WELLINGTON NEWS

Hokitika Guardian, 16 October 1928, Page 7

WELLINGTON NEWS

WOOL TRADE PROSPECTS. (Special to ‘ Guardian.”) WELLINGTON, October 13. The seers, prophets, 'forecasters and fortune-tellers are getting busy and already there are many predictions as to the future. Now Zealand wool sales begin in Wellington on November Id and wool buyers are beginning to arrive; several returned to the Dominion >y the S.S. Niagara, and the opinion of all of them is that wool prices will not average up to last year’s prices. That prices will not he as high as last season, at any rate for the sales in November and December, has been obvious to everyone who has followed the trend of the London market, but when forecasters go the length erf predicting the amount of the fall, one is anxious to know how they arrive at their opinions. Some suggest that there will be a penny drop, others think it will be nearer 2d than a penny, while others again believe that the fall will be as much as 3d per lb. This is all guesswork, and it is an unfortunate fact that when prices begin to fall there are many people ready to take the most pessimistic view of the situation. In every market forecasts are made of the probable supply and demand, and sometimes the 'forecast comes out right, but there are many occasions when forecasts are wide ol the market.

A serious miscalculation was made in Australia regarding the clip of 1927-28, and many importers in England and elsewhere accepted the estimates as being approximately correct, and acted upon them with serious results. An estimated shortage of 300,000 bales finally Resulted in a lessened production? of-only 39,500 bales. As a result of this faulty estimating the Australian pastoralists received last season Ao,ooo,000 more, so it is claimed, than they wdre entitled to. The loss is now coming upon the trade of Great Britain and Europe, and manufacturers are naturally looking for a recovery otf this loss in the price of the raw material. So that wool preies must fall sufficiently to give the woollen trade a chance of recovering past losses, and of making a profit on the coming season’s trade. That is a natural movement, but who can say what the drop in prices will amount to. AVHAT BRADFORD THINKS.

In view of the opinions expressed since the recent decline in prices at the London wool sales, it is of interesi to read in the “ Textile Argus,” of Bradford, the views of the trade there on the wool market. It is stated that ”it is not unusual 'for a “bearing” movement to develop in the various consuming centres at this period of the year, but rarely has there been so strong a determination to get wool values down to a lower basis than there is at present. Australian woolgrbwers seem to think that the complaints made by manufacturers about the dearness of wool are not genuine, and that such complaints should be taken with a grain of salt. However, one factor cannot be disregarded, and that is the inactivity of machinei’y not only in Bradford, but also in France and Germany. Machinery owners are Decoming tired of the futile attempts to make prices of the finished, article fit in with what has to be paid for wool, and until there is a prospect of doing business at a profit machinery activity will not be restored to normal. Attempts are now being made to estimate prospective business in tops, yarns, and manufactured goods, when a reasonable buying basis for wool lias been established. Stocks have been reduced to an abnormally low point, and this should mean increased activity in the market when they have to be replaced. It is possible, of course, that a hand-to-mouth policy will be pursued even when buying is resumed, but the main consideration at present is the restoiation of confidence in the stability of prices. When the 1927-28 season open ed in Australia an average quotation for 64’s was 48d a lb compared with bid at the end of August this year. All tops and yarns are substantially dearer than they were a year ago. In the West Riding the majority of spinners and manufacturers are not working more than 'four days a week, and many worsted spinners have difficulty in running a reasonable proportion o their plant for more than three day* a week.

WOOL QUALITY. It is stated that the general set up of New Zealand was deteriorating com pared with the wool exported yeaiago. There may be some truth in tha for hitherto little scientific study ha been applied to the quality of wool as related to spinning power whether from the point of view of the sheep farmei, or from the point o'f view of the manu facturer who must take into accouiv such characteristics as the fineness, length, lustre, colouring and crimp o' the raw material. When the frozen meat industry was developed, and good prices were ruling for mutton and lamb, the breeding was for the carcase wool was regarded as a by-product. Now the consumers demand small joints and high quality in wool.