A PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

Hokitika Guardian, 27 March 1928, Page 1

A PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

THE ITALIAN WARNING. AUCKLAND, March 24. 'i ke < aided predictions of Protestor Bcndandi. the Italian seismologist, of powerful earthquakes in Europe and the South Pacific this month, and in April, do not seem to fall in with current scientific opinion on the subject. When asked to throw some light on the cablegram, Professor J. A. Har-t-ram. Professor of Geology at Auckland University College, expressed doubt whether predictions so definite as to time could he made with any certainty. lie also discounted Professor Bendandi’s assertion that liis forecasts covering the year 1927 had all been fulfilled. “Very little is known here about Professor Bendandi’s work,” said Professor Bartram. “Of course. it ifs often easy to cite earthquakes cor? responding with past predictions, ei peciallv those for areas in which eartlrqunites occur frequently. No doubt it is possible to find some verification in a general way for the theory of the occurrence of earthquakes, but it is eiost unlikely from wliat is known about them that anyone can make a prognostication so close as to nanif particular days of the month. Tllisttlicrefore, places Professor Bcndandi $ prediction in a somewhat suspicious light. At all events there is no real reason to fear any unusual occurrences in the more earthquake-tree parts of the globe. “The predictions make it appear that we are living in more or less of a fool’s paradise. They certainly show that we should make scientific provision to enable us to face the situation witli sonic knowledge by setting up more seisniological stations. Attempts have been made at various times l>y co-ordination of the frequency of occurrence of earthquakes to find out whether there are recurrent culminating periods of seismic activity. Mast of the attempts have failed, except ill establishing that in local districts there is a period in which the recurrence can tie expected. These predieitons, in any case, so far as is generally known among seismologists, are of a fairly broad nature. Tlie Hawaiian observatory certainly has obtained, by instrumental methods, very fair warning of an impending movement along tlie fault Iractuies in the island, and of accompanying eruptions of the volcanoes, Mauna l.oa and Kilauea. “In Japan the late Professor Omori predicted volcanic eruptions having a sympathetic relation to earthquakes, and was able to save great numbers of lives. During a visit to Auckland not long before bis death he pointed out that although imminent eruptions could be predicted fairly successfully, it had not always been so, in his own experience, with movements along fault fractures that produce severe earthquakes to which Japan is liable. “Possibly Professor Bendandi is on some fresh line of investigation that may lead to results of great importance. but so far as is known here that is not yet the case. Attempts have been made to correlate the incidence of earthquakes with the sun-spot cycle but without success. If the professor is not working along this line, Ins predictions may be the result of correlating records from seismological stations all over the world. These stations, including our own Hector Observatory in Wellington, publish their records at regular intervals for general information.”

Speaking of New Zealand. Professor Bartram said the Hector Observatory was fairly well fitted out, hut had not quite all the instruments needed to give a complete record of every earthquake. It was, of course, desirable that other stations, fully equipped, should be established in New Zealand. A volcanologist, Mr L. I. Grange, had been uiinclie.l to the geological survey, and had been working in the Rotorua and Taupo districts for some time. Apparently the research department intended later on to set up an observatory in that region under his charge. 1. was to be hoped the equipment would include a full set of seismoiogi-al instruments.