THE HINDENBURG RIDDLE.

Hokitika Guardian, 16 June 1917, Page 4

THE HINDENBURG RIDDLE.

HAIG KNOWS THE ANSWER'

(By To vat Fraser.)

The question of the hour is the German retirement in the west. Have the enemy now reached the new line of their choice, or do they mean to fall bach still farther ? My own personal impression is that they intend very soon to evacu • ate nearly the whole of Northern France, up to a- line drawn near the frontier of Belgium and Fuxemburg; but this is merely a guess. The thing one fails to understand is the intense anxiety produced among many people by the German withdrawal. To hear some apprehensive comments, the Germans might be smashing through to Paris instead of slinking hack towards the Meuse. Whatever their intentions may be, their acts show that they do not hope to return. No army has ever yet devastated a belt of country over which it expected to have to fight in the near future. The Germans will b e driven home without even having looked on Paris from afar. Has a single Hun patrol ever caught sight of the Eiffel Tower ?

Then we are told, both by the German experts -snd by some nervous people in this country, that the Allies have much tp fear from a war of movement. The Allied generals, it is pleasantly suggested, have not the alert and skilled brains of the paragons of the German Great General Staff. They can man a wet. ditch and stick a row of guns behipd it, but when it comes to open warfare the advantage may lie with strategy made in Germany.

These are yery unworthy misgivings. We have not sent millions of men to Frajice to sit in wet ditches year after year. If the war of movement is really at hand, we ought to rejoice, for past experience suggests that wp have everything to gain from such a change. In this war the Allies in the west have invariably defeated the Germans in open warfare. There have been three great battles in the west which fully partook of the character of open warfare. They were the battle of the Grand Couroiine de Nancy, the battle of the Marne, and the first battle- of Ypres, and they were fought respectively by General de Casteliiau, Marshal Jollrp, and Field-Marshal Ford French. In each, the Allies were victorious, and the second and third were of a decisive because they brought about results which determined the whole future course of the war. The battle of the Somme, fought by Field-Marshal Haig and General Koch, and the subsidiary or continuing battle, of the Ancre, fought by the British alone, also produced results which are now manifestly destined to be permanent. 'They were not open battles, but they forced the present German retirement. If the Western , Allies, when, they were taken by surprise and were short of men, of guns and of shells, were always able to outfight the Germans in the open, why on earth should they do so now ? We British are still at the very top of our strength. The Germans are probably as numerous as ever, but even their front-'ine troops are being underfed. The blanched women and children of Rove and Ham said that the German rank and file had been on short commons for six months.

Paris reports suggest that a great Rattle in the west is imminent, and that the enemy are to attack This theory may be accurate, but there seem to be many indications that the Germans are at least not preparing for battle in the region of their retreat. People who set traps do not begin by telling the other fellow all about it. The tendency to develop reari guard actions along the line of the retreat is quite in accordance with the possibility of a much bigger retirement than is so far revealed. The Germans have been followed up rather more rapidly than they expected. It is only natural that they should resist stiffly at various points in order to check the Allied advance. The reason why I venture to doubt \yhether they will stay long on the Cambrai-St Quentin-Ta Fere line is that that line is already being pierced at the southern end. It does not matter much whether the Germans foresaw the rapidity of the French advance or not. The tact remains that qup Allies are well forward. They have crossed the St Quentin Canal at various points between St Quentin and La Fere and are crowning the low heights beyond, the very ridge which was thought to be part of the “ Hindenburg line.” North of La P'ere they have actually reached the river Oise, and arg thus outflanking the great forest of St Gobain. The Germans are retaliating by hooding the town of La Fere. It looks very like a non-stop run. The British troops are meeting with more serious resistance between Arras and points east of Bapaume, but they are still methodically advancing, as is shown by the occupation of Roisel. Their movements are slow because they find that the Somme bombardment has pulverised the countryside and made progress difficult. Jt seeiqs to be. assumed in many quarters

that the enemy will hold fast to the iineßetween Arras and Armentieres but such a decision is by no means imperative. The Fens and Fille coalfields are not necessarily a lure. It is contended that if the British establish themselves on a line from Arras-to Cainbrai, or thereabouts, they will have created a dangerous and inviting salient. The converse of this suggestion is even more true, for the contention cuts' both ways. If the Germans are eventually' found on a line running from Fens through Vimy to Arras, and from Arras to Cambrai, they will most assuredly be running great risks.

All the current speculations are one-sided and therefore misleading, because they leave out of account the plans of Field-Marshal Haig and General Nivelle. Every'one knows that the Western. Allies meant to attack again this spring. We may be certain that the Allied commanders have fully taken the measure of Hiudenburg’s move.

The one clear fact is4hat the war in the west, which so long' seemed fixed and petrified, is liquefying fast, and the enemy are being forced to move in the direction we desire. More than that we do not know and cannot know. It is believed that somewhere between the western front and the eastern front they have accumulated a great strategic reserve of troops. We hear of this mysterious mass at many points. One day it is concentrating in Flanders for an attempt to break through to Calais; the next it is around Charleville and Mezieres for an attack in Champagne. The ne\y Russian Minister of War proclaims that it is being assembled for a blow at Petrograd, a possibility which should by no means be ruled out. Once more I venture to sav that we must always reckon upon the chance that Hindenburg’s trump card may prove to be an attempt to obtain a foothold in these islands, and so to scare us into briugipg back troops from France. I-have noticed one marked peculiarity about the German press of late. The German newspapers never say a word now about invading Great Britain, silence on a once favourite topic is peculiar.

Whatever course the war may now take, the people ofthis country should prepare themselves for a period of strain such as we have never yet known. At a time when food is short and when real privations may be at hand, we are entering upon a phase of desperate uncertainty, perhaps fraught with grave surprise. l ?. We have still to overthrow the enemy in the field, and the submarine menace upon which the Germans are chiefly l, relying, is more formidable than ever.