THE WAR OUTLOOK.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXIX, Issue 1753, 17 November 1917, Page 4

THE WAR OUTLOOK.

GERMANY'S STRENGTH. GRAVE WARNING BY PREMIER OF NEW SOUTH WALES. If there was a depressing not at the largely attended citizens’ luncheon given in honour of the Premier at the Town Hall yesterday, it was the pessimistic note which Mr Holman himself struck in the course of his eloquent speech on his war experiences abroad (says the Sydney Daily Telegraph of November 2nd). Mr Holman reviewed the position as he found it in England on his arrival from Australia. He was met, he said, with gloom and depression in Government circles, following the chaos that had come to be so characteristic of Russian social existence; by the apprehension that disrupted and disunited Italy would fail in some critical circumstances and involve the Allied cause and by the feeling consequent upon the energetic submarine campaign. However, Mr Holman was not all pessimism. While pointing out that fears for the political unity of Italy were entertained, he spoke of the superiority of the Allied arms on the Western front, and re-echoed the opinion of British statesmen that it would be impossible for the submarines to bring about the starvation of the people of Great Britain. “When I landed in England,” Mr Holman said, “I found in the country an extraordinary wave qf depression. The Russian Revolution had succeeded, and had freed Russia from a pro-German plot, only in its turn to be taken control of by German agency, It had been then so manipulated that Russia had almost ceased to count in the councils of the Allies or the calculations of the war. “The next reason for the depression was new to me. It was to find that Italy was a nation of divided councils. “The Cabinet which had been ruling Italy for the two years previously was a pro-Ally Cabinet, but there was in the Italian Parliament an immense section —probably a majority of the House —in favour of joining with Germany. I discovered that one of the nightmares of the British Government and military leaders was that some disaster would take, place on the Italian front which would leave the country open to political dissension, that would lead to a separate peace. “THAT DISASTER HAS COME.” “That disaster has come. Whether it will have the apprehended political consequences the next few weeks will show. While the military reverse it self does not necessarily matter, and may easily be compensated for by later victories, should that reverse, as was dreaded in Great Britain, lead to any change of Italian policy the difficulties of the Allied cause will be overwhelmingly .increased.

“Finally I found the German authorities had entered upon a submarine campaign which was distinctly threatening the food supplies of Great Britain, and found the British Government primarily concerned with the problem of feeding the people of Britain during the winter.”

Before his astonished gaze, continued the Premier, he saw Germany succeeding —perhaps to be later successful against Italy, and threatening Great Britain. In military matters Germany was perhaps practically leading the rest of the world. He wished to take the opportunity to tell that great gathering what the position then was. “Put yourselves in the shoes of the enemy. The Germans saw themselves attacked by five Powers- — the minor Powers may be ignored. They had succeeded in'removing the Russian Power so largely that Russia ceased to count. They hoped to do the same thing in Italy/ They had succeeded in inflicting a most important defeat on the French army under General Nivelle. That left them facing England, and possibly America. They believed that fhey could defeat England by means of the submarines. America was still at that time a problem of the future, and even in the event of the United States declaring war the country would be unable to strike a decisive blow before many months elapsed. OPTIMISM UNJUSTIFIED, “That, then, was the critical position in which the Allies stood. The buoyant belief that the Allies would soon be marching into Berlin, so often expressed during the conscription referendum campaign in the Commonwealth, and the feeling of

optimism also .in evidence . when I left, fell from me like a dream. The position was such as to call for the earnest consideration of even’ part of the Empire and every country of the Allies. My own provincial viewpoint, as a citizen of this wardistant and little-informed portion of the Empire, regarding the Germans, was that the German military authorities were inflated with conceit concerning the ability of their arms. I found, after consultation with the British and Allied leaders, that this was a wrong idea —that the Germans were working on a plan, and had succeeded in perfecting their plans. They had demolished Russia; they had a chance of demobilising Italy; they had inflicted a measure of exhaustion upon France; and they hoped to starve England. “What do you think of a nation which, after three years of war, was able to look at the position from such a viewpoint? This is the Power which, if it succeeds, will enslave the world and trample its freedom under its iron heel.” “It was only the support of the great democracy of • the United States,” said Mr Holman, “which lent hope for the victory of tl\e Allied banners, reared in the cause of right.” POSITION IMPROVED. “But the position had improved. The attack on Great Britain was defeated, not because the submarine menace had been successfully coped with, but by the building of more ships. It was the construction which had decreased the amount of mercantile shipping loss, and not the smashing of submarines. As far as their numbers count, they were still a success. We read a great deal of the discontent with the Admiralty, but he prayed them to understand that that discontent was not dictated by the lack of gratitude for the magnificent work of the Admiralty during the three years of war. It was said by many of the wisest in England that the Admiralty had neglected its part against submarines to the extent that it had no pre-arranged plans. The Admiralty had failed to protect the mercantile marine of England against its underwater attackers. “What has been done to meet the menace was to build more ships, to place such areas of England under cultivation that in another year it will be possible for her to feed herself. All these things have strengthened Great Britain, and when I left England Mr Lloyd George declared that England cannot be starved.” (Cheers). ALLIES IN THE WEST. “In the latest battles,” said the Premier, “the French troops have shown their superiority to the Germans. During the past three or four months an unending offensive has been organised and carried on by Sir Douglas Haig, with the cooperation of the French, It had progressed as rapidly as the circumstances of modern warfare will permit. The Germans have not taken a piece of ground in that period which they have not been forced to evacuate within 24 hours. On the other hand, there has never been any ground taken by the Allies which they ha.ve failed to retain.” (Cheers), The Premier concluded “We see France, at the commencement of the war, the Sentinel of Humanity standing on the bulwarks, now reduced —not to impotence, for that would be an overstatement —but to a greatly diminished effort, jlffd the Sacred Ark of the Covenant of Liberty left to the care of the Anglo-Saxon race. (Cheers). In this world and in this age of crisis and stress, success and freedom are only possible to the valiant. (Applause). It is right for us to be worthy of the blood and breeding of the nation from which we came, and to eptcr as a Commonwealth upon the great task to which we have given our hand, and from which, I hope, the people of Australia will never quail.” (Sustained applause). “ONLY THE ONE END.” “Several people who attended the luncheon tendered me at the Town Hall,” said Mr Hohnan subsequently, “have told me that they came away depressed by what they called the ‘pessimistic’ tone of my references to the war, I am not pessimistic. But facts are facts. • Those I stated, though known to the people of Europe and America, were still unknown iff Australia. I, however, have always felt that the first essential for opr people is that we may know exactly what wo are up against. “Before I left England the present crisis in Italy was anticipated. It has conic us a thunderbolt to Australia. The situation in Russia was known, and its effects foreshadowed months before we in Australia knew anything of it. This

foreknowledge -stiffened the people of Great Britain and France just as I believe the news will stiffen the people of Australia. The British people are never at their best till they are up against the worst. “In the full knowledge of my experience, I still believe that there can be only one end to this war—the annihilation of Prussian power. The operations of German influence are gigantic—its effects spring up in the most unexpected places. It is the cause of Russia’s retirement, and is responsible for the present disruption of Italy. Its influence is now being felt in America. We have had some experience of its power in our own midst, “So I do not regard any other conclusion of the war as thinkable than that of complete victory. The dogged resolution and the national union of Great Britain, the wonderful organising powers and keen determination of the United States, may have to serve for some time as the principal stays of the Allies’ cause. But they are there. I have witnessed them. Nothing is more wonderful than the enthusiasm with which America is now arming for the war, or the determination with which Great Britain is prosecuting it after three years of suffering. The fresh vitality of the two great branches of the Anglo-Saxon race is bound to outlast the galvanic effects into which the enemy is putting all bis diminished powers. “These galvanic efforts are sufficient, no doubt, to kill us unless they arc cheeked. They will he checked. Britain and France are doing this until the deciding might of America can be exerted upon the scene. The fullest accord prevails between the three nations and the three Governments, and although we sec the enemy striking heavy blows and gaining great temporary successes, there can only be one conclusion to the struggle if we are true to ourselves.”