ELECTION ECHOES

Hokitika Guardian, 20 November 1928, Page 2

ELECTION ECHOES

THE DOUBTFUL SEATS

The strength of parties in the new Parliament is a subject of considerable discussion and speculation at present. It is probable that when the official counts are completed several changes will take place. On the” present figures, the United Party, together with the Independents pledged to support it on a no-confi-dence motion, holds 31 seafs, Reform 29. Labour 19 and there is one absolute Independent, .Sir Charles Statham, Speaker in the last Parliament. In four electorates, United candidates are leading by small majorities, six Reform seat's are doubtful ancj Dunedin South, where the Labour candidate has a lead of 8 votes, may be gained by the United Party. It is generally ifound 'that the absent votes tend J to support the party which is most, in favoiuv.and in the present instance that is the UnitedParty. Therefore,- it seems probable that while the United candidate may be beaten iir», Grey Lynn, owing to there being, a large number of seamen’s vptes to be;counted, the Uniter} Party jryjy gain, Patea, Mid-Canter-bury, jTpmuka, (Dunedin South and Mataura, Franklin may yet be won by the Country. Party candidate. Waikato, JUi«P°i and Riccarton should be held by United. The Wellington North seat will probably go to the Labour candidate. If the doubtful seats orfl v allocated inf this way, tha stata of parties will bo: , United and Country; 36 Refqpm 23 Labour ... 30 Independent 1 The doubtful seats find the majorities in each case arp as follow: Grey Lynn, United majority 107. Franklin, Reform majority 89. Waikato, United majority 39. Patpa, Reform majority 100. Wellington North, Reform majority 8. Kaiapoi, United majority 93. Ricoarton, United majority 11. (The Jleform member, Mr Rylp, has since been elected). ; f-; / ; >, Mid-Cantprbury, Reform- majority ' 69.. r ' Temuk'a, Reform majority 79. Dunedin South, Labour majority 8. Mataura, Reform majority 7 j)3.’ There js mueh speculation as to the composition of the next Government s It is generally expected tjiat’ Mr. Coates will resign and that Sir Joseph Ward will try to form a Governmpiit.; A coalition or fpsion between United, and Reform is considered, very prob-' able, but’there is a strong opinion that if tbp United Party went to the country it would return with a sufficen majority to cpntro] parliament'. There is a feeling that another election might not find favour-with-many of the ripw members, some of whose seats may ‘be prejudiced by another contest. The cost to the country is another factor against another election, but the bulk of,public opinion is that the United Party would be well-ad-vised to seek a greater majority. Ih the event of a further election, it is considered that the United Party would gain another ten or twelve seats, mainly at the expense of Labour. A Coalition Government is not considered undesirable by the greater majority of the business community. LABOUR’S POSITION. The ©lection is considered significant in view of ih© fact that Labour did not make the progress anticipated by the Labour leaders. Of the twen-ty-four seats lost by the Reform Party, Labour gained only five, There were fourteen Labour members in the last Parliament and . there are now nineteen. The general view of the election is that the people, while discontented with Rjeform, would not. swing round to Labour ibut choose instead the middle class.