TO-MORROW’S POLL.

Hokitika Guardian, 6 December 1922, Page 3

TO-MORROW’S POLL.

j A FORECAST. SPECIAL TO GUARDIAN. WELLINGTON. December 0. The difficulty of predicting with any precision the individual or eolieetivy icsuits of to-morrow’s contest seems to liavu increased with tlie approach of the day of decision. Alany forecasts are living made but tbe great majoi ily of them litre highly flavoured to suit this taste or that and cannot be accepted for general consumption. Of the local contests tlie one in Hut-t where a Reform and a Labour candidate are opposing Air AA’ilford. the leader of the Opposition is attracting most attention. AH’ AYilford playing the game very thoroughly, lias devoted himself rather to the general battle than his own constituency, hut Lis friends who Suva keen left in charge profess tFo’ selves as veiv confident of his return by a good, though not overwhelming majority. In Otaki, the adjoining constituency, Air Field is being hardly pressed by Air Hark ness (Independent Reformer), and Air AicCliuo (the Liberal-Labour candidate). Tbe splitting of the Reform vote appears likely to put Air AR-Chiic in. and to give the country the services of a very competent land administrator.

(-11 Wellington Suburbs. Air Wright is engaged in a very vigorous campaign. ami probably will lie returned by a good inajiuity over bis Labour opponent. lii the city proper. Labour is making the running very strongly and probably will win tlio Central division with Air Peter Fraser, and the East division (Air Newman’s old seat) with Air Afonfceith. Tl also lias a show of winning tbo North division with Mr Combs, but the presence of a Libera! Labour candidate in the field probably will enable Sir John Luke to get back with a narrow majority.

i Mr AT it f-hi’ll will hold the South division against Lis Labour opponent with a good majority. Reports coming from the Auckland distret are to tlie effect that the Reform candidates will go down before their Liberal opponents in the Bay of Islands ami Alarsden constituencies and that the Hon. J. G. Coates, though at one time badly frightened, will hold Kaipara fairly comfortably. Of the nine seats practically constituting the City of Auckland it is expected that five will to Reform and four to Labour, though the downfall of Air Chitlin McKenzie in the East division which is by wo means out of the question, would turn the balance the other wav.

Coining further south, Raglan seems safe for t :e silent Air Bollard. hut Tit times may lie lost to Reform, while Ohiiiemuri will he held for the Liberals and pnssiby the new constituency cf Waikato captured for thmii. Coming xrfutli by the two Coasts, there are not likely to lie many changes. Th" Reformer may be ousted from Gisborne. Mr Augor Brown will be beaten in Napier. Pahiatua, Masterton, and Baton may lie lost by the Government, and the Hon. D. H. Guthrie in Awn and Air Nash in Palmerston. will get track by much reduced majorities. A conscientious pricking of the card by an opposition sympathiser, predicts that of the forty six European seats in the North Island, twenty four will go •to nledged Reformers and twenty two to 1.-bc-ab. Labourites and Independents. The same authority awards tlie thirty seals in file South Island in t'-e li'-e-I’otion if fifteen on each side. 'Lis estimate assumes that Mr McCnllum. Mr Red-do and Air Horn, tlie Liberal candidates for AVrirnn. TCniapoi and AV’k'ti"ii respectively, will he beaten ami in two of these cases at anv rate, it seems t>> c r on tlie side of caution. A!> Sed'h’u is marked confidently among tV t m i-unties with the oomment that the pr-'iliei: knows AAb'sthmd. and does not doubt either its good sense or its gratitude.