PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9795, 19 October 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Tli© T\ aiscr is In Constantinople, having travelled hy the Balkan express, breaking the journey at Sofia, the capital of Czar Ferdinand. Before leaving that place ho did a very common German trick. Ho stamped his foot and mado a million Bulgarian soldiers spring into being. With a German audience these conjuring feats never fail. The outside world is different. It has not much faith in tho Kaiser as Lord High Magician. / It will just remember that tho Bulgarian population could not furnish more than half a million if its man-power were untouched; and it will not torget that Bulgaria has done a good deal of fighting, losing a good many men in Serbia in that treacherous attack they mado in the Serbian back, and not getting off scot free in tho Roumanian campaign, to say nothing of some awkward moments in Macedonia, when, for example, the Serbians chased them out of the Monastir country, and barrail’s men gavo them something to think about between the Varda and tho Struma. All their time was not occupied in the painless extraction of Greek teeth, such as receiving the surrender of 30,000 Greeks and deporting them to Germany. Their Roumanian fighting, moreover, coat them something.

Besides that feat of conjuring the Kaiser waved his Mailed Fist in the direction of Sarrail’s line, ordering the Bulgarians to take it, and promising them as reward the whole district, including the port. Even the Teutonic mind will, it is probable, fail to expect the immediate sweeping of barrail’s men into the sea. There was a tune before Ypres 1., and sundry fights, when the Kaiser’s order was regarded all over Germany—under pain of the lesser treason—as final. Tills time, we fear, the Teutonic mind will not even say “Hoch.” The, pro-

gramme of the Imperial conjuring tour must bo earned out nevertheless.

The Imperial Wizard in Constantinople docs another old trick. He gives out through his entourage that he is about to visit the forts at the Dardanelles, and at once the Teutonic mind will feel sure that the whole world will believe that the great Emperor has visited the other Hun for no other purpose, and there will be a chorus of praise of the Kaiser’s wonderful cleverness, followed by “Deutschland über Alles.” No doubt the All Highest descendant of Attila will visit the Dardanelles, in shining armour, with his rattling sahre and mailed fist. Ho will have got them all on when he discourses of the campaign which ended well enough for his interests there. But hi s eagle eye will be on Baghdad. He will smile at himself with pride as he looks dow" over the Hellespont, and the smile will take an extra curl when the usual courtier remarks that this is the first time an equal of Alexander has stood hy the historic ferry since Alexander’s crossing. The Impel ial nod will imply much : inter alia —“Gentlemen, 1 could swim over if it pleased My Majesty better than Lcander and _ Lord Byron, and knock their record into a cocked hat.” And if an reprobate Turk should remark that Loandcr was drowned there would not he a flicker of the Imperial eyelid to mar the serenity of the orb that rivals in keenness and majestic dignity those of all the Alexanders and Attilas that ever lived.

By which we mean that there is a great deal of puffing about this visit to onstantinople. But the puffing will not conceal the fact that the Kaiser ha s gone there to look after the, interest of the great Eastern Germanic Empire, self-contained, independent of the sea. of which the trident will never be in his hands, the empire of Teutonic dreams stretching from Hamburg to Baghdad and the Persian Gulf. , It is lamentable that the connecting link is in the Kaiser’s hands, that his great Balkan railway has brought him safely to Constantinople, that another railway is in his hands beyond Aleppo, probably extended in some fashion nearly to the Mesopotamian delta, which is Mesopotamia, with its memories of the Babylonian empires of the Assyrians, the Persians, the Greeks, the' Saracens, and the Turks, and its menace against India and Egypt.

But there is another fact which dims the Germanic dream of Eastern empire, half-realised as it is already, and threatens it, nevertheless, with extinction, as complete as the extinction of the great Pan-German dream of empire in the West. The arch-enemy of Germany is in strong possession ufith a capable general to command against all the power that remains in German hands. That enemy was the friend of Germany before the Pan-Gormans drove it to defend its life. It has extinguished the Western half of the groat German dream, and it bids fair to finish off the Eastern half. That is what the Kaiser’s eye will see as it looks over the Hellespont into the space of the Imperial dreamland. If his eyelids do not flicker, it will only be ey a great histrionic effort, for even his vaulting ambition must realise the tremendous weight of the task he has entrusted to his general—the task of conquering two powerful British armies with Ottoman troops not too well officered, supported by indifferent communications and liable to important flanking attack, well sustained from bases. The struggle will be one of the most momentous in history. The appearance of the Kaiser on the scene signifies that it is about to begin in earnest. • • •

The Germanic preparations being probably nearly complete, the time is at hand for the shock erf armies. The mechanical resources of Germany will be a powerful factor in the fight. But not a division of the German army can be spared for it. That army is wholly employed elsewhere. The Alllies in the West have pinned down the greater part of its still huge bulk on their long front, in. a life-and-deatli struggle which is going steadily against the Gorman hosts, shattered by great blows incessantly kept up. The Italian armies are a growing menace to the Central Powers. The Russian armies have survived their paralysis, and are every day gaining strength, forbidding the hope of another siuoh opportunity for crushing defeat as has just been lost by sheer inability of the enemy to take advantage of it, and is increasing the need of keeping troops to maintain the long line from the neighbourhood of Riga to the Danube. The Allies in the Balkans have a great force, which the Dual Powers must reckon with, keeping powerful armies to’ bar the roads to the north towards the heart of Austria, and the northeast towards the corridor through which the supplies from the East must pass. Here the chief reliance of the enemy is the Bulgarian army—that million the Kaiser has conjured out ot tho ground with his foot trick. At the northern end of the long Eastern line the enemy has Improved his position in the Gulf of Riga. But if he succeeds in establishing a'base, of what avail will that be? It is men he will want to strengthen his Eastern line, and sustain any advance on Petrograd, Where will he get them without decisive victory in the West ? But he has no hope of victory there. The West is a gulf into which, if he wants to be saved, He must throw all the men he can spare. It is clear that no German armies will march with the Turks on Mesopotamia. There may be enough to show the uniform for political purposes. But for military advantage, there is no hope in that direction. The thing must bo done in Mesopotamia by Turkish troops or not at all.

On the other hand what of the Allies? They are now holding the enemy everywhere, as we have just seen in our light sketch of the situation. There is apparently a certainty that, a powerful Greek army will be added at once to the Allied forces in the Balkans. The Russians now permit a reasonable hope that they will move fn the spring in full strength, in which case their munition supplies are_ scoured. Lastly, the Arrerican armies will certainly appear in what is called full Continental strength on the Western field in the spring. The British forces are tremendous, in greater strength rlian will ho required for tho_ work in the West. The French armies, Lord N T orthcliffe has just assured the Government of Washington, are strong enough for the work before them, requiring only tbe munitions, which America can supply- The Italian armies still astonish the world hy thejr power, their skill, and their equipment.

Thus all the resources, mechanical, financial and human, of the Allies are sure of increase in the remaining period of the war, whereas those of the

Dual Powers are decreasing. The enemy’s chances aro poor in the present great theatres of war. For the struggle in Mesopotamia they must, ot course, forcibly be less. While the Central Powers are looking for peace tho coalition of nations is pushing on tho fight with increasing strength. As the autumn of 1917 approaches winter tho prospects of the Allies grow daily better.

The enemy announces that ho is in full possession of the Island of Oesol, which ought, if what the Russians have been tolling us during this episode is true, to mean that they have* tho command of tho Gulf of Riga. They claim also that in some naval fighting in the Gulf of Riga they have had tho advantage. This is evidently the naval fightmg reported yesterday by the Russians. It follows that the operations in the neighbourhood of tho Aland Islands were of the nature of what may be called gun-running by tho enemy. What proportion of the Russian Baltic Fleet was engaged in the Gulf of Riga or between the lt " lands does not appear. It was clearly not enough to give serious check to the enemy’s ships. Both, sidco seem satisfied with tho result, but apparently the Island of Oesol was not saved, and the enemy is not driven out of the Gulf of Riga. Whether tho Gulf is to remain in possession ot tho enemy is now doubtful. That, apparently, has yet to be decided between the rival forces in the Gulf, which, in their battle, did not arrive at decisive results. The outlook, however, is not good. For, if the enemy is in complete possession of Oescl and of the neighbouring positions in that island, which command the entrance to the Gulf, and if the Russian ships have not got out, the situation of those Ships is not pleasant. However, the Gulf is large—Pornau, for example, which the enemy’s hydroplanes have been bombing, is nearly ICO miles from Riga- —and there are minefields, as is suggested by the fate, reported to-day, of one of tho enemy’s battleships. There is plenty of room to fight. Whether the Russians, in the event of the worst, can get out by the channel between the Livonian Shore and Ousel and Dago Islands, we cannot say. The weak point on the Russian side is that their ships were not in sufficient force to defeat tho enemy and drive him out. The fact suggests that the Russian Baltic Fleet has not yet, to put it mildly, recovered its form.

The West front contributes little beyond further details, which illustrate the extreme severity of the fighting. What little is beyond is satisfactory, for it reports that the Australians have driven the enemy back to the east of Broodseindo with 1 steady persistanco. It shows improvement on that side for the next advance. Also it is evidence that the British have pulled themselves together -without much effort. While the recovery goes on, the land is drying up and the guns are going all along the lines.

From Paris we have some reports of alleged German attempts to feel a way towards peace in the British, French and Russian capitals. One newspaper goes so far as to say that, ' are documents in evidence with the Kaiser’s signature. And we have the fact that the French Chamber has decided to bold a secret session to consider a German hint of the restoration of Alsace and Lorraine. The bint has been denied by Germany, but the Far journal aforesaid quotes in reply the Kaiser’s signature. In view of events on the West front, and the closing m of all the Allies on the great fighting ring, 'a German desire for peace is not at all unlikely. Neither is a German attempt to find out what terms each ot the Allies would bo inclined to favour. A separate peace with any of them may be regarded as even beyond the German dreaming power, for the deterruination of tho Allies to stick together to the end is well enough known. It is singular that in the story there is no mention of America.

Whatever the merits of tho story may bo, one thing is quite certain. Tho \lljos will have no peace but the peace of their dictation. The game is now in their hands.

In this connection a speech of the Russian General Alexieff. reported today, is important. Tho General, talking of the Paris Conference, declared that it would be useless for him to go unless Russia has a fighting army, for if Russia does not fight hard and well with the Allies, she will got left when peace is made after the great victory, which will be won in any case. If she is not in it she will lose. If she helps to wiu she will get full consideration. That, at all events, gives the Russians a very strong lead.

The submarine toll is somewhat less to-day, a diminution, on the average of 4000 tons and 800 tons respectively for the larger and smaller ships sunk, of 4800 tons on last week’s figure. If the present mean of 65,000 tons each for two weeks lastg a year, the annual loss would be 2,860,000 tons. That would be well within the building output; a great inconvenience, no doubt, but negligible so far as the result of the war is concerned. The enemy expected to paralyse in a few weeks, and has reached a stage which can go on for years without any' result beyond adding to tho expenses of the fight. No wonder some of the people ar© saying that submarining is after all hardly worth while. The way they put it was that England instead of being starved is not yet on rations.