SOUND PEACE OR A SECOND WAR?

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXVIII, Issue 1612, 19 September 1916, Page 4

SOUND PEACE OR A SECOND WAR?

.Ap vigorous warning is given by 1 “Y,” writing in the Fortnightly Review, against any (‘(inclusion to the war which might lead to a second war. . He shows that certain circummight Io;ul to n (■'oiitiiiuution of or renewal of the horrors of war which we all want to see ended. But the longest way may prove to be the shortest way in the end. “A cursory examination of the situation in the different scenes of this world-war must suffice to show anyone that an early peace could oniy he to our disadvantage and the advantage of Germany. She holds in her hands substantial acquisitions which she could barter for advantageous terms that would e\entually° secure for her many of the objects she felt sure of obtaining ’when she declared war on her neighbours; If a peace conference were to commence its work at this moment it could not ignore the territories held by Germany and Austria.-

“Thera is - Belgium, with the exception of an part; there is mueh of northern France; there are Poland, Servia, and Montenegro. If Germany offered at the first sitting to restore all of them, there is no conceivable conference or arbitration tribunal —composed as either would be, of functionaries, lawyers, and financiers —that would not'applaud her magnanimity, and be extremely indulgent in supporting any counter-claim tor damages.

“Yet, if such a peace were concluded, Germany would he 'beyond all question the triumphant party, not precisely in the manner of Napopleon deposing old dynasties and substituting his own, but in a thoroughly businesslike style establishing her overmastery, and shattering for ever the concordance and mutual confidence of the Allies. “The admission may not be palatable, but the war has shown that when it began Germany was the. strongest and most formidable Power in the world. If peace veie to he concluded at the moment when she was still in possession of her temporary spoils that reputation would be confirmed. Unconsciously perhaps, but effectively, all States would become in some form or other her vassals. The cohesive cement between them supplied by the desire to smash Germany as the common foe of all having failed to endure to the end, each detached unit would in its turn succumb to the force, or the maternal pressure, of those Central European Powers, which are a law unto themselves.

THE POSITION EXAMINED.

“Let ns examine for a moment what Europe would be like on such a supposition. Take, for instance, a restored Belgium. She would recover her nominal independence, it is true, hut without owing it to her champions. Her resources are drained, her prosperity is departed. She would have no chance of reviving them, save by subservience to Germany, for the ■ reputation of France and England as her equals would have been destroyed. Nor would the position of France he very different. Even if it were assumed that Germany left France where she was in August, 1914, it would mean a final farewell to the lost provinces, and the conversion of the Grand Duchy of Lnxemherg into an integral. German province. “How would England herself faref: Is her naval and aerial superqrity on such an unchallengeable basis in this age of scientific warfare that she can afford to ignore the rest of the world, and think only of her insular security? “Could England safely attempt to stand alone? Let ns not forget that, in the suppositious circumstances created by an early and precipitate peace, while Germany would not he less hated by the French and Belgians, England would he despised. Nor would any consolation he forthcoming from the side of Russia. At the worst she could always turn eastwards and become more of an Asiatic and less of a European Power. She, of all the victims not of German might, hut of her Allies’ weakness and faint-heartedness, might find compensation in a new scene.

“Such would be something like the aftermath of a peace arranged while Germany retained in her hands the spoil she has temporarily wrested from her neighbours.. If the need of an early peace were to be admitted at this moment, then its terms could not be otherwise than favourable to Germany. Yom-