THE STATE OF PUBLIC OPINION IN ENGLAND.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIII, Issue 5273, 16 February 1878, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE STATE OF PUBLIC OPINION IN ENGLAND.

(From the Spectator.)

That the pro-Turkish journals should assert with monotonous regularity that tho country is with them, and eager to see tho Ministry adopt a “decided” course, is only natural. Somo’of their conductors propably believe it, and the remainder think tho assertion one ol tho common-places of party warfare. It is, however, more surprising to hear of serious politicians who believe firmly that the resistance to a war policy comes only from a class, which almost by an accident happens to include many journalists that it would disappear tho moment tho leaders showed themselves decided ; and that a dissolution, preceded by a warlike manifesto, would result in a heavy majority for Lord Beacousfleld, and Mr. Hardy. That opinion, hold as it is, is so dangerous that it is worth a careful examination, and the more so because it has one undoubted fact in its favor. It is usual with tho Emdish people, when asked by its Government whether it will go to war, to say yos. The nation, though not military, i» warlike, is apt in excited times to fret under a policy of inaction, und possesses a political instinct which teaches it that when ouco tho Government threatens war, it is best in most cases to support it, whatever the sacrifice involved. In this particular case, moreover, this readiness to fight might be expected to display itself with unusual quickness. It is felt, so far as it is felt, more strongly in London than tho provinces ; and Loudon, though it by no means governs tho Empire, often gives it a cuo. It is displayed by tho army, which has retained tho tradition of its last European

wav ; and it is approved, though with latent reserves about alliances, by a large section, peibaps a majority, of the class which, in ordinary times and upon 'other subjects, controls local opinion. Nevertheless, we doubt greatly whether the politicians who believe that the nation would support a Cabinet pledged to war with Russia are sufficiently informed, and would ask them to consider gravely the grounds of their opinion, They arc right, we imagine, only up to a point just short of that at which support would be effective. The army, though we are far from underrating the value of its opinion’ upon a question as much military as political, in an English electoral contest does not count at all. “ Society,” though extremly powerful, is by no means omnipotent, and on this occasion is divided into two bodies, nearly equal perhaps in number, but very unequal in zeal and determination. Those who are opposed to such a war are finally opposed to it. They will wage no war with Russia until the Turks are out of the field, and alliance with that race an impossibility. If they are to fight they will fight after the burial of the SuHanet. If a war policy is announced, all Liberal “ society without distinction between the “ Professors and the wealthy, will resist as one man, the old Whigs, with the Cavendishes at the bead of them, being on this point aa trustworthy as Mr. Gladstone or Mr. Forster. It will not be a question of one orator of genius stumping tile country, though those who underrate the influence of Mr. Gladstone when absolutely convinced and roused to the full height of bis powers, do not understand the British electorate, but every Liberal member, man of influence, and journalist, will do his utmost to advert a struggle which, if it did not end in calamity, must end in disgrace. On the other hand, the approving section of society, even if the more numerous—which wo doubt, for “ society” is not confined to Loudon—has reserves in. the depths of its mind, and wishes for war, if an Egyptian policy is impossible, if there are guarantees that Germany will bo neutral, and if trustworthy and powerful allies have been secured beforehand. Even while provoking war, its members praise the official neutrality, and fidget themselves with ideas of what might happen if England and Russia were completely occupied in a long and costly campaign. ; Bismarck might appear at the mouth of the Rhine., A. great many of them, moreover, “ would rather be. without Turkey.” They do not go farther than that. They profess either a cynical indifference to Turkish oppression or an ignorant confidence that the Christians are just as bad ; but at heart they are doubtful whether even in a struggle with a bad Power it is right to seek the alliance of a worse. They would rather kill the boar, if they can,, without .the hyaena's help, and do not like enlisting murderers even to beat burglars. Their doubts injure their energy, and deprive them of the advantage of the complete conviction which, animates . their opponents. Nor are they at all sure that the music-hall opinion, of which they nevertheless make much, is exactly equivalent to popular opinion. They do not instinctively reverence Loudon “ cads.” If they must, go below intelligent opinion, they like to have with .them the opinion which, though unintelligent, has behind it in the last resort the weight of physical force. Then as to that opinion, which, whether democracy bo a good or an evil institution, must, as our Constitution now stands, and in great crisis like a dissolution, govern us all, where is the evidence in which the pro-Turk trusts? Is it in the journals! The greatest of ail the journals,. and the one which most closely represents well-to-do opinion, is definitely opposed to such a war. That it would turn round if the nation had spoken, and spoken : adversely, maybe true; but it has today to, represent opinion as it is, aiul the opinion is unfavorable to a pro-Turkish war. Of the three London morning papers which are really popular and bought by multitudes, one, the Telegraph, is no doubt pro-Turkish up to the point of fighting for Turkey as Turkey, and has probably ’ benefited, ■ and certainly not lost, by adopting that line. It would be quite fairtoassnme, indeed, that tbekind of mind which admires the Telegraph is throughout England in favor of war. But then the Daily News, which is directly on the other side, and would resist war, has not suffered either ; while the third, the Standard, which has a special hold over moderate rural Conservatives, and almost always says—with one or two exceptions on philanthropic points—what, they say, expresses with singular exactness the view which the advocates of war dislike most of all, a view compounded of dislike of Russia, sympathy with the Ottomans, as a brave though tyrannical caste unfairly assailed, and aversion to enter on war unless this country is more directly menaced than at present. The evening papers—the Echo excepted—are no doubt exceedingly pro-Turkish, and even warlike, but then the evening papers have to influence men who have already imbibed their ideas and information from other and earlier journals. In the provinces, again, so far as wo know, there is no decidedly warlike journal. We cannot, of course, pretend to speak absolutely, but so far as our own experience extends and it covers the habitual and persistent reading of every provincial journal which we know to have an exceptional circulation —there is not au important provincial paper in England in favor of war. There are plenty very suspicions of Russia. There are one or two very desirous indeed that the Conservative Cabinet should go on. But there are none which vote decidedly for war. That symptom is not of itself, we admit, quite decisive. The daily experience of a quarter of a century has convinced us that there are a few cases in which the journalists, though represeutinp no doubt their constituencies, . arc personalty much more strongly convinced than their, constituents are this wo believe to be undeniably true of many fiscal and nearly all humanitarian questions —but in tins instance where is the smallest sign of any scission. Whore arc the, warlike letters ? Where are the .large meetings enthusiastic for Turkey, or for more decided action ? Where are the borough members hotly condemning the quiescence of the Cabinet ? Has anybody followed Mr.'Gorst’s courageous load? Lancashire, iu the last election* returned only Tories. Is Lancashire eager for war, or doss it not rather congratulate itself on the skill with which the Ministry of, its heart—only fancy Lancashire loving Disraeli, and the possibility that Sir Robert Peel may know it!— has avoided war. Scotland is unanimous against war, and although Irish Catholics _ are supposed to be pro-Turkish, there, is little proof of the supposition, and a profound certainty that any series of events which either increased German prestige or reconciled Germany and Franco at the expense of Belgium add pro-Turks declare either of these results possible—would bn most displeasing to them. Outside Loudon there is not any great city with a trace of strong wai feeling, and wo fail to,find any oven in rural districts in the North. The general toue is one of quiescence everywhere, and this while the majority firmly believe that tho Government will remain neutral, and before tho recognised Liberal leaders have been excited by the danger of coming hostilities to apeak out. This quiescence does not imply at present Liberal reaction. On tho contrary, it implies content with tho attitude of tho governing committee. But it would allow of a reaction if war were threatened, and if the Liberals wore .suddenly compelled to exert to the uttermost, .uuddr. circumstances .which would restore to them, for the. moment at nil events, the powerful aid of their best non-com-missioned officers, the rulers of the Nonconformist Churches, who on this subject would be as zealous and.ns united as if tho eud wore Disestablishment.

We do not- sayi and do not intend to imply, that the majority of British electors are proRussian. They ,are not. The one policy for which no hearing can bo obtained is the true policy—that England'should,, join ..Russia, in' compelling the Saltan to surrender dominion over all Christian subjects, and _to content himself with' governing such Asiatics as are willing still to regard him, as their head. If the Russian Court is mad enough to offer any insult to this country, or treacherous enough to- make terms which would secure its own peace and profit without liberating the 'European from tbo Asiastic, the higher from the

lower potential civilisation, or even if it wade terms distinctly menacing to our one vital interest—our claim to be safe in Egypt—the nation would bo nearly unanimous for war. But looking at affairs as they stand, with no new complication added to them, and as seriously as if a dissolution were imminent, we see no reason whatever to believe that a war policy would have a majority in its favor, while we see a certainty that the division of opinion would be too deep and too fierce to admit of war. And we believe the reluctance will bo still greater after the fall of Plevna than before, for then tho Greeks, who hitherto have displayed inexcusable want of energy, would at least put in their claims to their natural heritage. And the British horror of Turkey is not complicated by any fear of Greece.