The Manawatu Herald. Thursday, March 11, 1915. NOTES AND COMMENTS.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXVII, Issue 1372, 11 March 1915, Page 2

The Manawatu Herald. Thursday, March 11, 1915. NOTES AND COMMENTS.

Speculation as to the turn current events are likely to take is frequently a futile proceeding, but occasionally the “hole in the ladder” is so obvious that there is a certain amount of safety in pro phesyiug. Such an occasion appears to arise out of the present situation in European Turkey and the adjacent Balkan States. No one has the least doubt as to the outcome of the operations now proceeding in the Dardanelles. It is only a question of a few days when this key to the Golden Horn will be forced, and no one expects the tired old Asiatic to make any better job at defending Constantinople than he did at attempting to invade Egypt. But the taking of the Turkish capital, important and far reaching though its effect must be, will be merely an incidental preliminary to the turn of events in connection with the present European campaign.

Constantinople will, unless we are much mistaken, prove an interesting “forking of the roads.” Two campaigns, operating in different theatres, will probably spring from it, one will be to the south, in Asia Minor, and the opposing forces will be the Turks, futilely attempting a desperate stand, and the allied forces advancing from Smyrna, supported possibly by another allied advance from Gallipoli. One can hardly say with certainty whether this advance will be prior to, or after, the fall of Constantinople. In all likelihood, however, the fighting in Asia Minor will begin before and continue for some time after that much-to-be-desired event.

But the probable campaign in Asia Minor will have far less interest for us than the tremendous possibilities following the use. of Constantinople as a base of operations for an attack from the south on the armies of Austria and Germany. In this connection much, of course, depends upon the attitude adopted by Bulgaria and Rouraania. An allied army cannot advance northward from Constantinople without crossing either Bulgarian or Roumanian territory. Bulgaria, or rather the Bulgarian King, is so utterly unreliable that no one can forecast with any correctness just what course she will pursue. The Government at Sofia is, however, reported to be deeply impressed by the happenings in Greece, and it will be in the last degree surprising if her own selt-interest,

to say nothing of her desire to repossess Adriauople and the surrounding Thracian territory does not induce her to throw in her lot with the Entente.

In addition, there is the strong likelihood of Roumauia joining the Allies. She desires to recover Transylvania, in the south-east -of Hungary, and, shrewder than Bulgaria, has already seen which side is more likely to help her attain this end. It may, therefore, be fairly safe to assume that before long a way should be opened for an allied advance through the Balkans—either through Bulgaria or Roumania —and here is where the big possibilities come in. It will mean a third theatre of operations, in addition to those in France and Belgium in the west, and Poland and Galicia in the east,

In this third theatre of war, the Allies —what with French native and white troops from southern France and northern Africa ; British troops from Malta, Egypt, and England herself; Indians, Australians and New Zealanders from Egypt—could easily muster from 400,000 to 500,000 men. Russia could throw anything up to half a million men across the Black Sea to join them. Roumania, if she comes in, could muster close on another half million. Thus the fall of Constantinople, and the intervention of only one Balkin State, may, and possibly will, mean another attack on Austria from the south, of from a million to a million and a half soldiers. If Greece comes in, as she certainly will, at least a quarter of a million will be added to the total. Thus the possibilities are that a third jaw will shortly be added to the nut cracker so relentlessly squeezing in on Austria and Germany irom east and west, and the task of resisting the additional pressure vs ill add still mote to the perplexities which beset the lunatic of Potsdam and the decrepit head of the Dual Monarchy.

Even should the Balkau States all remain neutral, there is still a way open from the south by way of Montenegro. This would involve an additional amount of sea transport, but no insuperable difficulty, But reading between the lines of recent cables it would appear that there is little necessity to consider this eventuality. Events appear to be so shaping themselves that Constantinople may be required as the base of the coming new theatre of war, and then we shall see what we shall see. But even if otherwise, Salonika would do almost as well, and with Veuizelos returned to power in Greece, it will, if necessary, be assuredly offered. In any case the advance from the south may be expected before the spring has merged towards summer.

Wic are reliably informed that steps are being taken to approach the Government to acquire a large flax area in this district. Beyond this fact we have no further information. The hemp industry is growing in importance, and has reached that stage in the value ot our exports that the Government cannot allow any minor obstacle brought about by private monopoly of the green blade to hinder its growing development. The total value of exported phormiura for 1913 was ,£721,924, about 70 per cent, of which was manufactured in this district. In this province alone the industry gives employment to upwards ot 2,000 men, an important industrial factor. If production Is to be increased, then the Government must remove, either by the acquisition of flax areas or regulations governing royalties, any hindrances or unfair restrictions governing the manufacture and output. So far as the flaxworkers are concerned, the Arbitration Court settles their grievances, but the millers, except those who have their own freeholds, are under the thumb of the grower, and are compelled to abide by whatever arrangement the latter makes, or get out. This is where the hitch comes in, and where the Government should commence to investigate, A conference with the Prime Minister may pave the way to putting the Industry on a more solid foundation.