Manawatu Evening Standard. SATURDAY, AUGUST 7, 1937. WORLD’S WHEAT.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LVII, Issue 212, 7 August 1937, Page 8

Manawatu Evening Standard. SATURDAY, AUGUST 7, 1937. WORLD’S WHEAT.

In tlie Northern Hemisphere the grain crops are being garnered, and reports of the harvest have been issued by the leading wheat growing countries. Canada’s crop is the smallest for ten years, according to the estimates of the Bureau of Statistics. Drought in the prairie provinces and other factors have had a most adverse effect on the Canadian output recently, and to-day the wheat in store is 87 million bushels less than a year ago. On the other hand the United States, in spite of disease and drought, will have the best return since 1927. The crop, the Department of Agriculture states, will be worth more than a billion dollars, and it is expected that 882 million bushels will be garnered, leaving a surplus of 175 million bushels. Until crops became seriousy affected in Canada there was a distinct fear in the United States that an unsaleable surplus would be left on hand, but America’s neighbour will now be a profitable customer for these stocks. In Europe Italy’s harvest is expected to yield 295 million bushels, which ‘.‘will enable her to dispense with importations.” Growers there are under strict Government control. They are required to send their wheat to the Government granaries to avoid waste and speculation, and the millers are not permitted to use wheat solely in the manufacture of bread, the mixing of other grains being compulsory. But though Italy may not need to import wheat Germany’s harvest most likely will fall short of requirements. Last year it was five per cent, below the average, and this year the estimate ranges at from eight to ten per cent, less than in 1936. So far there is no indication from Russia and the Danubian countries of the state of their crops.

In recent months wheat has staged a spectacular recovery after being in the doldrums for a lengthy period. Four years ago the Winnipeg quotation stood at under 50 cents a bushel; a year ago it had recovered to approximately 80 cents, a price which was still far short of the dollar which Canada regards as the minimum for profitable production. Early in April last the price had risen to round about 150 cents, though to-day . Chicago wheat futures are thirty cents lower. The causes of this rise are to be traced to the smaller crops of recent years. Eor several seasons from 1928 there were bumper crops which coincided with a period of steadily declining demand. The result was an increasingly large carryover each year which at July, 1933, stood at between twice and three times the normal surplus. Then came the

opposite movement. A series of short crops combined with a reduced acreage planted brought stocks to more or less normal dimensions. Earlier forecasts were for a further slight contraction in the current cereal year, but these may now be affected by the unusually large surplus in the United States. There was also a demand a few months ago from Italy and Germany, but as Italy appears to'' have reached a position of self-sufficiency in wheat only Germany will require imports unless the people of that regimented country are competed by their rulers to go short. The world wheat position again seems to be reaching a normal state, but it is largely at the expense of the countries which have suffered severely from drought and other factors which reduce the crops. The Canadian wheat-grower has had a disastrous season. Rains which have now fallen have in no wise alleviated his plight, and higher prices than last year will be small compensation for the extremely poor yield.