SCIENTIST EMPHATIC

Hokitika Guardian, 14 September 1927, Page 1

SCIENTIST EMPHATIC

QUAKES CANNOT BE PREDICTED

AUCKLAND, Sept. 12.

After having studied seismology for years and seen the results of some of tho biggest earthquakes of recent years, including those at Tokio, Messina. Santa Barbara, Professor F. X. Schaffer, the noted Austrian geologist. is quite convinced that it is impossible to predict earthquakes. Professor Schaffer is director of the Natural History Museum of Vienna, and Professor of Geology at Vienna. University. He is now on his second tour of the world and has travelled extensively. He thinks New Zealand a wonderful country, his special hobby being the study of earthquakes and volcanic! country. The professor is much, interested in our thermal region, and he says there is no district with such variety of geyser action and hot springs. Iceland and Yellowstone Park have large geysers, but it is Rotorua’s variety that makes it so wonderful.

“No,” lie said in answer to a question, “it is impossible to predict earthquakes. I have made a speciality of the subject for many years, and have made first-hand investigations in most parts of the earthquake areas of the world—in Japan. Greece, A.sia Minor, America, and elsewhere—and my sober conviction is that it is quite impossible to predict earthquakes. All that ono can say is that certain areas are liable to earthquakes. We cannot foretell them, because up to the present we do not know what causes them. IVe have absolutely no idea. “The most that we can do is to take precautions in these zones that are liable to be shaken. It is not the actual quake that causes such appalling loss of life and property as at San Francisco in 1906 and Tokio in 1923. Tt is the collapse of buildings in citie& and the dreadful fires that break out among the ruins. All that we can do in these areas subject to earthquakes is to insist that buildings shall be of safe design and made of safe materials. Brick and stone buildings should not be permitted. Reinforced concrete should bo used for business places and if they are of many storeys -they should have steel frames. For dwellings wooden-framed houses are quite suitable, such as I-have seen in your Auckland suburbs. Such precautions in regard to buildings are taken in California, in Tokio, and in southern Italy.”

This naturally led to the question of seisniolegieal observatories. Every scientist that comes along twits New Zealand with neglecting the study of thc> volcanic arca.s in which she is so rich. Professor Rcliaffer agrees that Now Zealand should have nil observatory, but lie points out that it is not such, a costly business as it sounds. A member of the .'staff of the observatory at Los Angeles has invented a very cheap seismological instrument. The professor has talked about this instrument to Dr Adams, Government Seismologist, wlio agrees that three or four such instruments could easily bo set up in the Dominion. “The information that would be made available by such observations would be of groat scientific value,” said Professor Schaffer. Such data would enable areas subject to earthquakes to be definitely plotted, and you could plan your buildings accordingly. Moreover the study) of earthquakes and tho taking of records gives much information as to how tlic interior of the earth is built up.”