LOWER FREIGHTS PROBABLE.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XLI, Issue 1954, 20 March 1919, Page 2

LOWER FREIGHTS PROBABLE.

iN a memorandum on the world’s merehanl shipping, Sir James Wilson, K.C.5.1., chairman of' the Central Agrieuillira! Wages Committee for Scotland, discusses the probable movement of ocean freights in the immediate future. He argues that within a few months the supply of shipping for commerce will be greater than the demand, as compared with the pre-war relationship, and that freights will fall to a level not much more than double the rates which were current before the war. It is noteworthy that Sir James ’Wilson makes only a slight reference to (he large quantity of tonnage which, it is generally assumed, will he required for some lime to come for Ihe Iranspoii of troops from Europe, to the Cuiled Stales and the British Dominions overseas, and omils jo mention that Europe will require a greai deal of reprovisioning. He points out that it seems to be practically certain that the world’s total merchant steamer tonnage (Including that in enemy countries) though considerably less than it was in July, 11)14, is at present Jargei-tha 11 it was on Ihe average of the five years before Ihe war, (hat it will go on rapidly increasing, and that it will a year hence he much larger than it ever was in (he world’s history. All ships in enemy hands will soon become avn ila Die for use, mueh of (he shipping hilherlo employed in opera lions of war is already being relumed lo ordinary commerce, and it will not be long before the quanlily f tonnage actually employed in trade, apart from that still required for Ihe repatriation of men and munitions, will he as huge as it was on Ihe average of (he live years before ihe war. On Ihe other hand. Sir James ’Wilson maintains (he demand for the transport of goods by sea is not likely for a considerable lime to he as huge as it was on the pre-war average. The resources of most European countries have been greatly reduced, and il will take some time to reorganise their industrial life, so that the effective demand for Ihe import of food and raw material info Europe is likely fu he for some lime less than (he. proWitr demand. For (he same reason the quanlily of manufactured goods exported from Europe is likely for so mg lime to lie less than il was before' the war; so Dial altogether it seems probable dial a few mouths hence the supply of shipping for purposes of trade will he greater than the demand for shipping as compared with the pre-war relation of supply and demand. Altogether, Sir James Wilson adds, it seems probable that the supply of shipping in the world as a whole will soon he found equal to the, demand for shipping, and that freights will in a few months fall lo a level not much more than double Ihe rates which were current before the Avar, whereas recently, as regards wheat, they were about 15 times the average pre-war rates.