PROBABLE TROUBLE IN INDIA.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIII, Issue 5326, 23 April 1878, Page 3

PROBABLE TROUBLE IN INDIA.

THE NEW INDIAN FRONTIER POLICY. The Spectator, commenting on Lord Salisbury’s despatch sanctioning a change in the administrative arrangements of North Western India, observes that the reason assigned for the change is on the fa.ce of it a sound one ; but it is to be feared that there is behind a desire to facilitate a dangerous change of policy. The effect will be to increase the importance and interest of our action in Central Asia, and consequently to increase the inclination of the Viceroy’s Government to act there. The Frontier Commissioner charged with all foreign policy is sure to consider that foreign policy important, to represent its importance to his chiefs, and gradually to lead them to sanction “ decisive courses,” which can end in nothing but the occupation of States beyond the hills. Governing peasants and herdsmen is dull work compared with writing despatches about foreign States, watching or imagining Russian intrigues, diplomatising with Cabul or Khelat, making oneself “felt” in Herat or Teheran, and managingthehost of clever spies through whom alone we can obtain intelligence of Shore Ali’s policy or the proposals of Russian intriguing agents. India, which has a frontier nearly as perfect as that of England, will be always talking of expeditious and always in a state of semi-panic, and England will be drawn into that rivalry of intrigue with Russia which is of all political movements the one which most diminishes the tranquil progress of the Empire. AFGHANISTAN. The Timm, referring to the military preparations which the Ameer of Cabul is said to be making, says it can scarcely think he would be insensate enough to make the attempt of attacking ns. It is quite possible, however, that he may be agitated by our occupation of Quettab, and may wish to be in readiness to meet us in the event of our further advance into undoubted Afghan territory. As for the alleged intrigues of Russia in Afghanistan and the friendly feeling which is said to exist there towards Russia, The Times cannot profess to attach much importance to them. Russia’s hands are full, and she can spare no strength at present even for an attack on Afghanistan. We need not wonder if the semi-barbarous country which lies between England and Russian territory should feel more menaced from the former quarter than from the latter. If we keep our hold of Quettab, wo necessarily arouse the suspicion of . the country for which Quettah stands on the high road. Our position there has been asserted to mean nothing, and at the same time to have been intended to give us the means of advancing farther. The news of this morning seems to show that it is high time for us to make our choice between the two alternatives. To conquer and occupy Afghanistan is at least feasible. There is something, too, to be urged in favor of it, impolitic as it would be. But

to irritate Afghanistan,.and-to go mo .further, is more impolitic still. Deal with the country as we will, it stands as the natural barrier between Russia and ourselves. Our relations with Afghanistan may not be as vitally important as alarmists would make them out, hilt they can scarcely be thought to be indifferent to us. It is clear at present that they are disquieted, and that our suspected presence at Quettah is in no small degree the occasion of this. We ought surely to be able to convince Afghanistan that we think it to our interest that she should maintain her independence against all comers, ourselves included. INDIAN PEBILS. The attempt of The Times to gloss over and represent as of such small importance the news from its Calcutta correspondent, which it publishes this morning, is (says the Olobe) unfortunately too obviously vain. We may accept the latest news from the north*west frontier as a satisfactory sedative to the alarm naturally aroused by earlier intelligence, but we have no such reassuring antidote in regard to theattitude of Afghanistan. It is so far gratifying to learn that the hostile demonstration of the Afreedees, marching to join the Jowakia and firing on a British cavalry escort, does not necessarily mean an alliance between these troublesome neighbors. The latest news is to the effect that the Afreedees have been very indignant with the Jowakis, and have put pressure on them to sue for peace. Of a very different complexion is the announcement that the Ameer of Babul is mossing troops at Candahar, It may be that the ill-feeling excited against Persia in consequence of the award of the arbitrators, by which that Power has obtained the province of Seistau, has determined the Ameer to threaten the Persian power ; but it is quite as likely that the movement is meant to menace England. If there is ill-feeling towards the Shah’s Government there is no good feeling towards the Empress of India, and the Ameer is frank enough to make no attempt to cloak his hostile feelings to England. What gives its most alarming significance to his attitude is the fact—of which there is no dpubt—of Russian intrigues in Afghanistan, Russian envoys are represented {The Times' Calcutta correspondent says) as constantly passing to and from Cabnl, and as being treated with much consideration there. We may be confident that, in the event of serious troubles, the Indian Government would be well able to hold its own against the Ameer, and even to conquer and occupy his territory. But that means a complete revolution in the military situation, such as it has hitherto been considered. Afghanistan, instead ol being a barrier against possible Russian attack, has to all intents and purposes become a Russian outwork, bringing the Muscovite military power into immediate contact with the British. Russian intrigue has won its first victories, and will, no doubt, be followed up sedulously and ceaselessly.