WHO WILL BE THE NEXT POPE?

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXIV, Issue 1059, 20 June 1912, Page 4

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT POPE?

Pope Pius X. has recovered from his recent illness, and may live for many years ; but he is 75 years old, and he suffers from a disease capable of producing surprises and complications from one moment to another. His heart, kidneys, and respiratory apparatus are subject to functional disturbances, while every attack of gout leaves him weaker than before. And be is only mortal, like the rest of men.

Sooner or later he will have a successor, another Pius or Leo or Gregory. Who will it be ? The ancient prophecy, attributed to St. Malachy of Armagh, and in any case many centuries old, picked out future pontiffs by Latin words characterising their native place, family, character or pontificate. Thus Pius IX. was “Crux de cruce”—“a cross from a cross’’ —and the cross of his life came from the “Cross of Savoy” ; Leo XIII. was “Lumen iucoelo’’—“a light in the heaven” —and not only did his coat of arms contain a flaming star, but his pontificate and personality were regarded as singularly brilliant. Pius X., elected ou August 4th, iu the midheat of summer, ou the Feast of St. Dominick, whose well-known symbol is a dog holding a burning torch in its mouth, was foretold as “ignis ardeus,” or “burning fire,” because, perhaps, his pontificate was to be one of rapid reconstructions and reforms, burning up so much that was antiquated in the government of the Catholic Church. And Pius X.’s successor ? Pius X.’s successor is to be known by a motto which is an omen, the most direful of all the prophetic phrases, except the last of them, which alludes to the end of the world. His pontificate is to be “Religio depopulata”—“Religion depopulated”—a great apostoy of nations and individuals from the Catholic Church ; and there are many who will tell you that the air is already teeming with signs of this falling away iu France, Portugal, Spain, Italy and even Germany. But prophesying iu this case does not help one to pick out the successor of Pius X. That can be done only by a careful analysis of the present situation. The electors of the Roman pontiff are the College of Cardinals, and now, for the first time in more than a thousand years, the Cardinals exclusively. One of the most striking acts of Pius X. was to abolish the veto of France, Spain and Austria, by which these Powers excluded, for political reasons, one prominent cardinal from the papacy. According to the new legislation, not only is such a veto absolutely invalid, but should any cardinal introduce it, directly or indirectly, into the conclave, he becomes thereupon by the very act excommunicated and subjected to other severe penalties. The lull number of the College of Cardinals is seventy, but there are always a few vacancies. On the death of Leo XIII. there were 64 cardinals. Cardinal Moran failed to arrive in time from Sydney, and Cardinal Celesia, of Palermo, was prevented by illness from taking part in the election. So the actual number of votes was 62. Of these, 30 have since died, and Cardinal Sarto has become Pius X., so that just half (31) of the members of the last conclave are still alive. During the last eight years Pius X. has created only seventeen cardinals, two of whom have died. At the present moment the College of Papal Electors numbers 47, one (Cardinal Areglia) “created” by Pius IX., 31 by Leo XIII , and 15 by the present pontiff. But, as matters stand at present, the cardinals who could vote would not be 47. Cardinal Albuquerque, of Rio de Janeiro, could not arrive in time unless the conclave was unduly prolonged, and Cardinal Puzbyna, who introduced, the “veto” of Austria against Cardinal Rampolla, will not be able to come on account of illness. This leaves only 45 caidiuals for the conclave. The important element to be considered is that of nationality under its broad aspect of Italian and nonItalian. Twenty-eight of the cardinals are Italian, the rest belonging to other nations. The two who at present would not be able to take part in the conclave are non-Italians. Thus the voters would be 28 Italian cardinals and 17 of other nationalities. This fact alone would be sufficient, humanly speaking, and under present circumstances, to prevent the election of a non-Italian Pope. Besides, it. is an open secret that none even 'of the non-Italian cardinals is anxious for a non-Italian Pope while the Roman question remains as it is. The choice is therefore necessarily limited to the

Italian cardinals. Eight years have greatly changed the possibilities of election of those who received votes at the last conclave. Many of them obtained only one, two or three suffrages, but nearly all of them have now reached an age when election would be practically impossible. Capeclatro is 87. ,Di Pietro 85. Oreglia 83, Agilardi 79, Serafino Vannutelli 77, Cardinal Gotti, who in the early stages of the conclave received 19 votes, the nighest number after Cardinal Rampolla, is not only 77 years of age, but is in a very precarious state of health. The others who received a vote or two are Gennari, born December 29, 1839 ; Casseta, born August 12th, 1841 ; Respighi, born September 22nd, 1843; and Richelmy, born November 29th, 1850. Finally, there is Cardinal Rampolla, who received 29 votes, and was 68 years of age on August 17th, 1911. The other cardinals of Leo XIII’s. time who have come into prominence during the present pontificate are Cardinals Ferrata, prefect of the congregation of the sacraments, who was 64 last March, and Martinelli, prefect of the congregation of Rites, who is just 63.

Ol the Italian cardinals created by Pius X., only three stand out as being “papabili.” They are Cardinals Gasparri, president of the commission for the codification of canon law, who is in his seventieth year ; I)e I,ai, secretary of theconsistorial congregation, who is 58 ; and Maffi, Archbishop of Pisa, not quite 53. This may be said to exhaust the list of cardinals who would obtain one or more voles if a conclave were held under the present sacred college. The significance of the list will become clearer it we look at it from different aspects. Taking the cardinals in it, according to age, it would look like this: First, Gennari, I2 ; second, Cassetta, 70; third, Gasparri, 69; fourth, Rampolla, 68; fifth, Respighi, 68 ; sixth, Ferrata, 64 ; seventh. Martinelli, 63 : eighth, Richelmy, 61 ; ninth, De Lai, 58 ; and tenth, Maffli, 53.