The New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY). FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1879.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIV, Issue 5800, 31 October 1879, Page 2

The New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY). FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1879.

The failure of the harvest in England, and the consequent expectation that the price of wheat will be somewhat higher in the old coun try during the coming year than it has be leu of late, may possibly have the effect of inducing New Zealand farmers to des patch a larger quantity of wheat than ust nal to that market. Some useful facts am i figures in connection with grain prospec is lately appeared in a pamphlet pub lished by the Southern Fertilising Ooi npany of Richmond, Virginia, for the I icnefit of their customers.

It is stated i m the authority of that pamphlet that the United States produces per headl of population about 31 bushels of wheat, of which the home market takes about 15 bushels, leaving 19 bushels for export. The United Kingdom is by far the heaviest bir, :• of grain in Europe. Thus :—“Her nv.inge tl imports of wheat and flour as wheat “ during the twelve years ending with “ 1877-78, amounted to 85,401,224 “ bushels ; her annual production of “ wheat, taking the thirteen years end- “ ing with 1878-79, was 93,093,200 “ bushels. Excluding what is required ‘ c for seed, we have as available for con- “ sumption, 84,389,184 bushels. Alto- “ pother she practically buys as much as (l s.he raises.”

Some idea of the enormous quantity of wheat which the United States are capable of,pouring into Great Britain may be gathered from the fact that “ The Produce Exchange,” of New York, estimates the last wheat crop of that country at some 400,000,000 to 425,000,000 bushels. Tho cost of carriage has decreased between Chicago and New York from 27 cents in 1866 to cents in 1878. Even from Minnesota, in the far West, the cost of carriage to New York has been reduced to only 26 cents (about 13d.) per bushel. It is stated by the “Field” that the lowness of tho through rates from the Western States has injured wheat lands on the Atlantic slopes to the extent of nearly three-fourths of their legitimate value. These low rates of carriage are, as might be expected, the result of severe competition, and are not likely to be permanent; but in the meantime it is certain that the British consumer is a gainer to the extent of the saving in the actual prime cost of the wheat placed on the London market. Having regard to those facts, we were rather inclined to rejoice lately when we found that although the area actually under the plough in New Zealand had increased during the past year by 175,000 acres, yet the land under wheat had only increased by about 20,000 acres. The yield per acre was estimated at considerably less than in the previous year. The best authorities are agreed that wheat-growing and exporting countries seldom prosper long, and judging by the above quoted American returns there seems but little prospect of New Zealand competing successfully with America as a wheat-exporting country. The first question for the farmers to decide is—What is the average cost of producing a bushel of wheat in New Zealand, and placing it in the market, the only available market for exjported wheat being London ! Mr. A. Y. Wilson, in “Macmillan’s Magazine,’’ quotes some American calculations as to tho cost in America, which go to show that a fair estimate puts the cost of producing a quarter of wheat at twenty shillings, or half-a-crovvn a bushel. The

statist who works out this result gives the cost of all the details of agricultural operations, but does not include interest on the first cost of the farm and its necessary improvements. He says that while the fertility of the different States varies, ranging from ten up to sixteen bushels per acre, the average for the whole of the United States for the last five years does not exceed eleven bushels per acre. The fertility of New Zealand is considerably above this standard, the average yield of wheatlastyear being close upon 23 bushels to the acre. It is possible that as the practice, of New Zealand farmers gradually approaches high farming, the average yield of the soil will be increased, but this time may be long delayed. At present virgin soil is chiefly dealt with, and the result of past experience in other newly-settled countries forbids us to expect anything but a steady process of exhaustion by continual cropping, until the average produce is so small as to leave no margin of profit. The above calculation from American sources give the amount that will exactly return to the grain-grower his outlay, leaving no margin for cost of carriage and other expenses. The farther question which New Zealand wheat-growers have to consider is whether they work under conditions of climate, cost of labor and cultivation, distance from a market, &c., sufficiently favorable to enable them to compete successfully with their American rivals. Seeing that the average yield of oats in New Zealand is over thirty bushels to the acre, that it is a far less exhausting crop, and far less liable to damage from high wind or wet harvest weather, and it would seem to be a more desirable crop. In addition to this, oat-straw is a useful and nourishing fodder it the crop is cut before it is dead ripe. Despite the unfavorable reports of the English harvest, it would appear that with America to compete with, the prospects of New Zealand wheat exporters are not very bright. Although in 1878 the exports of New Zealand wheat amounted to 1,700,000 bushels, as against 839,000 bushels in 1877, we do not anticipate that there will be so large an export trade in the coming year. The wheat exported was valued in 1878 at close upon five shillings per bushel, and this was probably an extreme valuation. Wheatgrowers for export will probably obtain a somewhat better price for their produce this year than last, but the agricultural returns show that the results of the wheat-growing experiments upon a large scale which have been conducted in New Zealand within the last two years have not been sufficiently remunerative to tempt the growers to go on increasing the area under wheat. New Zealand is better fitted by climate and position to supply oats to the southern hemisphere than wheat, and the check which has been put upon wheat-growing for export will probably prove beneficial.