HUNGARY TOTTERING TO RUIN

Mount Ida Chronicle, Volume XLV, Issue XLV, 15 June 1917, Page 1

HUNGARY TOTTERING TO RUIN

WHERE THE NEXT REVOLUTION WILL BE.

[By Cam. Ackerman', in the 'New Yori? J Tribune.'] * It w Austria-Hungary, not Gei-maTiy, J thflt is to-<lay ripe for a revolution. The libextv-loving Hungarians, the Russian Joyal Slavs, and the oppressed Bohemians, tvho are in the majority in the Dual ■ Monarchy. will he the first to be inspired by the " New Russia." These people hate the Germans. For nearly a century they have tormented the Hapsburg dynasty and kept Austria-Hungary in a whirlpool of im- i certaintv. At every great, crisis m the , war the country has been on the verge ot a- ■ collapse. It is not so in Germany, Ger- i many as a nation is young and its in- . habitants are mostly Germans. While . there is dissatisfaction, discontent, and distress there is a unity of purpose and a national ideal. The German people _be- 1 lieve the world is leagued against the Ger- t man race. They believe all Germans must ; "kick together." They believe Kaiser ; Wilhelm will be able to get better German , peace terms than a divided nation under a : reformed Government, and as long as they ( believe this political changes in Germany are likelv to be evolutionary, not revolutionary. " Germany will be affected by a reformed Russia chiefly through her neighftS&*Swfe THE SOCIALISTS ; The German Socialists will demand liberalisation, and will probably get. it. be- . cause the Kaiser and Chancellor Von Beth- ( mann Hollweg .know that Germanyt? ■ greatest task liow is to hold Austria-Hun- , gary together. A revolution there would j shake the political foundations of Germany, break the solidarity of Central Eu- 1 rope", and make it impassible for "al- , mighty Germanv-" to continue the war. , Therefore the' Chancellor may be expected < to promise the German Socialists extensive ( reforms in return for their support. The l German people lack a militant leader. No . man with influence and the confidence of ( the public is -willing to take a chance in ; starting a revolution. Philip Scheide- 1 mann. the powerful Socialist member of i the Reiclistag, could lead a revolt against j the Hohenzollems, but he will do so only \ when he is convinced he can succeed. TJn- i like Blussia, Germany ha 6 no "Duma , party" and no political organisation which is prepared to lead. The Kaiser and the Chancellor know this. They know, too, that their Peace Note of last December and the Entente reply to President Wilson - solidified Germany's political organisation, and convinced the people that the Government was waging a "defensive.war." A revolution in Germany at this time is not probable unless it begins in AustriaHungary. If the people overthrow the Hohenzollern dynasty they would do so with one purpose—to make peace. While the people long for peace, while they talk about nothing else, still they are not ready io accept peace through defeat. IN MIDDLE EUROPE. When German statesmen began to realize they could not conquer Europe and establish an iron hold upon world business they turned their attention to the Balkans and" Turkey. They saw the vision of a great nation called" Central Europe, made up of Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, part of Serbia, Greece, and Turkey, with Berlin as the capital. Their idea was to spread German influence and German Ivultur throughout these .countries by making the people " fear Germans." During my two years within the Central Powers I made four journeys to Austria-Hungary, and I 6pent three" weeks with the German army as it invaded Rumania. I talked to Germans. I heard from Hungarians, Slavs, and Rumanians what they thought and feared. For these people the idea of a freat Germany was horrifying but real, hey saw visions of German oppression and" domination, but they were powerless. They went into the war and saw no means of escape. They hated and suspected the Tsar. For them the "Tsar danger" was ereater than the ""'Prussian invasion." sliG Hungarians, especially, who are the greatest, the most charming, and freedom - loving people of the Central Powers, believed they were obliged to defeat the Tsar first and then go for tho German-:. But now that the Tsar is defeated by his own people, Hungary has little fear of Russia. The same is true of the Slavs,

the Bohemians, and the Galieians. Thus, the Russian revolution gives these people a sireater opportunity to oppose Germanv. THE YOUNG EMPEROR. Ever since the death of Emperor Prams Josef the Dual Monarchy has been split. The young Emperor, fearing Germany, and having his army and navy completely under tho orders* of the German General Staff, is pulled from the pillar of discontent within his own country to the post of Germany. The Hungarians know Kaiser Wilhelm plans to put his favorite son, Bitel Friedrich, on the Hungarian throne if he can. The Hungarians know. German business and industrial leaders are work-. ing night and day to fasten their hold upon Hungary. Hungarians know Germany is starving and wants Hungarian food. The Bohemians have revolted time and. time again during the war. When General Brusiloff began his offensive :n July, 1916, a whole Bohemian army deserted, and Archduke Frederick was relieved of his command upon order of tne German Emperor. Part of another Bohemian army corps which attempted tc desert was caught, and upon order of Kaiser Wilhelm one out of every five officers and men was executed. The rest were imprisoned. These are a few instances whii.li show the critical situation which has existed in Austria-Hungary since the beginning of the war. Franz Josef was successful in keeping the Dual Monarchy united while he nas alive, because he practically turned the country over to Count Stefan Tisza, the Minister President of Hungary. Germany will not permit the new Emperor to do this. A story told in Vienna illustrates better than anything else Tisza's former power. It is said that when the old Emperor died he was met at the Golden Gate by St. Peter, who asked him: "Your Majesty, what has your Majesty done to merit entrance here!*" The tottering old field marshal thought . a minute, scratched his head, and replied : ( " I don't know; ask Count Tisza." . THE IMPOTENT REICHSTAG. Outside of Berlin the Reichstag is'ioked '■ upon as the representative body of the German people. During the two years ] ■ was in Germany the Reichstag did nothinc . which was not planned by the Government

and executed by the Government's representatives. To a certain extent this is true of the Hungarian Parliament. The one big difference is that in Budapest there is freedom of debate. In Berlin there is no freedom, not even freedom of thought. In Budapest the Opposition, which has the support of the people, but which is prevented from gaining authority because the Government party is the " land party,'' is the militant party. The Hungarians* 'nave leaders—great leaders, too —who, like Count Albert Apponyi and Count Julius. Andrassy, can lead if they will. Unlike Germany, there are organisations and leaders thjpugh Austria-Hungary who are ready to lead and to fight a revolution. Germany knows this, ..and the f;ict tl at last week Chancellor Von Bethmauu lioilweg hurried to Vienna to confer with young Emperor Charles is proof'that the greatest crisis since the beginning of the' war has developed in Austria-Hungary Time will tell whether the Germans i-r the anti-Prussians are the more powerful. GERMAN MILITARY DOMIXAXCK. There is another difference between the situation in Austria-Hungary and I\ussia. Both nations, it is true, were ripe for revolutions. But in Russia the army ■was Russian and under command of Russians. Not. so in the Dual .Monarchy. Ever since General Brusiloff's offensive crippled and demoralised the Austro-Hun-garian army it has been reorganised a? a unit in the Germany army. There is not even a company in the Austrian army which i 3 not commanded by Germans. In fact, every eight . Austrians are under a German tuider-officer. « If there was a revolution in Austria-Hungary the revolutionists could riot count upon the support of a great army. This may make a revolt in the Dual Monarchy take the form of pressure upon Germany to make peace on any terms. All these developments are certiin to have an important influence upon the German Socialists. They are the real democrats of Germany. They have the vision of a Liberal Germany, anfl if they ccntinue to support the Government it will be because the Chancellor is willing to oiedge and begin reforms. The sudden appearance of Von Bethmauu Hollweg in the Reichstag a few days ago means but one thing—the Socialists have taken, .advantage of the Russian revolution to demand reforms now. I would not be surprised if they again demanded peace. But the German Socialists will be the subject ol a Bpecial article, which will follow shortly.