' breadstuffs will keep up, if they do not still further advance. Taking all things into consideration, we think that any grain shipped Home from this Colony during tho next six weeks will realise not less than 53s ex-warehouse, provided of course the American ring does not;break up or alter its intentions, in, the meantime. If it shbuld collapse, American stocks will bo poured at once into the English and Continental markets, and rates will fall rapidly. ,