NOTES ON THE WAR.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXVII, Issue 17280, 22 September 1916, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR.

Mr Ross’s tplegram concerning the battle on Friday and Saturday of last week locates the New Zealanders definitely on the Flcrs sector, and his ‘reference to the units engaged shows that the troops had been transferred from the northern portion of the British front. The brief casualty lists showed that the Dominion’s troops were not vbrv busily engaged during the latter part of August, when most of them .wore presumably in billots, hut it would not have been safe on that account do conclude that a transfer was being made. The Rifle Brigade appears,to have been sent into tho trenches’ at the beginning of last week, but it was not until Friday that pronounced " activity developed, and then, of course, the New Zealanders were participating in the big advance. They seem to have been placed between Foureaux YYood and Delville Wood, tho portion of the front on' which, ns, far as can be judged, the /maximum advance was achieved. Air Ross speaks of them as having . passed their appointed objective and having to be recalled because of checks that had .been sustained elsewhere.' The next series of objectives to he attacked will-be •the villages of Eaucourt, Gueudcoourt and Leshcenfs, the road joing 'them being rather less than a mile north of Flcrs.

The, fierce German counter-attacks, reported in the French communique, were to he expected. Counter-attacks were common enough before, but sooner or later the enemy was sure to mass reinforcements for n great effort to stop the Allied forward move,, and when the French got across the Peronne-Bapaume road at Boucliavesnes the position was beginning to look really serious. The figures that have been published in regard to the forces used by the enemy north and south of the Somme seem to dispose of the supposition that there could ho a lormid able concentration .on any other sector, and the .presumption is that the Germans’ chief anxiety is to meet tho Allied offensive and to keep their front intact until winter arrives. Otherwise they' Allied offensive might have been more effectively countered by an enemy thrust elsewhere. But if fifty-three divisions have been used on the Somme sectors theydinve been'needed, and the sacrifice of large numbers of. men in such massed counter-attacks- as that described in the French report implies that the" enemy's anxiety is now intense. - *

Unfortunately there are discrepancies between Sir Douglas Haig’s statement of the Gerhian numbers, used against) the British and tho,’ “ statement from an authoritative source ” cabled next day. The latter dealt with both British and French fronts. The British Commander-in-Chief said that th'irty-fiVc enemy divisions had boon used against the British and twentyeight of them had, been withdrawn shattered. This should mean' that the enemy’s losses against the Britisn have reached at least 280.000 out of roughly 700,000 men engaged/ The- second statement gave' fifty-three as tho total number of enemy divisions on tho sectors north and south of the Somme, and if the losses have been in proportion the total cannot be far short of half a million. Due of tho* military critics has stated it at a higher figure; but even if the total is placed as low as 450,000, it works cut at the equivalent of ton men to the yard on the whole front of the'offensive. These' are not all permanent losses, of course, but they are for the most part definite losses so far as the. present operations are concerned, and their magnitude raises a highly important, question. The' Germans must be keeping from; 250,000 to 300,000 men constantly on tho front, and, approximately that nunlber will be put out of action during tho next three weeks if the intensity of the conflict is sustained., That wi!J leave only some. 350,000 of the fifty-three divisions still able to bear tho burden, and as the ' broken divisions are presumably sent, into the depots to bo reorganised the enemy’s General' Staff, will have to find its reserves from other sectors- Ihe front may bo patched up sufficiently to hold until the end of October, but it ‘looks Jis if the enemy were njmning things dangerously fine. \

It stands to reason 'that tho Allies have not, been forging ahead without paying the price, and possibly tho Germans imagine that, badly as they are pushed for men, the Allies must bo in like case. The comments' that are appearing in British journals at present are calculated to encourage that idea. The military authorities ought to know what the requirements are, and it has been stated again and again that the War Council of the Cabinet, acting An tho recommendation of the Chief cf the General Staff, is given all that it asks for. Til these circumstances there surely should bo no need for such a newspaper agitation as that now lieing carried on, and whether the demand for more men is well-grounded or not, it is an encouragement .to* ilie enemy to suggest that thero is a shore-

Actually what tho newspapers < rc discussing, however, is not present requirements,’ hut those of next year. There can be no lack of men for current operations, -because all the men that could possibly bo required to make good tho wastage are at the bases in France. The offensive was not opened until t-liat essential matter had been -ar-

ranged. And the depots in tho Mother Country have hundreds' of thousands more waiting to be sent to France. The Allied offensive is not going to fail for lack of men, and there is no sign that it will fail through lack of guns and ammunition. The uncertain factot is tho weather. Cfiven a sufficient period of fine weather one might now confidently predict the breaking of the German front, or, a. more probable alternative, a drastic contraction of it; but already the conditions are broken, and oven if a fine October should be experienced, the winter will be putting an end to the big fighting. This is tho factor on .which, undoubtedly, Hie enemy is counting, and tho next week oi- two should show whether ho has faith in'his own calculations. The magnitude of tho attack on the French front, an , attack involving a heavy sacrifice of men, suggests that even now ho is dubious.