THE ENGLISH HARVEST — GLOOMY PROSPECTS.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXII, Issue 5167, 13 October 1877, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE ENGLISH HARVEST GLOOMY PROSPECTS.

London, September Ist. —James Caird, iu his annual letter to The Times on harvest prospects, says : The exteut of the wheat acreage is greater by nearly 200,000 acres than that of last year, but 400,000 acres, or one ninth, is below the average of the ttn preceding years. On a careful analysis of returns from farmers in various parts of the country, I find that in twelve of the principal wheat counties, which represent one-half of the wheat growth of tho Kingdom, three quarters of the returns show that the crop is below the average, while one quarter gives an average crop. Xa the remainder of the country the deficiency is somewhat less in proportion! the returns show a very general deficiency ; they are below an average crop, but not greatly below it. Generally, the crop is better thin that of 1563, 1867 or 1875, the three worst crops in thirty-four years ; but I fear it will not be equal even to the defective crop of last year, aud that notwithstanding the increased acreage we shall not have more than between nine and ten million quarters of the home crop. The reduction of consumption consequent on the enhanced price may reduce the year's requirements to 20,5'i0,000 quarters, on two conditions —strict economy aud the early harvest of next year. The foreign supply we should, nuder these circumstances, require might be limited to eleven million quarters. This takes the most favorable view of our position, for nntth if the Trent most of the crop is still unharvested, and is subject to the risks of a late season and un-ettled weather. If we were the only country that required help, and if we could rely on a continuance of the large scile of foreign imports which has marked the last four years, there would be little cause for apprehension : but, with the exception of some parts of Spain, all Western Europe is deficient, the ports of the Black Sea are closed, while a renewal of the famine in India can hardly admit of any increase of large supplies received from that quarter during the present year. We must therefore look to America for a considerable increase even on her great exports of the last four years ; aud if the war in Turkey continues, the vast resources of the United States and Canada will indeed be severely taxed to make good the wants of this country and Western Europe. The small home crop in 1875, supplemented by the largest import we have ever yet received, afforded 5J- bushels per head. The deficient crop of 1876, with an import which somewhat exceeded twelve million quarters, has afforded very little over five bushels per head. If the. Black Sea ports continue closed for the coming harvest year, we may have to reserve consumption to considerably less than five bushels a head. The other home-grown crops promise little aid. Barley has been deficient, aud oats not above an average, while potatoes are much diseased. In 1566 and 1867, when, from too deficient crops and comparatively small imports, the quantity of wheat for consumption fell below five bushels a head, the price was 64 shillings. Iu the past twenty-five years the quantity has on several occasions fallen below that mark, and the price of these years has averaged 60 shillings. If, therefore, the Black Sea ports continue closed during tho coming harvest year, we may be thankful if it goes no higher. London, September 3.—The Agricultural Gazette says :—We have returns from Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, from Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridge, Bedfordshire aud Essex, from Kent, Sussex, Hants, Wlits and Dorset, and from Shropshire, Staffordshire and Lancashire, separately, aud tho returns thus received in separate lots do nothing whatever to diminish the gloomy character of the prospect. In the first of these groups, of 31 wheat reports 21 are below the average, aud only one above ; of 30 barley reports, 15 are average and 14 under ; of 29 oat reports, 17 are average and only 2 over. In the eastern counties, group of 44 wheat reports, 38 are under the average ; of 41 barley reports, 26 are under the average ; of 37 oat reports, 24 are average, 6 over and 9 under. In the southern counties, group of 36 wheat reports, 9 aro average and all the rest midei'; of 35 barley reports, 24 are average, and 9 uuder ; of 36 oat reports, 19 are average, 6 over and 11 \mder. In the western counties, group of 16 wheat report?, 12 are under average ; of 17 barley reports, 8 are undtr average; of 18 oat reports, 6 are under average, 10 average and 2 over.