PROGRESS OF THE ARMISTICE

New Zealand Times, Volume XLIV, Issue 10290, 27 May 1919, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE ARMISTICE

While the Pence Treaty is perplexing the German leaders, and they are seeking to oppose the terms by instilling fear of change into the hearts of the Allies, we are forced by the tactics of our late enemy to consider what is happening in Russia. Tho forcing process consists in simple reference to the wonderful Bolshevik armies under tho banner of Trotsky. The first glance at those armies is sufficient to dispel the cloud under which tho German loaders —practically the bureaucracy, which remained in possession after the ignominious flight of the Kaiser —are seeking protection. Tho news coming in from all sides is that the Bolshevik armies are being knocked about in tho manner which is seen only when organised forces are about to disappear under the hammer blows of a successful strategic opponent. That is tho general effect of the nows. There is no contradiction except in two statements from the enemy side. One is tho German bureaucratic reference to Trotsky’s magnificent troops; the other is the Bolshevik statement that the Bolshevik forces are still determined to fight.

Of these statements, the first Is more than balanced by the general agreement of the news. In the northern centre Petrograd is in a parlous state. Threatened by Esthonian, Russian and Finnish forces from skoff, and the Gulf of Finland, whore the hostile forces are within a dozen to a score of miles of the capital and still advancing, the Petrograd Soviets are preparing to evacuate. In the extreme north the Bolsheviks are giving way wholesale in the Murmansk district. In the East the forces of Kolchak have mad© such victorious progress that' the Japanese have recognised the right of their chief to be regarded ns the paramount authority in Russia. Whether the Allies of Japan will follow suit remains to he seen, but there aio statements to the effect that they are thinking of doing so. In the south we reach the only locality of the Bolshevik?, where the troops are alleged to bo ready to fight. Tho decisive victories of Kolchak discount that statement very heavily. They reduce the allegation to absolute futility.

Tho significance of the KolchaK victories is practically acknowledged hy tho two English journals which are opposing tho Japanese action. Tho “Manchester Guardian” and the “Daily News’,’ fulminate against Japan on the score of selfish interest, predicting the growth of Japanese paramountcy in the Far East at the expense of the Allies of Japan. The prediction is tit all events proof that those critics regard the Kolchak Government as firmly established. As to their conclusion about the Japanese motive, the most feasible explanation of tho Japanese move is that it has not been made without the approval of the Allies in Paris. Japan has hitherto moved in perfect accord with tho Allies, behaving, always as a loyal niem-

her of the Entente. It is not likely that in the crucial moment of hope for Russia’s emergence from the abomination of the Bolshevik desolation, the Japanese have suddenly thrown away their loyalty to the Allies and made, a selfish move.

Moreover, what success can an isolated move of that kind expect? Tho leading feature of the world situation is that it depends now, and must depend always, for stability upon the outcome of the Paris Conference, with the League of Nations established as the safeguard and controller. based on the enlightened principles of justice and fair play, instead of the old diplomacy, which has been proved by this very war to have been always rotten to the core. Japan has everything to-gain by working in with the new arrangement, and everything to lose by playing a lone, dishonest hand. Japan has been always true to tiro principles accepted by her entry into the war. Japan is not likely to swerve from principle when tho weight of self-interest is thrown into the scale of justice. The “Manchester Guardian’’ and tho “Daily News” have so often derailed themselves off tho right track during the war that their guidance in this matter cannot bo accepted. Their acknowledgment of the strength ot Kolchak’s movement is merely a sign that they have fallen in with the general acceptance of an established fact.

The refusal of the Allies to interfere in force against the Bolsheviks in Russia has been deplored over and over again. But the difficulty was to make sure of the Bolshevik character and situation. That difficulty no longer exists. Abundant information from Russia has branded the Bolshevik rule as a usurpation, stamped their government as futile, and their character as abominable. It has been proved also that the majority of Russian opinion is against the Bolshevik regime, which owes its dominance to the money and the arms which it seized at tho outset. That the Russian majority will be glad to help to throw oii b tho usurpers is now definitely understood. The difficulty of intervention, therefore, has disappeared.

Moreover, the Bolsheviks are enemies of the Entente Alliance, which they regard as the one Power standing between them and their desire for an anarchistic world-wide revolution. That in itself is a reason for Entente intervention in Russian affairs. But there is a far stronger reason. The Entente -Allies are bound to Russia by the strong tie of gratitude. The Russian effort in the beginning of the war was as striking and decisive on land as tho effort of the British Navy on the water. The Russian forces advanced in millions, brave, efficient, and enthusiastic. They struck down tho power of Austria, and they directed the advance of Russia for a considerable time after they had frustrated the second half of the plan of the German campaign of world offensive. It cannot be forgottten, to the credit of Russia, that this frustration of half the plan of the enemy was done at the same time that the battle of the Marne was frustrating tho Western half of tho plan. '

That service is as incalculable as it was decisive. It is true that Russia foil away, through the inherent vices of Czardom and bureaucracy, stimulated by internal treachery. To that the total collapse of Russia was due. But before tho collapse was pronounced, Russia had -sacriliped-four-milliou dead on tho'field of brittle for "the great cause espoused by the E'ntcnte Powers. After such service, to leave Russian humanity a prey to Bolshevik horrors would be the basest ingratitude.

Tbe safety of the West requires a stable Russia, and the help of the Entente Powers is required to do the stabilising. The work is now easier by the turn of affairs in Russia, and will become still easier ~when Poland and the States set up! out of tbe ruins of the Austrian Empire become more stable. The main consideration in Middle Europe is that these States are approaching stability far more hopefully than they were immediately after tbe brutal Austrian centralising bond was burst asunder by the great Italian victory of the Italian rivers. With stability established in Middle Europe and re-established in Russia, tho future of tho world will bo safe against Germany. Then the solidarity of eighty millions people of German blood will bo no longer a disturbing factor. Aa things are now, that solidarity is a very disturbing factor indeed. And, obviously, for in all the protests against tho Treaty offered to Germany, there is not, as their own chief publicist baa pointed out, any sign of repentance for the past or of a change of heart for tho future. The main endeavour, of tho world must be to stand on guard in superior force over the still aggressive beaten disturber ot the peace, until tho peoples around have grown strong enough to make aggression for theit' conquest a childish dream. That is how the facts arc shaping themselves, and the trend must he faced. The Allies are facing it with courage, prudence, firmness, and tact. If Germany submits to a just and not too hard fate, the world will he safe. If Germany resists, the world will have to deal with Germany before its own safety can be said to be secure.