MACDONALD AS PROPHET

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume LXIII, 27 July 1929, Page 11

MACDONALD AS PROPHET

WORLD TEN YEARS HENCE THE LEAGUE AND AMERICA DEMOCRACY AND THE EAST Much interest and some criticism were aroused by an article which the new British l.'rimc Minister, Mr Ramsay MacDonald, published in the “Sunday Dispatch” on 9tli June, only a few days after his elevation to office. It was pointed out. however, that the article had been written, and probably forwarded to the newspaper, before Mr MacDonald knew that lie was to he Prime Minister. The article, a rather striking picture, of world affairs in 1939, is us follows:

1 have been asked what I think the world will bo like ten years hence. It is a very fascinating speculation, hut it is full of pitfalls. I have been long enough iu public work to know that while there is the firmest ground for believing that progress will go on, events have a habit of cutting out unexpected channels down which they are to run. In a good many respects, however, the tendencies of to-day are pretty clearly indicated. NATIONALITY NOT ENOUGH Oil the industrial side I sec the whole World being apportioned into vast economic fields controlled hy powerful syndicates which recognise no boundary lines other than those of markets, and which will hold in their keeping the lives of millions upon millions of human beings. What may be called “social materialism” is growing vigorously, and during the next ten years it will become increasingly a problem for those who care about individual liberty. Tlie self-de-termination of nations has been the great cry since 1914: it will be displaced by tlie still more important cry of self-de-termination for individuals. Nationality, which in the practical work of the affairs of the world is precious, but limited, will have to he supplemented by individuality and personality. That is a big and complicated subject, however. “UNITED STATES OF EUROPE” On the political side the outlook is equally interesting, and the first thing one thinks about is: “What will the League of Nations be like in 1940?” It all depends upon the moral and political power which the smaller States of Europe are to acquire in the interval. If they can make themselves really felt at Geneva there is no reason why, within the next ten years, we should nob have something corresponding to a United States of Europe. If, oil the other hand, they fail to do this and tho great Powers continue to dominate at Geneva, and use the machinery there primarily to transact their own business and carry out their own policies, the condition of affairs will be tess hopeful and more confused. The Powers will try to maintain peace because it will be a condition of their lomination, but they will be inert, as an old generation is in relation to a younger. They will act as fathers, telling other nations how to behave and keeping them in order, but they will retain the powers of initiation and will impose their own will. That, in the long run, is nob a condition of stability. . FREEDOM OF THE SEAS Round the League itself ill ere will be considerable groups of internatiofial organisations conferring periodically together. To these conferences will go representatives of States which will not bo.bound by the League of Nations’ derisions, hut which will bo free to reject, accept, or be indifferent to them. > So lraig as America remains aloof from the League the complete organisation of* Europe is difficult, almost impossible. Hie world is getting so. small that no agreement can secure freedom and self-determination for Europe unless tho agreement covers every important State in the world.

I think there is very little chance of America joining the League within 10 years. It will, however, be associated much more closely with League activities —the International Court and so on—than now. Before 10 years are up Great Britain and America will have come to an agreement upon the old irritating question of the “Freedom of the Seas,” and that will load to further AmericanEuropean understanding. An important factor in Europe will be the growth of the financial power of America, which will bo considerable and may be influenced by whatever success the United States-may meet in forming a Pan-American federation— nob in name but in understanding. Mexico will continue to be a hard problem in tiie development of that policy, and as the South American States grow in self-consciousness and prosperity they may also be unwilling partners to any agreement-as full as the United States would like. But it will bo hard to resist the United States propaganda and capi-

RKLATIONS WITH IME EAST

Before 10 years are over the Western races will also have to face some very difficult problems in relation to the Eastern races. One of the almost unobserved effects of the Russian revolution and the very short-sighted policy we have pursued during the last four years has been to make Russia turn its face Eastwards. Rs influence on the whole at present is mischievous, and we have made that unfortunate development of policy not only easy but inevitable.

The greatest problem that confronts us now is: How is the present period of transition between the days when tho West dominated the East by force of arms and those when the East will be regarded as equals for the purpose of negotiation to be bridged over? Russian influence is trying to answer that question by means of revolution, or at least of a revolutionary mentality. A HOPEFUL OUTLOOK

I mean by that that the East is assuming that the only way it can win freedom and assert its self-respect is to say to the West: “We shall not negotiate with you. Your dominion over us lias to be ended in accordance with our will. We do not trust you to make your •changes by reason and by your senso of fair play. This is what wo want, and by boycott and force we shall compel you to accept it.” In this attitude the question, of democratic progress is involved. In days of revolution democracy is of no use. It is meant for days of peace and conditions determined by peace.

1 do not believe that 10 years from now dictatorship in Europe will have strengthened itself, nor do I believe that European dictatorships are in the end to damage European democracy. It will probably be found that if European democracy is shattered the real blow will come from the failure of the West and the East to come to such friendly terms during tho transition por-

iod to which I refer as to justify democracy- both in tho East aixl in the West. This is how the outlook for the next 10 years presents itself to me. It is full of dangers and the way is beset by innumerable possibilities of short-sighted mistakes. But I remain a meliorist and firmly believe that 10 years from now wq shall 1-ealiv havo advanced and that policies which will bear fruit in European stabilisation and in international co-operation will bo pursued.