WELLINGTON TOPICS

Hokitika Guardian, 18 September 1929, Page 2

WELLINGTON TOPICS

WORLD'S WHEAT POSITION.

(Special Correspondent^

WELLINGTON, September 16. The bulk of ,the world’s wheat is produced in the Northern Hemisphere, and principally in North America, that is in Canada and the United States, and in both countries the production is invariably in excels of domestic requirements. The surplus finds a ready market ini Europe. The production in Europe is not as large as in pre-war years, beoause Russia, has, .failed from various causes to harvest as big crops, as formerly. For the past four or five years world wheat crops have been sufficient to more, than meet .requirements, and last year’s crops in the aggregate provided an enormous surplus after providing for world’s needs. The carry-over of old wheat on August ■l, 1929, as far as statistics records show was about 150. million bushels higher than oh August 1, 1928. Most of this surplus, is in the United States. But the increase in the world carry'over this year is completely overshadowed by the certainty of a considerable reduction, estimated by Canadian wheat experts as 350 million bushels, in the supply from the 1929 crops. Climatic conditions are responsible for this. The Canadian wheat crop is estimated at 233,792,000 bushels against a record crop of 566,726,000 bqshels last

year. The wheat production in the United Sates this year is estimated at 785,726,000 bushels as compared with 902,000,000 bushels in. 1928. So that the decrease in the United States and Canada combined approximates to 490,000,000 bushels. France and Spain expected to have larger crops than last

year; the German and Italian crops were anticipated to be as good as that of last year, but in the Netherlands, Belgium and Great Britain will be smaller. In Eastern Europe the severe winter months did a fair amount of damage, and the Danubian countries are likely to; have crops about 50,000,000 bushels less than in 1928., . .'V ; The position in the'Argentine .seems

to be very serious,, according to latest messages and the . wheat crop there, .if not a total failure, will be very much less than in 1928. India has a ,new crop this year of about of sufficient proportions to meet her domestic requirements, which is better than last year when the yield was small and importations were' necessary.’ This year’s harvest in the/Yangtse Valley is safe! to have; been disappointing as regards yield and quality. . ; The new crop in Japan is reported to be below that of. .last year, .but.con,ditions have been favourable for the major wheat-producing sections of Africa. The critical time for the crop ( s.,jn the-Southern J3emisphfl?-e are September and October, although there may be damage caused later on, at all events it is impossible . to say what Australia and New Zealand will produce, .. .

Authorities, do not anticipate that international trade in wheat can not be of such great volume as in the past season. It has been estimated that the world’s consumption increases at an average annual rate of 70 million bushels, but it varies, upward or downward, by as much as 100 million bushels, depending on nunierous factors in- . eluding the supply >of domestic grains and imported carry-over, in the large importing countries and the jjrice at which the latter can buy foreign wheat; The Governments, of France, Germany and Italy have recently imposed new regulations that are calculated to restrict imports, and owing to the higher range of prices the demand from the Orient, which-was abnormal in the past season, will be considerably less.. An Australian firm in reviewing the past .season in the. Commonwealth pointed out that according to records kept by the firm the wheat crops contract about .every fifth year, and advised Australian wheat growers to increase the wheat acreage Jfor the com ing season. The price ol^ftie. cereal for the next tyvelve months is bound to be at a highly profitable level for quality grain, so that wheat growers in the Dominion are assured of a good price whether they get Government assistance of the nature they are asking for , or not. But the growers must not be misled by the belief that prices will continue at a high level. It is probable that in the season 1930-31 a lower range of prices will rule. The high prices of the current. season will induce' growers everywhere to extend operations and produce as big a crop as possible to take advantage Of the improved price position. There is a disposition always among masses to move with the stream. With increased production j values recede. Climate .of course is the dominaljing factor.