PREDICTING ’QUAKES

Hokitika Guardian, 9 October 1925, Page 4

PREDICTING ’QUAKES

IS IT HAZARDOUS?

Some interestin'.:; views and incidents relating to the predict inn of earthquakes vicre given by Hr (’. E. Adiims, (internment seismologist. in tho course ol a lecture to tlie W.K A. at the end ot the week :■ t Wellington. In any scienlilic .subject, said Dr Adams, prediction ot phenomena is one of the liest tests which can lie altplied. and seismologists always try to apply that (<'sl in their elldrts to lormulale or sustain any theory as to the mechanics ol the world. Testing; the truth of a hypothesis hy predict ine its consequences i- one thine, hut to publish a prediction of an impending calamity is another. In the id's] case prediction is used simply as Ihe scieutitie lest of theory; ill the other it is assumed that the prediction is true, and it is made the basis oi action a licet i iil; the welfare of millions of people. Keen if the hypothesis were proved to he true and tho limits of strain could he determined with accuracy. it is doubtful on grounds of public policy whether earthquake predictions should lie undertaken. i ills view, said the lecturer, was strongly supported by the action of the Italian (divermneni. Kereutlv an Italian had been publishing detailed predictions of earthquakes and he predicted enough to have a fair average ol success, lie ashed '2l hours' leeway in his predictions, and with this and the nundicr that actually occurred, he could hardly tail to lie right somelimes. II is attempts tn l„- sensational ottered to do something which many eminent scientists had worked on. but in which as yet they had had little success. I’roiesMir Agueinemiione, the ablest Italian seismologist tit the present day, says there is no kinil of phenomena which lend themselves so readily to prediction as earthquake phenomena. Over a period of HO years there had been an average of HS a mouth in Italy, therefore a prediction was nearly certain to he fulfilled. The Philippines have practically the same irequency, while Japan has 1000 a year, or lour a day. The Italian (lovernment decided that tills gentleman's predictions were, regardless ol their correctness, affecting the tourist trade, and the predictor was suppressed so far as Italy was concerned. lie then transferred his act it ities and made predictions on other parts of the world.