THE VICTORIAN HARVEST.

Oamaru Mail, Volume IV, Issue 981, 11 June 1879, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE VICTORIAN HARVEST.

The agricultural statistics for Victoria for the season 1878-79 prove conclusively that the wheat crop was a disastrous failure, for while there was an increased area of 93,849 acres under crop, the yield fell short of the previous season's by 1,302,792 bushels, the average yield per acre being only an infinitesimal fraction over eight bushed to the acre. The Age estimates the deficiency at 882,391 bushels, but it is more generally believed that over a million bushels will be required, and the question naturally arises, From whence will the supply have to be drawn ? We fear that at present prices New Zealand cannot profitably enter the Melbourne market, but. as Victoria will have to make up ; her deficiency from some quarter, and as the large grain centres are not likely to rush their produce into the market in a hurry and before

time has been given forthe deficient produce to find its true value, we may fairly anticipate that prices will naturally. advance to such an extent as to enable us o rind a good market for some portion or our surplus. Already very marked rises have taken place in the' price of "heat m the neighboring 'colonies, and still further advances may Jbe looked or. Lut is not only in regafd to the prospect of a market being obtained tor our present surplus that'we desire to direct attention to the state of nwtteis in Victoria. The tables which we give below, drawn from the iafermation pubushed in the GoyeriiMt Gazette of Victoria, afford much- foo'd fo» reflection in quite a different, direction, hut before we pr&eeed tQ discuss the matter from an enlarged point of view we will give the figures, as by so doing • it will be easier for us to deduce our conclusions and for our readers to follow us. Ihe tables given below show the acreage under the four principal crops and their gross and average produce during the past ten years :

Now it will be observed that under every heading the average yield per acre has greatly fallen off during the decade, and this, too, notwithstanding that new land fresh, vir. gin soil—has been continually placed under the plough. In no particular is this more noticeable' than in regard to wheat. Here we find that the average yield per acre has fallen in ten years from 19.8 bushels to 8.7 bushels per acre ; indeed, the total produce this year is very little more than it was in 1870, notwithstanding that in that year there were not two-fifths of the amount of land under wheat. It is true last year was a bad one for the crops, and that the yield was damaged by rust blight; but even after making an allowance for this, the fact stares us in the face that the yield of wheat is falling off in a very marked manner. Taking the figures before us, with all the surrounding circumstances, the question occurs to us, Can Victoria long continue to grow wheat profitably? To, our minds the answer must undoubtedly be in the negative; and are war, ranted in coming to th.i.-; conclusion, by a variety of reason. The liability of the colony to severe droughts and the ever present danger of the crop being damaged by rust blight must eventually, tell their tale. It is impossible that, even to maintain an industry, protective Victoria can long endive a state of things which small farmer? to seek the assistance of the Government to enable them to carry on their • business, It would be folly to imagine that such a thing c:o\!d !e done. But what the farmers ha. e Un compelled to ask this year they may very probably be forced to pray lor again next year and the following one, and so on to the end of the chapter, while each season they must become in even a worse position should their croi s be attacked with rust blight. But it is not only in this respect that the decadence of wheat-growmg in Victoiia must be anticipated. We have alrerdy seen that the power of production .n the land has greatly diminished, whether owing to its natural unsuitability to wheat-growing, or in consequence of a pernicious system cf continuous ci opping being followed, we need not now pause to consider. We know, t>o, that H very large tracts of virgin land have been yearly placed under cultivation

without to any material extent check trig the falling off in the average yield We know also that Victoria does not possess sufficient land to pursue her present course for many years, and that within no very distant period she will not possess much agricultural land to throw open to selection. These thtngs must eventually have a deterrant effect upon her farmers, who will be forced to seeksomenewmeansofpattingthctrund to profitable use. They must become tired of struggling against a state of thin"s at once disheartening and ruinous.' and the downfall of wheat-growing in Victoria is only a matter ot time, 'flint we shatt not have long to watt before witnessing such a result we are tolerably well assrffed. ft matters not to what extent an industry may he fostered and aided by a Government, it must eventually succumb if it cannot without Government aid be made profitable. Its collapse may be delayed, but its end is rendered none the less inevitable. _____

Y ear ended. March 31. Wheat, acres. acres, OaU IT 4 S Hay. acres. M0,485 103,181 103,206 121,375 115,672 119,120 155,274 157,40S 170,951 1 fix (US 1870 .. 1871 ... 1572 ... 1573 ... 1574 1575 ... 1876 ... 1S77 ... 1S7S ... 1879 ... 2SS,5U 2S4.1S7 :«4,<i0!> 320,504 3-49,970 332,930 321,401 401,417 504,504 65S.413 144,791 149.309 175.944 125,505 110,99] 114.921 124,100 113,209. 105,234 133.403 41,210 39,020 39,004 3S.517 38,349 35,1 S3 36,901 40,450 37,107 Year ending M aivh 31. "Wheat, bushels, Oats, bushels. Si p-l Fay. tons. 1870 ... 1871 ... iS72 ... 1873 ... 1S74 ... 1875 ... 1576 ... 1577 ... 1878 ... 1879 .. 1,097,050 2,S70,40'.I 1,500,795 5,391,101 4,752,2S9 l,S50,l(i5 4,if78,914 .3.-279,730 7,0.18.257 ■3,715,105 VivRAfiE r 3,701,408 2.257,010 3,299,SS9 2,454,225 1,741,451 2,121,012 2,719.795 2,294,225 2,040,480 2,347.997 uouucm r 127,045 127,579 125,S41 132.997 109,822 124.310 124,377 134,082115,419 93,020 Ell ACHE IT PH 224,816 183,708 144,637 159,964 147,393 157,261 206,613 180,560 207,251 205,632 Year ending March 31. 'Wheat, bushels. Oats, bushels. K: 1870 .. 1571 .. 1572 .. 1873 .. ]S74 .. 1S75 .. 1870 .. 1S77 .. 187S .. 1879 .. 19.S 10.1 13.5 10.5 13.(5 14.0 15.5 13.2 12.4 i 8.7 26.0 15,0 18.S 19.fi 15.7 IS. 5 21.9 19.9 19.4 17.0 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 1.6 1.1 1,4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 l v 2 hi