PERMANENT AND FLUCTUATING SOURCES OF THE ENGLISH REVENUE.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIII, Issue 5302, 23 March 1878, Page 1 (Supplement)

PERMANENT AND FLUCTUATING SOURCES OF THE ENGLISH REVENUE.

(From the World.)

It is not pleasant to commence the year with the prospect or only the apprehension of a deficit. It is plain, however, from the revenue returns for tlio three quarters of the fiscal year ended 31st ult., that Sir Stafford Northcote must be more fortunate in the last quarter than he was even in the corresponding period of the preceding year, if that is to be avoided. Dull times, stagnant trade, reduced wages, and slack work among our working population have had their inevitable effects upon the apeudiug powers of all classes. This is notable in the decrease iu the yield of customs and excise, which—with the exception of a couple of weeks early in the first three months of tho financial year, when the fear of increased spirit-duties led to an exceptional clearance of spirits fron bond—have steadily dropped away, during the nine moths. The result is that, notwithstanding unusually favorable returns under most other heads, and the abundant yield of the income-tax, the net increase on the three quarters is only £115,518, whereas the Chancellor of the Exchequer counted upon an increase of £455,000 on the year. It is not impossible, of course, that the last quarter of the fiscal year may see a turn in the tide, and that instead of further declension there may be advance ; and when wo remember what occurred iu the fourth quarter of 1876-77, we are Tittle inclined to dogmatize on the point. It is eminently improbable, however, that this will be tho case, and much more likely that customs and excise will. further fall away. The question of immediate importance, then, is, is the expansion under tho other heads of the returns Tikely to bo so great as to counterbalance the

falling away of the customs and excise ? Modesty dictates absence of doginati-m here also. It will be observed that the large decrease of i£303,000_ on the nine months, under miscellaneous, is due to the postponement of some Indian repayments which, presumably, will come into the current quarter’s accounts. This itself brings up the Chancellor’s increase to very nearly the figure at which he estimated it. It is not certain therefore that we mav not see such continuous increases under stamps, income-tax, post office, and other items as wdl go far to redress the adverse balance ; and until we know what the expenditure has been it would be well to refrain from rash prophecies, such as were so conspicuously falsified last year. No surer sign of the magnitude of England’s wealth could be rendered than is furnished by the increase of nearly half a million under property and income-tax during the three quarters of the financial twelve months in a time of stagnant trade. Sir Stafford Northcote will, nevertheless, be able to account himself a lucky Chancellor if he escapes a deficit. One point which must strike the critical observer in examining these revenue returns is the evidence they supply of the growth of a tendency to increase under certain fixed heads which are not directly dependent on the fluctuations of trade. The national revenue is not wholly provided by taxes. Besides the money received from that source, the Government secures considerable profits by rendering services to the public which could not, perhaps, be so well rendered through private competition. The post office, the telegraph service, and interest on advances are the three chief items of this character. By keeping in its hands the conveyance of the letters and telegrams of the public, the State realises a handsome profit, which is now further increased through the services it renders as a public banker. The advance of money to local authorities is a growingly profitable business ; for on the nine months the increase over the corresponding period of the previous year was as much as £160,000. It requires no very lively imagination to suppose such a growth in the profits derived from sources wholly apart from taxation as will go lar to counterbalance fluctuating customs and excise. These permanent sources of revenue will then have a steadying effect on the general income, so that even though the “ elasticity” which a premature generalisation a few years ago male a “ law” of national progress be not recovered, there may he no serious fluctuations in the total revenue. Sir Stafford Northcote has more than once given signs that he is alive to the importance of these facts. In the meantime his habitual cheerfulness has not, it may be, even yet deserted him when he contemplates the revenue returns.