WELLINGTON NEWS

Hokitika Guardian, 13 December 1927, Page 4

WELLINGTON NEWS

THE TREND OF BUSINESS. (Special to " Guardian”.) WELLINGTON. Dec. 11. The latest bulletin prepared by the Department ol Economies ot Canterbury College deals with the trend of business in New Zealand, and it is pointed out in respect to external, or.

overseas trade, that exports for the year ended September .'ld. are about eleven and a-half million pounds below their high values for the year ended dune. 1923. This fall indicates a reduction of HO per cent in the purchasing power ot our exports. Imports reached their highest values, L'-i.'f millions. for the year ended .March lbHo. They now have been reduced by nearly L‘7 millions. Ihe balance of trade which was in our lavour lor the year ended •June |923, was Co.* millions against us in the following year. Since then it has improved lairly steadily, hut it is still against us to the amount of L3r,(1.000. and it appears that the rate of improvement is declining. A review of the internal trade is rendered difficult because of the absence of a bankers’ clearing house, but it is understood that efforts are being made to secure the regular publication of these figures. Other factors are taken into account. It is shown that both mortgages and land transfers have been falling lot nearly two years and have lallen oil most during the present year. Building permits have fallen somewhat—the quarterly average lor )92.>-2fi "as Cd... millions: they appear now to be kept up by high building activity in Wellington for building lias fallen ofT in the oilier three centres. ’I he trade union estimate of unemployment amongst unionists reached a high (igure in the middle of the last quarter, but the Government Labour Bureaux figures for unplaced applicants which reached a maximum of 2f>9B in midAugust, have since fallen to 2033 in mid-October. There is little indication, however, of more than a seasonal decline in unemployment. Such evidence as is available in official figures reveal the general falling off in business which has accompanied the depression of the last two years, but it shows little signs of recovery. There is evidence, however, in the improving trade balance of a . recovery to come, and some indication in the bank figures that it lias begun, but it is very doubtful whether any real effects of that recovery will be lelt until receipts for the coming season’s exports begin to flow freely' and it is certain that continued economy is necessary if full recoverv of purchasing power is Lo be ensured.

With respect to prices and the outlook it is stated that recent movements of export prices have created considerable interest, not unmixed with optimism. Wool prices at the first of the season’s sales show an appreciable improvement over last season s level , dairy produce prices have risen somewhat and the value of hides is more favourable. In overseas countries, too, it appears that the downward drift of prices which lias marked the last two years, has been checked. In the l nited States general prices appear to have turned upwards, mainly under the influence of a marked improvement in some agricultural prices, particularly cotton and hides. In Britain, the oos,t of living lias lallen by fi per cent., and the cost of food by fi per cent., during the last, two years, and the volume of production has risen during 11)27 substantially above the level ol any other since K.'2(). The general condition of Britain, which takes SO per rent of our exports, is a matter of considerable importance to New Zealand. I lianges in business conditions here depend ver; largely on the prices received lor our produce sold there. In response to the improvements in our market, in Britain and elsewhere, and particularly in the market for our farm produce, our export prices are showing some improvement, thought it is very unlikely they will approach again in the near luture the high levels ol 1920. I here is evidence, too, of .some increases in the volume of exports, especially of dairy produce. If, during the season, we can export more goods at higher prices, an appreciable expansion of our income from exports should result, and so long as: due economy of importation is observed we should lit' enabled both to liquidate ‘indebtedness incurred during the depression, and to restore our purchasing power to a more normal level.