Manawatu Herald. [Established Aug. 27, 1878.] THURSDAY, FEB. 4, 1904. Japan and Russia.

Manawatu Herald, 4 February 1904, Page 2

Manawatu Herald. [Established Aug. 27, 1878.] THURSDAY, FEB. 4, 1904. Japan and Russia.

Whether within a few days, next month, or five years from now, war between the above Powers seems almost certain. Japan is steadfast in her demands, whilst Russia is so arrogant, and the importance of the issues between them is so vital that there can hardly be a settlement except through the supreme test. There is every indication that Russia is gaining more by delay than Japan. The correspondents in the Far East inform us that Russia Is at the present time unprepared for war; while Japan, on the othsr hand, has for many months been ready at every point for the conflict, and she cannot hope to keep pace with Russia in the increase of her navy. J apan has shown remarkable self-restraint and moderation on the Manchurian question, and has submitted to see territory which was hers by right of conquest wrested from her by Russia and subsequently appropriated by the despoiler. So far as Korea is concerned, Japan's very existence depends on the peninsula —the granary of Japan—being kept out of the grasp of the Slav, and any serious encroachment on that territory must be resisted to the Utmost. Throughout the lengthened negotiations between Japan and Russia the former has done all that it can possibly do by process of diplomatic negotiation to avert war and secure peUcd with honor. Should war eventuate, the I world must know that it has not been rashly occasioned by Japan, and sympathy will be given her all the more readily. The Germans, With their inherent love of intrigue, have resOrte’d to every device in order to bring about a conflict between Russia and Japan, in which the wily statesmen of Berlin forsee that both France and England might be drawn by their obligations to their respective allies. Though it is most difficult to correctly interpret the conflicting news from the seat of strife, the cables seem to indicate that the conflict is appreciably nearer. There are many who hold that Russia only "means to go as far as she can without engaging in actual warfare,'and that die moment the danger Signal is hoisted she will back down. But it may be asked : when did the Northern Power ever retire from a position she felt strong enough to hold ? Japan rejects Russia's claim to Manchuria, but it is her Korean influence of which the little brown man is most jealous. To guard and extend this she has made great naval and military preparations, and it is incredible that she should now lay aside her ambitions and abandon all she has been planning and working for during many years. It is not conceivable either that Russia, with her vast population, her mighty resources, her great military strength, her trans-Siberian railway, and her confidence in herself, should give way. Although the cables have lately referred repeatedly to the improved prospects and the efforts being made to preserve peace, which was declared to be almost assured, still there are indications which show that the attitude of both Powers is expectant of war. One thing is certain, unless a diplomatic settlement is arranged, a struggle of unparalleled magnitude will take place, involving the most momentous consequences. It will be practically a struggle for the dominant position in the Far East. The question as to whether it will be a duel, or whether other Powers will be drawn into the vortex will depend on circumstances. The commencement of hostilities will probably be marked by a great naval battle, and on the result of this would depend Japan’s chance ot ultimate success. Providing the Russian fleet could hold the Japanese at bay, the result would be foregone, unless other nations went to her assistance, as there would be no possibility of the Mikado’s troops reaching Manchuria or Korea, Even if Japan wins at sea, she will have to keep it almost free of the enemy to allow of her transports conveying troops to Korea. It is not at all likely that Great Britain will stand idly by and calmly see the balance of power in the Far East seriously disturbed. Indications, too, point to the probability of America taking part in the decision of the-ques-tion. Whether or not there is any truth in the statements made regarding a Russo-German agreement it is hard to say, but the fact that France has been working hard in conjunction with England to bring about a peaceful solution of the trouble makes it hopeful that the French will not be led by any future contingency to take sides with Russia against the British, with whom she is now working so cordially in the interests of peace. Of course until hostilities actually begin there is always a chance —perhaps remote —that something will happen that will avert a war; war once started, it is hard to say to what dimensions it would lead, or how many nations would be forced by circumstances to take a hand.