WINTER SCHOOL.

Hokitika Guardian, 17 May 1922, Page 1

WINTER SCHOOL.

THE ECONOMIC PROSPECT,

The main lecture at the Winter School on Tuesday morning was given by Professor J. D. Condliffe who dealt with the economic prospects of N.Z. at the present time. Professor Condliffe dealt with the economic factors underlying the prosperity of Jtfcw Zealand before the war showing how progress had been uninterrupted since 1895. It was significant that the invention of refrigeration which was first applied to N.Z. Exports in 1882, thus opening up the great markets of the Old World to tne N.Z. producer was powerless to lift the colony out of the depression until in 18yd the general level of prices began to rise all over the world.

To the producers working largely on borrowed money rising prices meant continued prosperity. On a given output receipts constantly increased while fixed charges such a,« interest remained the same. As prices rose land values rose in sympathy and indeed rose more than prices warranted since there was a natural tendency to discount future rises. So that it was literally true that farming ns a business had not been profitable, though of course profits had been reaped from dealing I Kith in land and stock.

Then camte the war period with its inflated prices due nlmost entirely to excessive issues of credit and paper money. It had been unfortunate that these paper prices had lieen permitted to inflate still further the values of land in N.Z. It would have liGen much better for the country as a whole if part af least of the windfall of war prices had been intercepted say by a system of export duties. Instead o' this, however, the expenditure of borrowed money on such objects as repatriation had caused land values to soar to fictitious heights. Even liefore the war for two or three years the annual addition to the public debt of the Dominion had exceeded the annual revenue derived from taxation, the war had been wholly financed out of loans !u| d in addition large sums were added to the public debt to meet ordinary ex. penditure. Taxation also was increased very greatly.

The natural result of till this inflation was (hat not only did the Public Debt amount to over 200 millions, but the mortgages registered on N.Z. land had reached the figure of £‘2:10,000,000. 1 lie country could not curry such burdens, tin- overhead expenses were too great.

After the boom created by the artificial post-war conditions, had come the inevitable slump. Such depressions had always followed periods of inflation such as resulted from great wars'. It was unfortunate that the slump in the prices of New Zealand primary products had been seriously aggravated first by the accumulation of stocks which resulted from the mismanagement of the war commandeer, for instance in wool, ami secondly by the good harvest in the Old World. After the first panic fall of prices there always came a reaction which checked the fall and produced a temporary revival such as we were just entering upon now. This revival would he a welcome relief to New Zealand especially since the prices of our products would rebound from the unnaturally low levels of 1920-21 to a parity with other prices. But the real difficulty to be faced was that though we must expect a series id’ revivals and depressions, the general tendency of prices for some years would he downwind. We were on a falling market. The conditions of the period of prosperity would lie reversed, prices of New Zealand produce would fall before other prices though not as much while the fixed overhead expenses would remain at their present level or rather increase.

In certain cases it would be found that over-valuation had been so great that they would simply have to be written down. An essential preliminary to the return of stable conditions must be the acceptance of the fact that the boom values were non-existent today. Then the fact of falling prices must be faced and accepted. The danger be feared most was the possibility of quack rehiedies, short cuts to prosperity, devices to tide over what were thought to be merely temporary difficulties. The only remedy was the overcrowding of falling prices bv greater production, better organisation, reduced costs. Compared with the prospects,of other countries New Zealand’s outlook seemed bright, but il was simply folly to expect a rapid return of the easy conditions of prewar prosperity. Blind optimism was a real danger at. the moment, but il tin dilliculiies were faced squarely he had every faith in the resources ol the Dominion.

There has been some amendment made in the arranged programme. Piof. Condlilfe’s illustrated lecture, “England and the Middle Ages, arranged for to-night, will be given on grid,iv night and instead Dr Teichcl moulds lecture “The Scenery of AYest’aipl” will be given this evening. The following is the collected pro gramme : WEDNESDAY, MAY 17th, 1322. 9.30 a.m. to 10.30 a.m.—Farmers, “ The Feeding of Milch Cows,” Mr J. If. Garnett, lf.Se. in Agriculture. Teachers, “ Modern Tendencies in Education,” Prof. .1. Shelley. 10.30 a.in. to 11.30 a.m. —Lecture, “Practice and Science of Agriculture,” Mr N. P. Neal, B.Ag. 11.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m.—Class Discus

sions. 1.30 p.'m.—Depart for Lake lyanieri. 7.30 p.u). to 8. ISO p.m. —Illustrated Ice ture, “The Scenery of Westland,’ Dr. E. Teiclielmann. 8.15 p.m.—Visit Chrysanthemum Show

THURSDAY, MAY 18th, 1922.

9.30 n.nn to 10.30 a.ni.-—Farmers, “Pasture Grasses,” N. P. Neal, B.Ag. Teachers, “Modern Tendencies in Education,” Prof. J. Shelley. 10.30 a.m. to 11.30 a.m.—Lecture, “ Scientific Principles of StockBreeding,” Mr J. Stafford, M.R.C.V.S. 11.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.in.—Class Discussions. 2 p.ni.—Visit Arahurn, Judging of Field Crops; Demonstration with Cattle, by Mr J. Stafford, M.D.C.V.S. 7.30 p.m.—lllustrated lecture, ‘I Shakespeare in the Theatre,” Prof. J. Shelley.

FRIDAY, MAY 19th, 1922

9.30 a.in. to 10.30 a.m.—Farmers, “ Diseases of Stock,” Mr J. Stafford, M.D.C.V.S. Teachers, “Modern Tendencies in Education,” Prof. J. Shelley. 10.30 a.in. to 11.30 a.m.—Lecture, “ Science and Dairying,” Mr J. B. Garnott, 11. Sc. 11.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m.—Class Discussions. 2 p, m . Visit liver flat to observe clearing and pastures, and Rinni Flat dredge. 715 p.m.—lllustrated lecture, 11 England in the Middle Ages,” Prof. J. B. Condliffe. After the lecture, tlie students and teachers will be the guests of the Westland A. and P. Association. SATURDAY, MAY 20th, 1922. Programme of lecture and discussion

to ho arranged according to the dosno of tlio classes.