WELLINGTON NOTES.

Hokitika Guardian, 10 September 1919, Page 4

WELLINGTON NOTES.

THE NEXT PARLIAMENT. EARLY SPECULATIONS. (Our Special Correspondent). WELLINGTON, Sept. A Though the exercise is necessarily a very futile one there are- a number of 'people about Parliament House just now spending many of their idle half hours in speculating on the party composition of the next House of Reps. It is a pastime in which Reformers, Liberals and Labourites mingle with a fine affectation of unconcern and impartiality and reach by practically the same beaten paths widely different ion elusions. The Reformers profess to be sure of a majority a small one perhaps, but still large enough to make them independent of either of the other parties, and to carry their policy through Parliament without submitting to any degrading compromise. They expect to lose one of the three seats they now hold in North Auckland and two or even three in the Wellington-Taranalci district, but they are confident of more than making up for these losses by gaining in the East Coast constituen'cies and in Canterbury and Southland.

LIBERAL ANTICIPATIONS. The Liberals, counting upon a large section of sane Labour being drawn to their camp by Sir Joseph Ward’s radical programme, anticipate a somewhat larger margin than the Reformers are claiming. They mark off forty-two or forty-three seats as certainties for themselves and two or three more for Labour candidates pledged to the Social Democratic • Party. They are not' very confident of recovering one of the North Auckland seats under the present system of election, but they believe they will win over four or five in the Wellington-Taranaki districts, which will mean in effect an increase of eight or ten votes in the House. They expect to pick up a seat in South Auckland, to impx-pve their position in Otago, to hold their own in Southland and to lose no more than two seats .in (Canterbury. The sane Labour support they are anticipating is to come from Taranaki, Wanganui and Auckland City.

LABOUR’S ASPIRATIONS. In its candid moments official Lahour, the section of the ultra-progres-sives, that is, controlled by the Social Democratic organisation, will tell you it is hoping for nothing better than to hold the balance of power between the two other parties. It also will tell you that at the moment it is more concerned about the faint-hearted workers Sir Joseph Ward’s “nationalising” policy may weaken in their adherence to “the cause” than they are about. the other timid folk who may be frightened into voting political peace at any price by Mr Massey’s fervid warnings against Bolshevism. Their estimates of the number of seats they are going to win vary from twelve to twenty, but they support the larger estimate by such far-fetched assumptions as to the defeat of Dr Newman, MrWilford, and Sir William Eraser by Labour candidates and tile ignominious rejection of sitting Labour members who have refused to accept “the pledge.” THE DESTINIES OF PARTIES

These conflicting anticipations—all, of course, more or less coloured, by the bluff which is part of the politicians’ game—do not help one very materially in predicting what will happen at the forthcoming election. Even after the most unbiased analysis of the probabilities a good deal is left to the haszard of luck. With the existing method of voting, under wliich the polling must be conducted, the victory is not always to the majority, any more than the race is always to the swift or the battle to the strong.. But after discounting all the estimates, with as little partiality as any of us can command, it seems probable that in the new Parliament Labour will have a greater voice than ever before in determining wliich of the two older parties will occupy the Treasury Benches. Perhaps it is the contingency the Reform newslipapers have in view when they hint at the revival of the coalition as the only safeguard against the perils of revolutionary specialism.