U.S. CONDITIONS

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume LXIV, 10 January 1931, Page 11

U.S. CONDITIONS

REVIVING CONFIDENCE It is not generally thought that any country can expect much relief from the existing depression until a worldwide recovery of trade commences. For the first signs of such a movement Australia looks to such centres of commerce as London and New York. Just to hand is the latest monthly review of the Guarantee Trust Company of New York, one of the greatest banking institutions in the States. The review says there is an increasing feeling that the country is at or near the bottom of the depression, and that some progress may be expected at any time. While not much can be cited by. way of concrete evidence to support this view, the very fact of reviving confidence is a factor of no small influence, which may prove to mark the turn. One of the country's leading bankers, in a recent public utterance, summarised the general feeling of the business community when he said that “the extreme of Olir depression is probably as unwarranted as the extreme of our exaltation vyis fourteen months ago.” Current reports’ contain a curious mixture of favourable'and unfavourable factors. On the one hand, there is an unmistakable continuation of the decline in industrial output’and the volume of trade that has been under way for a year and a half. On the other hand, the movement of stock prices, commodity prices, and bank credit, three highly important influences on the general trend of business, have nil been such as to suggest that the process of readjustment is moving into its final stages. The stock market, after declining to a new low level for the current movement in the early part of the month, experienced several consecutive days of rapid recovery. While it would be rash to conclude that the rally marked the turning. of the tide, the behaviour of prices in the face of unfavourable industrial reports was , distinctly encouraging. If the upward trend continues it cannot fail to exert a stimulating effect on business sentiment. Even more direct in its favourable implications is the increasing tendency toward stability of commodity prices.