Manawatu Herald. [Established Aug. 27, 1878.] SATURDAY, JULY 9, 1904. Is International War Imminent?

Manawatu Herald, 9 July 1904, Page 2

Manawatu Herald. [Established Aug. 27, 1878.] SATURDAY, JULY 9, 1904. Is International War Imminent?

A new phase of the struggle in the Par East has been disclosed by recent cablegrams from the seat of war. li has been suggested that the objective of the Russian squadron in attempt ing to escape from Port Arthur is to reach the port of Kaiochau (ceded by China to Germany in 1898.) Om of Japan’s leading journals, the To kio Times, in maintaining this view, states that if the Russian fleet is allowed to obtain refuge at Kaiochau Japan will regard Germany’s action as a mark of open hostility, and will appeal to Great Britain for sup port under the terms of the Anglo Japanese alliance. In the event of Russia carrying out this project, and Japan making such request, we are to infer that Great Britain will be compelled to declare wav against Russia and Germany in pursuance of her contract with Japan a step fraught with perilous and farreaching possibilities for the British race. If Great Britain takes a hand in the struggle, it is hardly likely that Prance and America wih be content to remain neutral spectators in a matter which so.. Vitally concerns them, and the resV.lt will be the waging of a war of a magnitude and importance unparalleled in the history of modern times. .But, while admitting that if Germany adopts a hostile attitude towards Japan, such serious consequences,ns these would probably follow, it is Well to take a glaince at the provisions of the famous alliance by which Great: Britain pledged herself to the Japanese, and determine exactly what are the relations existing between.our nation and theirs. Articles II and 111, the operative, clauses of the treaty, run as follows-: Article ll.—lf either Great Britain or Japan, in defence of their respective interests as above, should become involved in war with another Power, the other High Contracting Party will maintain a strict neutrality, and use its efforts to prevent other Powers from joining in hostilities against its ally. Article lII.—If in the above event any other Power or Powers should join in hostilities against that ally, the other High Contracting Party will come to its assistance, and will conduct the war in common, and makepeace in mutual agreement with it.

Tha treaty, which was signed in February, 1902, is binding for 5 years; but it may be terminated by a year’s notice from either Power. If, however, the term expires whilst Great Britain or Japan is engaged in war, the treaty remains in full force until peace is concluded. Article II has already been rendered effectual ; and the recent agreement with France, and King Edward’s visit to, and cordial recep ion at Berlin, demonstrate dearly that Great Britain is performing her part of the contract in pacifying and conciliating those Powers likely to take up arras on behalf of Russia. In the event of Germany or any other Power joining with Russia, Great Britain would be compelled in accordance with Article 111 to carry on war in conjunction with Japan, both against Russia and the Power or Powers so joining her. It is most improbable, however, that Germany would be so rash as to commit herself to Russia, since the act would be one of almost suicidal folly. In the first place Germany would lose, rather than gain, by entrusting her future to a Power whose influence is already on the wane, and who would use her solely as an instrument to further her.own .schemes-'of self aggrandisement ; while in the second place Germany's adherence to Ruar sia would call great Britain to the assistance of Japan—a measure that would iolavlb^sly ini the annihi I siiiod ot German y’s 'maritime com•meT'cG,; the loss o&?W colonips and dependencies, and the Extinction for ever of her fondly cherished hopes of territorial expansion. It will be more advantageous to Germany-if Russia is forced to evacuate Manchuria, for she will obtain far more favourable concessions from Japan than ever Russia would be willing to grant her. But even if Germany suffered the Russian vessels to shelter in Kaiochau, and thus exceeded the bounds of a neutral Power, we do not quite see how Great Britain would be liable under Article 111 to come to the assistance of Japan. The agreement expressly states that in the event of either ally becoming involved in war, and of any other Power or Powers joining in hostilities against that ally, that the other Contracting Party will come to its support. The whole matter turns upon whether (granting for the sake of argument that Germany allows the Russian squadron to anchor in Kaiochau), these circumstances would constitute a “ joining in hostilities ” against Japan, or merely an infringement of the principles of neutrality. The context of Article 111 apparently admits of several widely different interpretations, and

it is not altogether clear whether Britain would regard Germany’s action as coming under Article II or Article 111 of the agreement. Whatever way the matter may be decided, the situation is one of considerable importance to the Empire, since we may at any moment be plunged into a long and costly struggle against a nation to whom we bear no enmity. If such consequences as these could have been foreseen by the late Lord Salisbury when he promulgated the AngloJapanese Convention, he would no doubt have pondeaed the matter more carefully before contracting an alliance which might prove so detrimental to the peace and prosperity of the nation.