THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 3872, 17 November 1928, Page 3

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

STATE OP PARTIES. According to the latest returns the Reform Party has 29 seats, the United Party 26, and the Labour Party 19. There are five Independents and one representative of the Country Party. Three courses are open to the Government The Prime Minister may decide that the results constitute a vote of no confidence in the Government, and he may elect to tender his resignation, and that of his Ministry to the Governor-Gen-eral without calling Parliament together. The Governor-General, however, may decide not to accept the resignation. What is more likely to happen is that, following a consultation with the members of his party, the Prime Minister will ask the Governor-General to convene Parliament in session early in the New Year. When Parliament does assemble it is expected that Sir Joseph Ward, as Leader of the Opposition, will move an amendment of no confidence in the Government, and that, with the assistance of the LabourSocialist Party, the amendment will be carried. Mr. Coates would then tender his resignation, and that of his Ministry, to the Governor-Gen-eral, and recommend His Excellency to send for Sir Joseph Ward, who, in turn, might have to face a noconfidence amendment moved by Mr. Coates, as Leader of the Opposition. The result of the voting on that motion would depend on the Labour Party.

With the defeat of the Ward Ministry Sir Joseph Ward’s only icourse would be to tender his resignation to the Governor-General and to recommend that he should send for Mr. Coates, as the leader of the next strongest party in the House. It is at this stage that the position of stalemate would be reached. No one of the three parties would be able to eaiwy on without the assistance of one of the others, and if a rapprochement could not be arrived at, Mr. Coates, or Sir Joseph Ward, would be entitled to ask for dissolution, and another general election would have to be held. Another election would not be welcomed by a section who would prefer a fusion of the Reform and United parties. DOUBTFUL SEATS. ■Calculation of the absentee, postal, and seamen’s votes will have an important bearing on the ultimate result of the general election. Electorates likely to be affected by the additional votes are as fol-

FUSION OF UNITED AND REFORM. ADVOCATED BY MR, E. A. RANSOM. Dannevirke, Nov. 16. Commenting upon the result of the election, Mr. E. A. Ransom, member for Pahiatua, and deputyleader of the United Party, said that, according to his view, the alternatives on the present situation were: (1) That the Reform Party should support the United Party in carrying on the government of the country, (2) or that there should be a conference of the two parties with a view to a fusion, doing away with the three-party system. If an amalgamation were to take place, he said, the most difficult question would be to determine who should be the Prime Minister. In view of the fact that the United Party was the dominant party, and the countrf had given a very clear indication in that direction, it would probably hold that the position of Prime Minister should be held by Sir Joseph Ward. However, these were questions which have to be discussed by a conference of his party, which would no doubt be held shortly. As men of outstanding ability had been returned to Parliament, the affairs of the country could be safely entrusted to their hands, and they could be relied upon to do what was best. PREVIOUS ELECTIONS. THE STRENGTH OF PARTIES. In five previous elections the strength of the parties was as follows :—•

PARTY GAINS AND LOSSES.' An analysis of the latest avail-

able election returns shows that the Government has lost 23 seats, and gained one, while the Uniteds have lost three, and gained eighteen. Labour has lost three seats, and gained eight. Independents have gained three seats, and the 'Country Party, one. The United Party had its best victory in the Auckland province, where nine seats out of tw/enty-three were captured. Details of the party gains and losses are given below: — GAINS. Government (1). —Hauraki. Labour (SJ.-JNapier, Dunedin South, Westland, Timaru, Dunedin North, Auckland Suburbs, Waimarino, Wellington East. United (18). —Grey Lynn, Wairau, New Plymouth, Auckland East, Roskill, Rotorua, Wairarapa, Eden, Oamaru, Parnell, Southern Maori, Awarua, Riccarton, Marsden, Motueka, Waikato, Waitomo, Oroua. Independent (3). — Egmont, Stratford, Rangitikei. C.P. (1). —'Bay of Islands. LOSSES. Government (23). —Napier, Timaru, Dunedin North, Wairau, New Plymouth, Roskill, Rotorua, Wairarapa, Oamaru, Parnell, Egmont, Stratford, Rangitikei, Southern Maori, Awarua, Riccarton, Marsden, Motueka, Wellington East, Waitomo, Oroua, Bay of Islands, Waikato. Labour (3).—Grey Lynn, Auckland East, Eden. United (3). —Dunedin South, Westland, Waimarino. SIR JOSEPH WARD HOPEFUL. Invercargill, Nov. 15. Interviewed to-day, Sir Joseph Ward said he was naturally very proud of the results. As he had publicly stated during his speeches, there was a great tracking of the United Party throughout the country, and that party, on the day after the election, had been found not to be the inconsequential organisation that the Prime Minister had led the people to believe. The results were very much better than were indicated in the statements made as to the strength of the United Party. There were other men returned who had informed him during the election that if successful, they would be supporters of the United Party. This was not the occasion for him to give details, but it was an undeniable fact. The country desired a change of Government, and no one could deny that the people had decided by a large majority that a change must be effected. There would he no need to discuss what man had the right to move no confidence if such were necessary when the House met. That privilege, in accordance with the constitution of the House, belonged to the leader of the largest party in Opposition, and the United Party had an absolute majority over either of the other two parties. They need have no misgivings as to the safety of the country in the hands of the United Party, and under its policy, said Sir Joseph Ward he was firmly convinred it would lead to happier and better conditions, and would make for the prosperity of the Dominion. He was leaving for Wellington either to-night or to-morrow, and would have an early conference with members of the party. After that had taken place, he hoped to be in a position, with the concurrence of members, to outline its policy in full.

THE LABOUR PARTY. Prior to the 1908 general elec* tion, when the Government party was generally known as LiberalLabour, there was no separate representation in Parliament of what is now the official Labour Party. But in 1908 Mr. David McLaren, standing definitely as a Labour candidate, won Wellington East, and was the solitary member of his party in that Parliament. The party did not take its present shape even in the next Parliament, for the 1911 elections returned four members who were independent of the Government, but were- not exactly a Labour parlia-mentary-party. Those were Messrs Hindmarsh (Wellington South), Veitch (Wanganui) who were described as Labour, and Messrs Payne (Grey Lynn) and Robertson (Otaki) who fought as Socialists. The Labour group was a definite live in the 1914 election result, and it mounted up to 17 after the 1922 election. In the 1925 election, though the Labour Party suffered a decline to 12, the other Opposition elements wpi’o more severely hit, and Labour became the official Opposition, its total eventually increasing to 14 on winning the Raglan and Eden byelection. GOVERNMENT’S COURSES OF ACTION. The action the Government will take with regard to the political situation cannot be decided until all the absentee, postal, and seamen’s votes are counted and the exact state of the parties is determined. This will not be known until early next week. ENGLISH PRESS OPINION. London, Nov. 15. The “Daily Telegraph” says: “New Zealand politics never lack dramatic quality. The country will now again experience the disadvantage of the three-party system. The difference between the Reform and Liberal programmes is almost too subtle to be distinguished here, but it may be suspected that Sir Joseph

Ward’s advocacy of a development loan of seventy millions, from which he would make advances to farmers on easy terms, and the proposal to subsidise minor industries, has pleased many voters, who regard Mr. Coates as an unduly stern economist.”

The “Daily Chronicle” remarks that New Zealand has been through a most remarkable election. The United-Liberal Party, under Sir Joseph Ward, scored a striking success at short notice. The result was obtained by the Liberals definitely opposing both the other parties, offering voters who disliked either extreme a distinct third alternative.

“The Times” described the position in New Zealand as one nobody foresaw and few intended. “Mr. Coates’s loss of popularity was due to a number of small but accumulating grievances. The United Party is not popular or significant of itself, but does provide a momentarily singularly safe way of hitting at the Government without injuring the country.” The editorial suggests that Mr. Coates may offer vacant portfolios to the United Party in the hope of mitigating longstanding rancours and assuring a long continuance of office, faced only by 20 Labourites, or retire, but the reluctance of elected members to risk a new election may prove a powerful force towards accommodation. ,

Electorate Absent CandiPresent Voters date majority Dunedin South 823 Hall 8 Franklin 507 Massey .89 Grey Lynn 652 Fletcher 101 Kaiapoi 570 Hawke 93 Mataura 460 Anderson 33 Mid Canterbury 650 Jones 69 Rieearton 570 McLachlan 11 j Temuka 499 Burnett 79 co Waikato 563 Lye 39 South 1138 Luke 8

1911 1914 1919 1922 1925 Liberal 30 33 18 23 1 Reform 39 41 47 38 55 Labour 4 6 8 17 12 Independent 1) 4 2 2 Ind. Labour — 3 .— — Nationalist, now United 9