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New Zealand Times, Volume XXXII, Issue 5059, 11 June 1877, Page 2

Mr. Gkant Duff, M.P., whose sympathy with Russia is avowed, wrote his second and concluding article on "Russia," for "The Nineteenth Century," at a time when " recent discussions" had forced him "to consider warlike eventualities;" but when he still thought war not probable, and when his views as to what the Northern Empire might be permitted to achieve were certainly out of accord with those of a large proportion of the English race. But Mr. Grant Duff has ideas which represent a policy that can be understood; and those ideas are worth consideration. He admits that the Russia of Nicholas had much in it to which England might well be opposed ; but he does not admit that, therefore, England should be opposed to the Russia of Alexander. The "tendency of the country is forward, and not slowly forward ;" but England's attitude towards her should " be based on full knowledge of all relevant facts connected with her present strength and relations to all other countries, and on a calm calculation of what she wants, and is likely to want, before she reaches the limit of her ambition—a calculation made with a view of ascertaining what can be granted without injury to ourselves or others; and what should be firmly resisted. * * * There is no special English, as distingished from common European interest, that can bo menaced at any time by Russia, which we are not strong enough most amply to Drotect." But we should act with other nations if, and as far as, they are prepared to act. With Russia's internal affairs, we have nothing to do ; nor with her annexing Khiva and Bokhara, or any other territory along her '' natural path, to the north of the great ranges." We ought by diplomacy to try to prevent her passing Merv ; for that might mean aggression in Afghanistan. Her being at Merv would, however, really mean little to England, except that tho Russophobists would have ground on which to work for the embittermont of relations between the two countries. We ought to look jealously towards Herat, for its possession would be useless to Russia except for the purpose of interfering witli England. But "there is no evidence that serious Russian statesmen have the slightest intention of meddling with Herat." The exclusion of the Russian fleet from the Eastern Mediterranean is not England's work : it is a necessary covollary of Turkish independence. The provisions of the Treaty of Paris, in this respect, apply to all the world. If Russia ever got possession of Constantinople, would she allow free use of the Dardanelles by armed vessels'? Certainly not. "Under no circumstances, as long as a great city and its suburbs extend from the Sea of Marmora almost to the Symplegades, could you allow the Bosphorus to be treated as if it were the Straits of Dover or the Sound." The Mediterranean Powers, not England, are really interested in keeping the Dardanelles as they are : Russia might, in very conceivable circumstances, be much pleased to know that all her southern coast was free from attack except by Turkey. Mr. Grant Duff implicitly believes what the Tsar said to Lord Augustus Loftus ; ho knows that many of the most sensible Russians would dread the acquisition of Constantinople by their country; yet " although the sentiment which urges the mass of the Russian people towards Constantinople is very vague, it is nevertheless very strong, and sooner or later it will take her there, if nothing stronger than an Empire which has been wounded to death is put in her place." But why should Englishmen specially object to Russia ruling in Constantinople ?

Tier being there would mean that the whole of the Eastern Peninsula must necessarily fall, at least for a time, into her hands. From the Solvetzky monastery on the White Sea to the hermitage whose light twinkles over the vEgean from tho steep of Cape Malca, there would be one vast Muscovite Empire. Now, who would I>2 benefited by this ? The Greeks, who would see their national aspirations, legitimate and illegitimate, swept over by a rule hardly less odious to them than that of the Turks ? A ustro - Hungary, which would find it3olf cut olf from the Black Sea ? The Magyars, who would see so enormous a weight thrown into the scale of their Slavonic opponents as to be altogether crushed and overmastered? The Germans of Sis-Lcithania and Germany proper, who would see an end to the advance, hitherto constant in these latter days, of German civilisation down the Danube valley? Koumania, which would be swallowed up and destroyed ? Italy, which would have to provide against another possible danger in the Mediterranean, and that da.nger close to her own shores? France, winch would see one of tile cardinal points of her policy set aside? Or the .Unman Church, which would have to deplore an overwhelming advantage gained by her Eastern rival? What are the special interests of England in keeping Russia out of Constantinople, as compared with these great European interests? If all other Powers chose to neglect their interests, it would of course be no business of ours to light what is much more their battle than it is ours.

Russia ought, reasonably, to have a largo share in influencing the future of the peoples of the Eastern Peninsula : but to talk of other Powers who claim influence in that direction as though they were officious intruders, is a pretension that goes beyond bounds. England has quito as good a right as any other Power to havo an opinion regarding the affairs of Turkey and Greece- ; their recent reliance upon England the Greeks "havo been giving more proof of political sagacity than they have done for many a day." Some people have thought that England might bo content to see Russia in Constantinople, if only wo held St. Jean d'Acro and the country behind it. Hut so to think, is to attributo too much importance) to the Euphrates route to India. \\ r c shall at some time, no doubt, havo that route ; but it will bo only a sort of fair-weather road for quiet times, and opinions as to it "should not be on any account allowed to hide from our view the vast importance of the Egyptian transit." Egypt is the only country, except India, Afghanistan, and the British Isles, where Britain can be, at any moment, a groat military as well as a great naval power. Falling back upon the Capo routo to India is not to bo contemplated. To hold St. Jean d'Acro, and so to interfere with Syria, would excite against England just susceptibilities on the part of other Powers. The great communions of East and West agree at least so far as to think that they and their children havo a better right to be in Syria than English heretics havo. Othors say that to hold the Dardanelles would be enough for the security of England ; but from that, Mr. Grant-Duff entirely dissent. "Even if we could sot down Gibraltar at Gallipoli, or near the Tumulus of Achili.es, the position would be intolerable, and the whole strength of tho Empire might be strained in vain to resist a foo which would, ex hi/polhesi, bo in possession of the whole of the Eastern peninsula."

It may be inferred from these views, that Mr. Ghaxt Duff believes in the wisdom of what appears to be the policy of the English Government—not to become actively concerned in the war, if to keep out of it be fairly possible ; but not to permit communication with India to be jeopardised, and to take and to hold Egypt from the moment when danger of the Egyptian route being seriously interfered with lias unmistakeably been made manifest. One may hope that the English Government does not more nearly approach Mr. Gkant Duff. That gentleman, up to the middle of March last, believed in an "amended status quo," without war. That, of course, could not last long; and "all that has happened will only have had the effect of bringing Russia a step nearer to the fulfilment of her long-cherished hopes, unless Europe takes wise and united action soon." In September last, Mr. Duff dreamt of Russia and England and other great Powers forming a partnership "for creating a new Power, whose seat should be at Constantinople ;" and when that dream had faded, and there was still (from his point of view) no visible warcloud, Mr. Gkant Duff, predicting total failure for all Turkish attempts at reform, could think it not " impossible that Europe may see, in the accident which has connected so closely the German, Russian, and English thrones, a way out of a terrible imbroglio—a method of escape for the Christians from Mussulman intolerance and the perhaps worse tyranny of their own clergy, combined with the most absolute security to the disciples of the Koran for equality of civil and political rights." Mr. Grant Duff hopes that if this is regarded as a dream, it will not bo thought "a very fantastic one:" but since he wrote, the war which he believed Russia would surely not provoke has been begun ; and those who like to dream dreams had better wait until they can see what stuff is left to make them of, after battle fields have been cleared of rotting human flesw, national and natural passions have been checked, and diplomatists have in their wisdom decided what shall be the first great outcome of all the inconceivable human misery, and the scarcely realisable waste of money, which the war declared by Russia has caused.