The Guardian And Evening Star, with which is incorporated the West Coast Times. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 1928. ELECTION PROSPECTS.

Hokitika Guardian, 6 November 1928, Page 4

The Guardian And Evening Star, with which is incorporated the West Coast Times. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 1928. ELECTION PROSPECTS.

Tim general election campaign is proceeding now throughout the Dominion with a good deal of vigor. The Reform and Labour leaders are both well into the fray. -Mr Coates has been putting up the light of his life, and apparently has not spared himself at all. Elis Ministerial colleagues are mainly concerned with their own electorates, which suggests they are tied to homo considerations because ol the importance of the Opposition. Mr Holland, 100, has been on the wing, and has spoken long and loudly on every possible occasion. Mr Holland has so much to say that his set policy speech takes a full three hours—but even then his caustic critics say he leaves much unsaid in his desire to solt pedal with regard to unpopular or extreme planks of the Labour Socialist party. When Sir .Joseph Ward started out on the campaign, some special interest was excited by his entry and the vigour of the policy he revealed. Unfortunately his health failed to stand the strain and he has been forced into temporary retirement. He is expected to appear again this week, but the time is so short now that he cannot possibly cover the. ground he intended to do—which is rather to be regretted seeing that there have been many manifestations ol his returning popularity with the public at large. The average student of polities will tell you that the elections are not now what they once were. In particular this year’s event is quiet. A certain degree of calm'appears to pervade the whole Dominion. This is interpreted from different stand points to mean many things. Really, the position seems to he that the public are becoming more and more sensible, and avoiding political turmoil, are prepared to look on and listen, and make . up their minds quietly and unostentaciously. In the cities there arc eases where the old form of election amenities manifest themselves. Despite the

good intentions of nil, there are sonic candidates who are taken as a joke, and they arc treated as such hv the jokers of the constituency, much to the amusement of the audience. As showing the general trend of the public feeling it is satisfactory to find that all camlidat.es are being heard and are being given the opportunity to expound their views. In this way their opportunity to convince is not lost. And what of the convictions possible? As far as can he gleaned and judging from the reports being received, it would appear that the Reform party will have the most casualties recorded on polling day. Hut there is a good margin to allow for that, helore the fate of the Government could he scaled. Reform is likely to lose seats in the North Island, where also a ministerial seat is in jeopardy. In the South Island. too. there will lie some Reform casualties, tending to decrease hut not finally eclipsing the majority hitherto held. Reform had a majority of about ;i;J in the Parliament now going out ot office, and it is being predicted on all sides that the total will he decreased to eight or ten. That of course will be a god working majority, and will ensure the stability of Air Coates for another term, assuming that the estimate now <rivon is correct. On these figures the Reform strength will lie between ■hi and 48 representatives in Parliament, and if .Mr Coates can secure such a verdict he will have a handsome victory, and the credit of it will lie entirely his own. thereby placing bim more firmly in the leadership. The seats lost will be divided between the present official Opposition (Labour) and the United Party. It is the aim of the latter to supplant Labour as the Official Opposition, and there are many indications that this will come to pass. The United Party has a number of new men, particularly in Otago and Auckland, standing in its interests, and any of these will he welcome accessions t'jj the parliamentary ranks, which means they are all worthy election. Labour will in the main hold the city seats as heretofore, and is expected to win a country seat or two in the North Island and one in the Southern district. Perhaps three to four seats will lie the limit of the Labour gain, all with one exception, in the North Island, at the expense of Reform. There is thus every possibility' of the United Party Iwcorning the Official Opposition, and in that capacity, with the constrhctive policy if. has esinoiised. it can lie very useful in helping to mould the laws of the country. On I lie whole, therefore, while the Government of the country will remain under Reform, there is the knowledge it, will be a more virile and useful Parliament, and prospects for Liberal legislation are certainly good.