WELLINGTON NEWS

Hokitika Guardian, 1 February 1930, Page 2

WELLINGTON NEWS

1 LAST YEAR’S TRADE. (Special Correspondent.) WELLINGTON, January 30. The exports from N.Z. last year, according to the official figures amounted to £55,579,063 as compared with £56,188,481, a decrease of £609,418, of which £595,270 offered in the last quarter. The trade returns for the calendar year do not give a correct view of the export trade of the Dominion, because in the last quarter of the year the new season’s produce are exported in some quantity. The year ended September 30 is a more reliable guide and the exports for the past two years showed very little difference;' Witli October 1 we began a new year, and therefore the figures for the past quarter are illuminating. The exports for the past three months amounted to £9,924,284, as compared with £lO,519,554 showing the shrinkage of £595,270, as stated above. The new season commenced with the export of dairy pr duce, and the market opened satisfactorily. In October N.Z. Butter was realising on the average 181 s per ewt the same as in the previous season and

although values dropped in November , the}" were still practically on a parity with the previous November, but after that there was manifest a disparity and by the end of December, the 1929 prices had declined by 25s per cwt. as compared with December 1928. Cheese on the other hand had registered a heavy decline right throughout the three months, but it was thought that with the increase in production the returns from' butter and cheese would equal that of 1928, but there is now little prospect of that unless the market improves greatly* it is wool and meat that appear to have contributed the most to the downward movement, and there is little prospect of wool recovering, or any of our other products because the purchasing power of the overseas consumers is lower, than it has been. We have to rely largely on Britain and England is faced with difficult monetary conditions with every pros-

pect of increased taxation. We must expect lower prices generally for our produce, and this conforms with the announcement previously made by economists that the tendency of commodity prices is downwards. For the year ended September 30 last, the exports were valued at £56,174,333 as compared with £56,248,593 in the preceding year the decrease being £74,260 which is trifling. We have had two good export seasons and : now it seems that owing to the fall in prices the current season will show a substantial decline. For the three months to the end of December the shrinkage is 5.65 per cent, and if this ratio is maintained .throughout the year the shrinkage in exports will amount ;to ; £4,533, 660’. ; But the contraction'is likely to be greater than the figures given because wool has declined to an appreciable extent and butter and .cheese will probably go lower owing mainly to the lower purchasing power of the British consumer with the probability of increased supplies frm Europe. Britain may also have to face increased taxation as the result of the so-called legislation of the present Socialist Government. Then again Australia had had copies rains recently and w r e may expect an increased output of dairy produce from that source. So. all things considered, the - year ending'September 30,- 1930 is likely to disclose a shrinkage in value exceeding £6,000,00b. -The Government Statistician takes/JUne, 30 .as the end of the trading year, but this is scarcely correct ending because in the following three months there is a considerable amount of produce going forward and this is more noticeable in recent years since the various hoards have endeavoured to shipments. However, we are bound by official figures and these show that in 19*26 there was a big decline amounting to £9,043,505 basing values on those of 1925, but in the two following years prices ascended. The record value of our exports for the year ended .Tune 30, 1929 totalled £52,113,640; for our principal exports, and if these are valued at the prices ruling in 10X4 they would have realised £s3; .881,857y,50 that £18,231,-78-5 represents gain in price. That price gain, .cannot be expected to continue indefinitely, and may any year fall to a much JoVrfc'r level. ■' J

The imports for the past calendar year increased by £4,311,711 over 192:but of tliis' total £998,742 occurred in the last quqarter and the balance of £3 219 was registered in the previous nine months. The increase shown in the imports seems fully justified when one considers that they coincide with two heavy export, years when the purchasing power of the rural population must have been high. Unfortunately about 50 per cent of the increase in imports occurs in the,motor trade which was not justified: Traders’ stocks cannot be too. large, and therefore traders in merchandise should not feel the change ve"j much .unless, they have entered info engagements that will hamper them, but in the motor trade there js likely to be trouble, and the stocks of used cars are likely to increase abnormally;