THE NEXT GREAT WAR.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XL, Issue 199, 14 August 1876, Page 4

THE NEXT GREAT WAR.

(Melbourne Argus.)

There is one view of the situation in 1 Europe whioh though it has not attracted much attention yet, goes far to explain tbe reason of the doubts and uncertainties of which we hear so much. It also explains why Germany has taken so active a part in the matter to which she was at one time all but indifferent, and why she bas managed to get Berlin made the centre of iho negotiations. We find the view referred to in the Revue des Deux Mondes as a possible one merely, but wa think that a little consideration will show that it really does afford a key to much tbat is otherwise inexplicable. For some time past English writers and foreign correspondents have been trying to find out what Russia and Germany can possibly have to fight about. When a British officer wrote some twelve months ago that Germany wae not arming against France, but against Russia, he was regarded as most persons are who profess to see further tban their neighbors into the political or international millstone. The wise ones were strongly of opinion that t iere was no quarrel between those two great powers, nor could these persons 880 how a quarrel could arise. Further consideration has, however, shown that the relations of Germany and Russia are rather personally than officially of a friendly character, and that che steady march of events is very' likely to give rise to a collision of interests, before which ail personal safeguards must go down. It would, of course, be asserting too much to say that we can trace oat the actual progress of events to come, but we may safely say that there is good reason to believe that the nest great war — perhaps the greatest yet seen in modern days— will be between Germany and Russia, each probably allied with other powers.

One all-important fact is, that the mission of Germany is not yet fulfilled. The greater part of the German population is now united in one compaot and powerful whole but there still remain ontside some millions of Germans who are subjects of the Austro-Hungarian empire. It is no secret that Germany looks to include these within ber capacious fold at no very distant date, and that she must be prepared to make some considerable sacrifices to complete the work of unity which bas been so successfully begun. The German theory is tbat Austria is properly an Eastern power. It is beld that her development cannot be, possibly, to tbe westward, and that she mistakes her evident destiny when she seeks to cross the Danube, and assert an influence in German affairs. There is much to show that this view has made considerable way in Austria, partly because it is seen to be impossible to contend against a united Germany, and partly because there is_a natural outlet beyond Galicia, amongst tbe real and nominal dependencies of Turkey. What is more, it is quite possible that even Turkey herself may offer opportunities to Austria which would be eagerly embraced, aod that that country would beoome in reality what it is in name, a true Eastern power, combining in one a number of diverse populations. Against lhis there is, of course, tbe intense hatred between the Sciave and the Magyar races, which might go far to render a real union impossible, and would only be overcome with difficulty. Still, in these days such considerations are generally made to give way to national convenience and gain, and it is probable that even the impracticable Hungarian Government would be dazeled by the prospect of an enormous and valuable increase of territory. The question is, would Austria be prepared to pay the price for this gain ? Would she surrender her German subjects, perhapß her present capital, and allow Germany to cross the Danube and include the present centre of power ? We are inclined to thkk that she would for several reasons. First, it is absolutely certain tbat Germany can take what she wants, as soon as she bas a fair pretext for doing so. Secondly, the German population of Austria incline towards Germany, and would welcome their inclusion in the German Empire. Thirdly, if Austria could get, as a reward the command of Eastern Europe, perhaps even as far as Constantinople itself, she would have a recompense whioh would go far to pay for any loss of territory or population. She would begin a new and a natural career. Turning from the West of Europe, where she has failed to sustain her prestige, she would be able to develop an enormous power in the East, and, would once again be a mighty empire, doing work not only glorious to herself, but useful to the world.

Such a scheme involves, of course, the defeat of Russia before it eou id be carried out. That Government would never consent that another Christian power should reign at Constantinople. or even dominate any portion of Eastern Europe. On the other baud, Germany would not willingly see Russia more powerful than she ie, and it would be to the former's interest not only to complete the work of German unification, but to beat back Russia from any further advance. We thus see how it is possible that Germany and Russia may come iuto collision, both seeing that the Etruggle is for the ascendancy on the CoDtineatof Europe. It .is well understood that Germany does not wish to see Russia any •stronger in Europe than she is, and that there is a fast-growing feeling of bitter ■antagonism between the two countries, jybis may be said to indicate a percep-

tion of some future rivalry on the part of the statesmen of both countries, which shines through the friendly relations of the heads of the Governments. It is highly probable that Great Britain would be disposed to favor the advance of Austria to the East, and that her aid would be given to any project which would keep Russia within her present bounds. If the relations of the two countries in Europe could be thus simplified, the Asiatic question would become less complicated, inasmuch as Great Britain would only have to face Russia at one point, and could not be threatened in two or three directions. This view of the outcome of tbe original question will, we think, shortly attract more attention, and pass from being a surmise of well-informed writers into the domain of everyday fact, to be twisted a hundred ways by eager commentators for the edification of an enlightened British public.