EARTHQUAKES.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XLV, Issue 2558, 22 March 1923, Page 1

EARTHQUAKES.

MR R. F. FIELD’S THEORIES. Mr P. R. Field, civil engineer, and formerly mathematics master at Wanganui Collegiate School, who is at present delivering a series of lantern lectures on the “History of the Earth” and kindred matters at Wellington, was interviewed by a “Times” reporter with reference to the earthquake shocks experienced on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. WHAT THE RECORDS SHOW. “We had,” stated Mr Field, “some very heavy earthquake shocks in Wellington in 1845, and 1848; and that was the sort of thing I was referring to when I stated last week that two earthquakes existed in Wellington, hut the third l condition was against them, and that, consequently, we were not likely under the cii'cumstanees to have heavy earthquakes here. These light shocks that we have had during the past two or three days are likely to occur at any time in any part of the world. INFLUENCE OF SUN.

“The first condition by which we can judge whether an earthquake is likely is the state of the sun at the time; the second condition is the state of the earth’s fluid interior; and the third is the level of the earth’s surface at any given locality. It was this third condition, which is indicated on the tideguage better than anywhere else, that is against any severe earthquakes occurring in Wellington at the present time. Mr Marchbanks (engineer to the Wellington Harbour Board) has been very good in turning up for me official records and tabular matter bearing on this point; and he seems to be very much interested in the question.

“The records clearly indicate that for many years past the level of the earth’s surface has been improving rather than otherwise so far as Wellington is concerned. They show that the disposition of the earth’s crust here is to keep on -rising whereas the danger lies in its falling. “WATCH THE TIDE GUAGE.” “That means, of course, that if we watch the tide-guage and find any appreciable increase in the general level of the tides, which would necessarily indicate a local falling of: the earth’s crust, earthquakes may he expected the other predisposing conditions being also operative. “I may say that, by .thoroughly investigating the records of solar variations and of the severe earthquakes throughout the world during the/ past 150 years. 1 have clearly established the fact that there is synchronism in the workings of the sun and of the earth’s interior; and that severe earthquakes occur only when the sun is passing thro-

igh certain changes, the times tor which we can forsee years in advance. ] mean the peculiar changes in solar energy which takes place, not at regular intervals, but still at times that we can tix by observing the sun. “A very important point is this: that, owing to the polarity of the sun, changes in what we call the southern hemisphere of the sun will affect only the southern - hemisphere of the earth. After considering the lime of the approaching earthquake season and the local conditions, one .can but keep on observing the sun so as to get about one week’s notice of impending trouble. We can forsee these earthquake seasons, we know the local conditions, and then by watching the sun we ought eventually to be able to tix the time and place for an earthquake with a high degree of certainty. DUKATION OF SEASONS. ••The present earthquake season wiil probably last for another six or

nine months, and alter that there will he a lull for about four years. “In order to forecast earthquakes for .New Zealand we should have tidal records kept all round the coast. We would know when the

earthquake season was coming and Uie man whose business it was would be noting the conditions of the sun every day, and should be able, from the evidence -,of the local conditions to Its the time of the earthquake within an hour, and, within some fifty miles the area in whiqh the earthquake would occur.”