WELLINGTON TOPICS

Hokitika Guardian, 11 May 1928, Page 4

WELLINGTON TOPICS

SHADOW OF ELECTION

PARTIES PREPARING

(Special to “Guardian”.)

WELLINGTON, -May 8,

Tin; shadow of the general election already is crossing the path of the politicians. Alcmhers of the Cabinet have been particularly busy during the last month or two, hearing calls from all parts of the country and responding to them with quite unusual alacrity. Their activity and the Prime .Minister’s reticence concerning the probable date of the meeting of Parliament favour the predictions of tin early session and a short one. Other indications of something; of the kind being in the air are provided by the atmosphere about Parliament House and thp assiduity of the Reform organisers. Three years ago. it will he remembered, the election was hastened by nearly a month, the Dunedin Exhibition and the Manawntu and Canterbury shows being the good reasons on that occasion. No doubt equally good reasons for a similar arrangement could be ioutid on the present occasion and with its own plans well laid the Government probably would he best served by a strenuous contest and a brief one. That roughly is the popular view of the situation.

THE PARTIES. Though the Reformers profess to he quite confident of success at the polls, whenever the contest may come, they do not pretend to have at their command such a united body of electors as they had three years ago. They admit that they have lost from their ranks a certain number of malcontents some to Labour and some to the United Party—who always are hankering for a change, and that the Coate,s in imp. has lost some of its vitality, as was inevitable with the passage or the years. Rut allowing for these defections, which they say could not reverse the voting in more than ball a dozen constituencies, they still would have a verv comfortable majority ol sixteen or eighteen. It must be borne in mind, however, that they have lost wlint seemed to he two secure seats since the last general election and at the moment appear likely to have some difficulty in recovering them. Then they have by no means a firm grip upon the two Canterbury seats they won at the last ■election and little prospect of improving their position in either Auckland or Dunedin. LA HOUR PROSPECTS. The Labour Party, which is not addicted to sheer “bluff,” is counting upon winning twenty-three or twentyfour seats whenever the election conies about. .Many observant people, unattached to the party, think its expectation not extravagant. Mr Holland and his followers since they became His .Majesty’s Opposition in Parliament and seized by a sense ol responsibility have jettisoned many ol their extravagant notions in regard to land settlement and community control and now are making way with numbers of people who never before looked upon them with favour, dust how far this modification of public opinion will carry the party remains to be seen; but it is certain IhatAvith two dozen representatives in .tli’o House it would keep the Government very alert indeed. Meanwhile Ministers are hurling most of their denunciations at Labour and treating tiie United Party for the most pally with frank disdain, llr Holland and his colleagues have remained remarkably quiet during the last moiitn or two, but it may lie taken for granted that they are not overlooking the possibility of an early appeal to the constituencies. THE THIRD PA RTF. Tiie United Party still remains somewhat of a mystery', having, so iar as the public knows, neither a policy nor a leader, but it seems to have made some progress towards cohesion. Ibe fact that Mr Sidey and Mr Veilch. prominent figures in the old Liberal Party, have come into the union will draw many wanderers in the wilderness towards the same refuge. The Reformers make light of the intrusion ol the third party, maintaining that Unreal light lies between Labour and themselves; but if the unionists should manage to secure a dozen seats —and they profess to he sure ol a larger number—Mr Coates and his colleagues will find themselves in an even more precarious position than Mr Massey was after the general election of 15122. it seems almost impossible that the

party in power can lose its huge majority within three years, but such things lmve happened, and even impartial authorities who favour, neither Labour or Unity, predict that the huge majority at least will lie halved.