WAR SPECULATIONS.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXVI, Issue 1280, 4 August 1914, Page 3

WAR SPECULATIONS.

NEW ZEALAND TRADE

MEAT ON THE WATER

A representative of the Christchurch Press had several conversations with Christchurch business men, the subject of the interviews being the war and its probable effect on the trade of the country. It was emphasised in every case that the opinions uttered were merely speculations, as no one at present could tell definitely what would happen with regard to the European conflagration. Some inquiries were made from a business man interested in the Frozen meat industry, and he stated that at the present time there was approximately half a million carcases of mutton and lamb afloat. “As matters are at present,” he said, “I £tn afraid we can give you very little more information on the question than the man in the street. Luckily for the farmer, this trouble has come at a time when it will not effect him greatly, so far as the export ot meat is concerned. The meat season is to all intents and purposes at an end for this year, and it will not re-open until about December, by which time it is to be hoped that everything will be settled. Should the trouble continue, and England become embroiled, there is no doubt that the price of foodstuffs will rise greatly, in .fact, they may reach a stage when it may pay shippers here to pay the enhanced insurance risks and take all chances of getting meat and other produce Home to where it is needed most.

“If the British Navy found that it had enough to do without policing the trade routes, there is always a chance of consignments being captured by the enemy, and in that case the loser would not be the farmer, unless he was shipping Home on his own account, but the merchants, and ultimately, I suppose, the insurance companies“A long continuation of the war opens up a very unfavourable prospect for New Zealand. This Dominion is so entirely dependent upon the export of her -primary products that a stoppage of trade would be positively disastrous. A certain percentage of the surplus meat might be got rid of by export to America, but the United States could only take a proportion, and probably the price given for that would not be as good as is being received at the present time. The Government would be unable to get money, public works would naturally have to be stopped, and there would almost certainly be great distress. The exports for the last twelve months were valued at about and over 80 per cent, of that came from the primary products, so it is easy to imagine the result to the Dominion if this source of wealth was stopped. “I should say that in that event all the freezing companies would be forced to close down, could do nothing else. Manufacturers would have to do likewise, as it would be no use making goods that could neither be sold in the Dominion nor exported to the outside markets. Raw material, such as wool, would also drop heavily, because all manufacturing, or practically all, would have ceased in England. The only bright spot, so far as New Zealand in concerned, is the thought that we could not get starved out. If the meat we produce here could not be exported, we should soon have a huge surplus in a very short time, there would not be enough food, and it would either have to be disposed of at very low prices or got rid of somehow. However, it is a little futile to speculate upon all these possibilities until something more definite in the way of news is to hand.”

A shipping man remarked that the effect of the war on the Dominion shipping would depend very much upon the insurance companies. He pointed out that it was fairly easy nowadays to get insurance, though if the war became general, the risks would go up to considerably beyond what they were at present. This would mean an augmentation of freight rates. “It is possible, ' though,” he said, “that the prices ot commodities at Horae would be so high that it might be worth while for New Zealand shippers to pay the increased freight and increased insurance rates on their goods, and chance sending them Home. The shipping companies , would certainly send ships between the two countries if cargo was certain, and if the shippers found it possible, to pay the increased freights and charges necessitated by the higher rates of insurance.”