The New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY.) WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 16, 1878.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIII, Issue 5246, 16 January 1878, Page 2

The New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY.) WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 16, 1878.

Judging by the latest telegrams there does not appear to be much prospect of a termination being put to the war without farther bloodshed. That the negotiations foran armistice should fall thro ugh, almost in their inception, and after the vague promises made by the Government of the Czar, is only in keeping with Russian diplomacy and Russian- statesmen, who are notoriously amongst the most crafty and unscrupulous. The desire was doubtless to find out what concessions Turkey would make for peace at present, so that more might be demanded of her after further disaster to her arms. That Russia is bent upon completely crushing Turkey there can be little doubt, and from the tenor of late telegrams it is plain that she little dreads the intervention of the Great Powers. The ostensible object with which the Czar entered upon the war was the protection of the Christians ot European-Turkey. Time after time people were assured, both by the Government and Press of Russia, that there was no desire for a further acquisition of territory, either in Europe or Asia. The time has now arrived when the laudable intentions of the great Slav Power could be fully, given effect to, yet the war is still being carried on, with a fearful sacrifice of life lon both sides ; the overtures of Turkey for peace are treated with contempt, and the victorious legions of the Czar are making rapid strides towards Adrianople, the second city in the Ottoman dominions. Whether Russia will consent to a peace after the fall of Adrianople, as in 1829, it is difficult to say. Turkey seems completely paralysed by defeat at the present, but it .is yet possible that a grand effort will bo made to stem the tide of Russian succcess. Owing to the heavy losses both

on the field of battle and in the surrender of fortresses, it is not likely . that'the Porte will 1 be able to put anything like a sufficient number of regular forces in the field fit to cope with Russia; but there is plenty of raw material yet at hand-, to make good soldiers, and it is more than probable , that a good stand will be made behind the fortified lines which protect Constantinople, should the Russians decide to march on that city. Still it is plain that if the war is left to be fought out to the bitter end between the, two beligerents, it must end in a total collapse of the Ottoman power in Europe, and that what territory Russian ambition will be satisfied with in Asiatic Turkey must be left in the grasp of the Boar. The integrity of Turkey is already a thing of the past. No matter what complications may arise, all the country north of the Balkans is gone from her for ever. This fact is fully recognised by the neutral Powers. But it is almost equally certain that Russia will not be allowed to retain the conquered territory. England may be interested in the aggrandisement of Russia in Western Europe, but Austria is ten times more so. The very existence of Austria as a Great Power would be seriously threatened by Russia acquiring territory on her southern frontier, and having command of the Danube. The Emperor Francis Joseph must have been fully satisfied, and must have obtained sufficient guarantees from Russia before a shot was fired, that whatever Government should take the place of Turkey north of the Balkans, Russia would not establish herself there. The Czar would never have entered upon the present war without first being assured that Austria would not move, and to have obtained .this assurance he must have satisfied the House of Hapsbnrg as to the aims of Russia. But it may be said what reliance can be placed upon the promises of Russia, now that she has almost succeeded in her object of crushing Turkey. There is a very substantial guarantee indeed. Austria in a few weeks could throw half a million men across the homeward path of the Russian armies now in Bulgaria, stopping all reinforcements and supplies of provisions and munitions of war, and could probably send another half million of trained soldiers across the Danube to make short work of the Russian armies now in Bulgaria. What will Russia demand as the basis of a treaty of peace ? We suppose it may be taken as definitely settled that she will retain a considerable portion of the conquered territory in Turkish Armenia. The fortress «f Kars will remain in her hands, as affording a future base of operations against Turkey, if any power of resistance is to be left in the Ottoman people. That she has any present aims upon Constantinople is not probable. Should Russia attempt to seize upon Constantinople England would cease to protest, and would take an active part in the struggle, while the action of Austria daring the Crimean war would plainly indicate that that power would not on any consideration permit of Russia having command of the Black Soa for whoever rules at Constantinople commands the Euxine. Germany also would be opposed to,Russia possessing Stamboul, and has murejthan once hinted as much. Therefore, with the three neutral Bowers particularly interested in the settlement of the Eastern question adverse to the occupation of Constantinople by Russia no fears may be apprehended on that head. Austria is not likely to let the Danubian principalities fall into the hands of the Czar ; and, moreover, as far as we can gather, the people of the principalities would most strongly object themselves to be placed under the dominion of Russia. It is quite on the cards that at the close of the war the Czar and Goktchakoff may find that they will be allowed to reap very few solid advantages from the war, and little else but. honor may be the reward of Russia for thrashing the Turks. That was a task all Europe believed she was capable of accomplishing without an effort; but all Europe was disappointed, and it took all the might of Russia to conquer the “Sick Man.” Still we think that it is an extreme view to take that the Russian armies will, quit all the territories they have overrun, and, as we have said before, an extension of frontier in Asia may be looked for. Of course, the most important point with us is how far British interests may bo affected. Some writers contend that the acquisition of territory in Asia by Russia is really of more consequence as affecting the interests of England than the occupation of the Danubian principalities. In the latter case, Austria and Germany might be expected to keep a sharp eye on Russian aggression ; but of all civilised Powers England is the one chieflyiuforested in the encroachments of Russia in Asia! As long as England desires to retain India, it is felt that some curb must be put upon Russian aggrandisement in the East; but it can scarcely be said that a slice of territory in Armenia, including Erzorourn and the fortress of Kars, would threaten nur Eastern possessions. One danger of the present situation is that Turkey and Russia may come to terms without reference to the other Powers. But England is much interested in the settlement of the Eastern question, and she will not allow her interests to . be ignored by either side. Of course, Russian views cannot altogether be overlooked. The subject is a very complicated one, and the next turn of events may involve the mother country in war. Still it may safely bo assumed that England will not enter upon a war for the mere propping up of Turkey, and the interests of Great Britain must bo affected in some more direct manner than we have yet been apprised of by telegram before she asserts her right with the sword.