New Zealand Times. (PUBLISHED DAILY.) TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 1877.

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXII, Issue 5054, 5 June 1877, Page 2

New Zealand Times. (PUBLISHED DAILY.) TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 1877.

The European telegrams received and published during the last few days leave the readers of them in no small state of incertitude. Just as, without hearing of any formal declaration of war, we suddenly were informed of the Emperor of Russia's address to his army, and the advance of the troops on the Turkish frontiers, so now wo heard of a sudden that the Russian Ambassadors to the Courts of Great Britain, Germany, and Austria had left for St. Petersburg. That, of course, might mean that war was imminent between the Great Powers of Europe, as represented by the- English, Germans, and Austrians on one side, and Russia and France on the other. But again, it might only mean the occurrence of a set of circumstances not necessarily likely to result in war, but necessitating the presence of the Russian Ambassadors at their diplomatic head-quarters. Pollowing on this, however, we had telegrams which seemed by implication to point at the existence of a European misunderstanding. Such a telegram was that which mentioned that rumors had come from the Hague that peace was likely to be secured by the mediation of Germany. This could scarcely refer to peace between Russia and Turkey, for though it is plain that the Tsar has so far got the worst of it in his encounter with the Sultan, his reverses as yet have been, comparatively speaking, mere ileabites, and he dare not risk the feeling that a peace with Turkey would now engender in his own country. A perusal of certain chapters of Mr. McKenzie Wallace's book will show this for a certainty. It must almost be taken for granted, then, that the peace to be secured by the mediation of Germany must mean a European peace threatened with disturbance ; and that this would seem likely is shown by the utterances of Mr. Boltrke in the British House of Commons, which were published in our telegrams yesterday morning. It may therefore be taken as tolerably well established that an imbroglio has arisen in Europe which, as has been stated, ranges on one side England, Germany, and Austria, and on the other side Russia and France. But it is not too much to say that so far as direct information is concerned, the telegrams leave us completely in the dark as to what that imbroglio may be, and how it has arisen. We can only fall back on conjecture, and it is not so difficult, by indirect evidence, to arrive at a conjecture seeming highly probable. Since hostilities commenced, careful consideration will show that only two events have taken place which could account for the rupture of the general peace of Europe which is shadowed by our telegrams. One of these is the invasion.of Servia (again an integral part of the Turkish Empire) by Russia. Austria has plainly intimated what she would do in such an event ; but it is scarcely likely, even if Russia threatened to cross the Servian frontier, and Austria at once occupied the principalities she designated, and massed a force on the Hungarian border, that either England or Italy would feel called upon to interfere. The action of Austria would of itself be so far sufficient for and in accord with their attitude. But the second event which has happened, taken in connection with the first - named, does seem quite sufficient to account for the apparently hostile bearing which has manifested itself between three of the great European Powers and two others. It will be remembered that the Russian fleet on the east coast of North America was suddenly ordered to the Mediterranean. Amongst our latest received telegrams are those notifying that the German fleet had also rendezvoused in the Mediterranean, and that the British ironclads had boon ordered to the Piraeus. It is pretty certain that the entry of the Russian fleet into the Mediterranean, and its consequent threatening of extending hostilities beyond the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, if not of attacking the supremacy of Turkey over those passages, would be accepted by England, Germany, and Austria as a casus belli, and thac the position of affairs in Europe now amounts to this, that it has been officially intimated to Russia that any attempt on her part to attack Turkey by the Mediterranean, or indeed to convert a portion of that sea or its coasts into a scene of hostilities, will be followed by action on the part of the three Powers mentioned. In the meantime the Russian Ambassadors to those Powers would have left for St. Petersburg. France would either not have joined with the three Powers, and with Italy would intend to keep neutral, or might contemplate, as the price of an alliance with Russia, the recapture of Alsace and Lorraine, which Russia would promise to render feasible by undertaking to give Germany enough to do on another part of her borders. But though, as wo have learned by telegraph, one of the most recent incidents in European movements has been the strengthening of the Gorman forces in Alsace and Lorraine, it is not likely that France would risk another war with Germany when the latter Power was in alliance with Austria and England, a combination that could defy the world almost. Of course, as has been said, the explanations which have been furnished are at best but conjectures ; they seem, however, to be conjectures) bearing every evidence with them of probability.