WELLINGTON NEWS

Hokitika Guardian, 21 October 1927, Page 4

WELLINGTON NEWS

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

(Special to “ Guardian WELLINGTON, Oct. 10. There is a diliereiice of opinion as to the licst period for trade statistics. The Government Statistician has taken .June .'lO as the close of the trade year, possibly because that is the time chosen 1 1 v the Commonwealth. However, the ( handlers of Commerce, and the Wellington ('handier of Commerce in particular. consider September 30 the most suitable date for statistical purposes. *1 Ik* produce export does not reallv begin much heiorc October. The dairy factories resume operations in August, hut there is very little of the new season's dairy produce exported before the end of September. By taking .June as the end of the produce veur a good deal ol the past season s produce must inevitably be carried forward. and this carry-over must vary, hut by the end of September practically the whole ol the old season’s produce will have been shipped. However. taking September 11(1 as the close of the year the ollicial returns show that the exports for the period amounted to £15.845.313, which contrasts with l' I''.4 17.(138 in 19211. and Ldd.74ti.7d7 in Idl'd. Compared with last year there is a shrinngo ol L2.5i2.095, and compared with 1024 a shrinkage of L1’,1)01.414.

The exports for the year just closed were less than in any year since 1923. when the total was £45,171.500. In 1922 the value of the exports was £43.530.5(50. After the slump of 1920-21 the exports dec lined but showed an upward tendency for the next three years reaching the peak in 1925 when produce prices generally were very high. Since 1925 our income from exports has been reduced by nearly £ 10.(100,(KM). Thu effect of the varia-

tions in the exports is to he seen m the imports, for the year ended September ,'(!). 1922, the imports were valued at £32.041,477. in the following

veer there was an increase of over £8,000.000, in 1924 there was a further increase ol nearly Ci ,000.900, in 1925 there was a moderate jump £2,000.000, and in 1920 aliother increase of £1.000.000. the total for 1920 being £51,025.905. which is nearly £.19,000.000 more than in 1922. |

The imports for the year just closed are £43,992,934, a decrease of £5.033,034. as compared with the previous year. in 1922 the exports ex(eeded the imports hv the substantial sum of £10,899,089. and the people then had plenty of purchasing power and were anxious to huv goods. The merchants responded by increasing their imports by 9.J millions; the oxtoss of exports in 1923 was reduced to £3.9!‘9.000, hut still there was money to sp-md for loan money was coming in. In 1924 the excess of exports fell tii £1.400,000. Tt was nevertheless a balance on the right side, and the Government borrowed £5.000,004. In 1925 the excess of exports hounded up to over £5.000.000. and with the £7.030.000 borrowed that year there was ample spending power. Last year, owing to the sharp decline in exports and the increase in imports the latter exceeded the exports, that is there was an adverse trade balance of £3,200.000. Importers had miscalculated. In this (on mat ion it is necessary to hear in mind that all traders must make forecasts—forecasts of their customers’ requirements, of future prices, of future wages—and make their dispositions accordingly. The majority act as tile spirit, moves them, and as the spirit usually moves large numbers of people in an identical manner at given moments, miscalculations arc apt to have exceedingly widespread eli'eets. And that is exactly wind followed the miscalculations of last year.

Tin's voar there is a sharp drop in imports to t14d,002,f)34, Imt there appears still to he a miscalculation as to requirements. I'nr an adverse trade balance exists though it is only C 147,0 0 0. Still it shows that we are still in the dancer zone and a further substantial reduction in imports will he inevitable. Some merchants are likely to he carried away by the fact that there is every probability of an increased output ol dairy produce, and wool values are likely to be steady, but it would never do to base opinion entirely on these possibilities.

The fall in produce prices began with the return to the cold standard, which is equivalent to saying when deflation commenced. This deflation is still'in progress, and commodity prices must (onlurm to the new values. The tendency of all commodity prices is steadily downwards. Many business people are carried away in the fluctuations, as when prices advance they believe they have come to stay, and the wish becomes the parent of the thought. I lie trade figures of the Dominion are n,, t nt all satisfactory and unemployment must continue.