The Manawatu Herald. Thursday, April 8, 1909. PROHIBITION IN NINE YEARS.

Manawatu Herald, Volume XXXI, Issue 453, 8 April 1909, Page 2

The Manawatu Herald. Thursday, April 8,1909. PROHIBITION IN NINE YEARS.

The official returns in connection with the recent local option poll were recently gazetted, and it is now possible to see just where the liquor trade stands in the estimate of the electors. Here is the story in figures of all the polls since 1896 : Valid I’anoro N'» Year Held Cont. Hud. License ItiiUl -■ M'J.Hj IOV.TSI Ua.ITS ISKU 148,1 i'.i LU.2IU !■>!,.C'-l IDO.') :W7.(118 IHL',BB). L'iMC.I L'S.TM I'JOS -111,'-W 188,1 U) Il'.VrtD --I.il I It will b« seen from the above table that the Prohibitionists were able to bring 22,703 No-Bicense voters to the poll in excess of their supporters in 1905, where their opponents could only get an increase of 5256, or less than 25 per cent of the increase shown by the strikers-oul of the top line. In 1908, both sides were able to show phenomenal increases in their supporters, which were due chiefly to improved organisation and more vigorous campaigning. At the present rale of increase in the No - license vote, total prohibition 011 national poll would be due nine years hence, or in 1917. This can be seen from the steady increase of a little under one per cent per annum in the proportion of electors whose voles are required to carry No-Biceuse throughout the whole country. Prior to 1902, the Electoral Department didn’t place on record the total number of valid voting papers returned, but lumped the formal and informal votes together, merely giving the total number of people who went to the poll, hence the blanks in the table given above, and the impossibility of calculating accurately the per-< centage of No-Bicense voters at the polls of 1896 and 1899. Owing to the fact that the boundaries of districts are perpetually changing, not to mention the disappearance of old districts and the creation of new ones, the returns from iudivi~dqal electorates are of little value in'determining the relative posiof the parties, consequently

it was all the more desirable that accurate records of the totals of all the polls should have been kept. Still, beariug iu mind the fact that 60 per cent of all the voters returning valid papers is required iu order to carry No-License on a national poll, the probable tale of Bung can be read in the following table:—

Increase* in (lie voles ca-t for (ha respective issues am! tlie percentage of voters voting No license

rereentnt-'e Voting NoYear Cont. lied. No-L. License.

181 W - - -■ 38.0” 189!) 2,809 X 9,100 20,298 19.1 1902 4,006 24,489 92,919 48.8 100.0 94.1:!;') 18.8)7 47,2(4 51.2 1908 5,256 11,50.7 22,709 5:1.9 ''Approximate and liascd on an allowance of 2.2 per cent, for informal votes.

It is the last column that really tells the tale. The figures giving the total votes and their increases are impressive enough, but it is the value of the total vote that counts, and it will be seen that the Prohibitionists are now 6.i percent short of three-fifths majority for No-License throughout the entire country, and unless there is a phenomenal reaction iu public opinion, the extinction of the licensed trade in New Zealand is not far distant.