FRENCH AFFAIRS.

New Zealand Spectator and Cook's Strait Guardian, Volume VII, Issue 587, 19 March 1851, Page 4

FRENCH AFFAIRS.

[From the Times, November I.]

Under the most democratic form of government which has yet been attempted in Europe, with an Executive power deriving its authority from direct popular election, and a National Assembly which claims an active share in all the resolutions of the State, it is a subject of inexhaustible wonder to see to what narrow interests, to what petty cabals, and to what personal influences the policy and the destinies of the French Republic are now reduced. For with this extreme publicity of the whole machinery of government, and this ostentatious responsibility of its chief servants the real administration of the country and the powers which actually govern its affairs have become secret and irresponsible. Those who form a correct opinion or a plausible conjecture as to the state of France have ceased to look upon the surface, or to take much account of the nominal institutions of that country ; and by a perversion of all reasonable chances, the future is supposed to proceed from the shouts of a squadron of boisterous troopers, from Louis Napoleon’s empty cassette, or from General Changarnier’s sphynx-like attitude at the levee or the review. Everybody is content to believe that these accidents or intrigues are potent enough to prevail over the rights of the Republic, if it has rights, and over the will of the nation, if such a will can be said to aspire to any other result than mere tranquillity and order. In order to follow the train of events in France, we are, therefore, brought back to a faint and intricate track of petty animosities and personal rivalry, which the scent is too cold, and the interest too weak for us laboriously to unravel. Louis Napoleon himself, or at least the shallow and sanguine faction which forms his chief society, had probably entertained vague hopes that amidst the progress of the summer and the militarv shows of the autumn, some popular breeze would spring up in their favour, and drive them towards the object of their passionate longings. Yet they lay, like a ship becalme 1, within sight of the splendid prize they could not reach, and all that was obtained in exchange for so many efforts and so many bottles of champagne was the “hip-hip-hurra” of a few dragoons for an imaginary Emperor. But these occurrences, though in themselves more fit matters of derision than of alarm, served to revive the suspended animation of me political body which represents the Assembly. The Minister of War, General Hautpoul, was caHed over the coals with great animation, and on the repetition of his alleged offence of encouraging or allowing illegal cries by the soldiery was formally censured. The President seems to have thought it prudent to sacrifice for the present his zealous minister, and General Hautpoul was transferred to the Governor-Generalship of Algeria from the War Department, though this change was accompanied by marks of undiminished favour and confidence—none of disgrace. So far a concession, and a prudent one, was made to the Assembly and to General Changarnier, who was known to disapprove the conduct of the minister; but the successor of General Hautpoul, in the person of General Schramm, bad been selected for the very same qualities which had just caused the dismissal of the former officer from his post, and the very measure which had been contemplated by the one as a side-blow at General Changarnier was speedily executed by the other.

Not daring to attack openly and in 1 • I person the powerful military chief who the army and mainly supports ment, but yet resolved to punish the ‘ill displayed by the Etat Major at the « 1 review, the President and his Cabinet jl mined to strike a blow at General Neu “M second in command to Changarnier iqpM and intimately connected with that imn ri|, | personage. General Neumayer Waij f 1 transferred from the metropolis to a p- . H command. Upon this announcement | Commandant of the army in Paris th oa , M to address the strongest remonstrance t il Minister of war, although in fact su c | J o^, | monstrances were a plain proof that Gen **’l Changarnier’s political position has his favour the common obligations of mifji i duty. Thrice in the day did the. meet to resolve the knotty point whether formidable protector was to be resisted J obeyed, and at a late hour, though thefc°| try held firm, and the ordinance removin'! Neumayer to Rennes actually -ppearcuij Moniteur, it was still doubtful whata^j | the issue of the struggle. We do not at present anticipate any in to | tant results from this conflict, and it is I as improbable that Louis Napoleon will JI the knot by removing General ChangatiiJ from the command of Paris as it is that General will proclaim a dictatorship and sell the President to Vincennes. These are'/ course extreme and improbable expediM though in these times and in the present suS of France it is not always what is most extol vagant that is most unlikely. But whatnJ be distinctly traced in this transaction j 3 growth of that division and animosity wiiJ the respective positions of the Presidentnl General Changarnier have rendered ahi inevitable between them ; and the imporlul of this fact is materially increased by the J proaching convocation of the National AssrJ bly, and by the difficulties of another kinditl which the President is notoriously expostl] On a former occasion he owed the additioJ vote of income to the decisive language offij neral Changarnier, which prevailed over ih evident repugnance of the Assembly; Is there is reason to apprehend that the tint and the motive for such services are already past. Relying to a great extent on the array for the maintenance and extension of lb power, Louis Napoleon has failed in his at. tempts to attach to his person and his cause the most considerable members of thatprofession, In particular General Bedeau, Lamoriciere, and now probably Chau, gamier, must all be reckoned as very coll supporters, if not direct opponents. Nonet! them would probably consent to the prolongation of powers which was once contemplate! and hoped for—still less would they be parlia to the ridicule and violence of a military cot} d’etat. In fact there is nearly as mod chance of a military movement against lit President’s pretensions as in favour of diets, and it is not impossible that the personal ambition of the Generals may ere long be met sured against his own. These dissensions threaten to increase, 3 that be possible, the uncertainty and insecurity of the political condition of France, forb a country in which all established rights bin been so frequently abrogated and all authority overthrown, the occurrence of the most trifling incident may be the forerunner of anvolution, and men endeavour with superst? tious anxiety to read their fate in every strar thnr rlriOo I._ sr J Tl.„ ...,,1, —— - IU HllJUnaiUi JL 11C II UMI »w I great scheme or fixed plan of action is framed by any one, and that no comprehensive raid is at work on the herculean task of mouldkjl these scattered fragments into an empire o f, | throne. Men who are too weak to their destiny must be content to wait up ol Fortune, and as the Roman satirist long $ expressed it, it is their incapacity which placed her among the gods. The statesme» of France of every shade of opinion have become the mere spectators of the slow and in* gular rotation of the machinery they once so ambitious to direct. Even the dis* cussions or divisions of the Cabinet, f to) which it is said that two important are likely to retire, have lost all interest; a -' when one enquires who may chance to be l { successors of these Ministers, we are ans< { * ed by some name of perplexing obscurity) * if the reign of stop-gaps over a great ns ll9 ! could be indefinitely prolonged. The I 1! must have fallen to its lowest ebb before s-j--blocks could emerge from the surface of 1 ‘ waters. » ' ?