Nelson Evening Mail. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 1916, TRADE AFTER THE WAR.

Nelson Evening Mail, 27 September 1916, Page 4

Nelson Evening Mail. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 1916, TRADE AFTER THE WAR.

A DISTINGUISHED French economist, Piofessor Henri Hauser, of the TJniversity of Dijon, writes in- the July Fortnightly of German preparations for an economic war of aggrandisement after the conclusion of peace, and discusses measures of self-defence that should, in his opinion, be undertaken "by the Allies. He declares his conviction that Germany dreams of resuming her policy of commercial invasion for political and military ends on the very morrow of the signature of peace. She intends, if she can, to establish a German economic block in Central Europe, and through it to gain the mastery of the world's trade. "Leave the New Germany to her devices for ten. years," says Professor Hauser, "leave tlie cuttlefish to put out its tentacles again—and all our work will ■have to (be begun afresh." He repudiates, however, the "too simple" plan of boycotting Germany. "We know," he observes, "how difficult it is in time of war to make a blockade even half effective. How then in time of peace could we prevent neutrals from revictualling Germany, and furnishing, themselves with German products?" Nor, he argues, would it be to' the interest of the Allies to close completely againstthemselves a market which' in 1913 bough* over £29,000,000 sterling of Frentohf products, not far short of £44,000,000 of British, and more than £79,000,000 of Russian. The reviving Allied industries will need imarkete, and naturally must i fouy pJroduofcg in; return. Indeed, t'hey will want some German products badly. France, for instance, -will rei quire from Germany coal, which she can ; purchase with iron.

Dismissing as impossible anything of the nature of an Allied' Zollverein, JProfessor Hauser maintains that the utmost •possible is a system of reciprocal concessions, supplemented by a system of defence against the ctfmmon peril. The peril is German economic predominance of an illicit kind. Not to in in Germany but to deprive her of the power to work harm should, be the aim of post-war policy, for. she will if we win have to earn the money to pay for the restitution that will be demanded of her. The two principal methods by which Germany, according to this French economist, 'became, and hopes again to 'become, an economic danger to other great countries are industrial penetration and scientific ''dumping." Industrial penetration is illustrated by the establishment in France and Italy of German factories, masquerading as French and Italian. These factories, or rather their German controllers, profited by the wide margin between the duties levied on halffinishedl products and those levied on the finished article. The unfinished products were made in Germany, and "■dumped" in the other country, where the disguised German factories gradually gained command of the finishing industry, whereupon the "dumping" ceased, and up went the price of the finished article. Domestic legislation can meet the penetration evil now that the war has clearly revealed its nature, but concerted action is necessary to check the "dumping" that Germany is making ready for, with a view to crushing out industries established in other countries during the war. That there is grave danger of such dumping as a first step towards the restoration of the old German command of industries in other lands Professor Hauser concludes from a diligent study of recent German industrial statistics as contained in tire German Export Review, and similar publications. It is true that the textile, leather, rubber, and some of the electric industries of Germany have lieen very hard hit by the blockade, and cannot possibly be accumulating stocks, 'but, on the other hand, large stocks are 'being amassed from the output of other indus tries. The chemical industry, for example, has actually been stimulated by

the war, and there are likely, when peace comes, to be quantities not only of drugs, but of sulphuric acid, and even atmospheric nitrates, for export. "There is not the slightest doubt," says Professor Hauser, "that at the present moment, in human hives called the 'Badischeo' or the 'Farbwerks.' one may watch the accumulation not only of tons of explosives, which after the war will be restored to the usages of peace, but of colouring matters, of medical products, of nitrogenous and potassic manure."

The situation is the same in the toy industry, but it is in the metallurgic industries that the accumulation of stocks is most noteworthy. Output records show that after a great falling-off at -the, beginning of the war, German metallurgy has regained an activity which cannot be explained solely by the increase' of military necessities The activity relates to all varieties of cast-iron, those | used for industry as well as those used for munition manufacture. During ( the war manufacturers have been paid ; 90 per cent of the value of their goods at;, current prices on placing them in ■warehouses, and in return the German Government has reserved to itself the right of directing how these goods are to' be' disposed of after the war. "It will be a colossal dumping. Little Germany mind selling her stocks below cost price. . . . The loss will "be srnall compared with the advantages of emptying her storehouses at one stroke and' restoring to German industry its sphere of activity." It will be an operation aiming at the [merging of the foreign industries instituted during the war, industries such as the chemical and the metallurgical. The Germans hope that when once the new factories have been closed or bought by disguised German interests that they will toe able to get back to normal prices, and have no competition to fear. Mere tariff legislation cannot, the professor holds, meet this danger, and he suggests that the Allies and: neutrals who sign in with them should appoint agents in. Germany charged to verify invoices and point out when good-s are being exported at a lower rate than they are sold 1 in Germany. The Allied nations should then impose on such goods a penalty at least equal to the difference in the prices.