THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1927. THE SHANGHAI CRISIS.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XVII, Issue 57, 18 February 1927, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1927. THE SHANGHAI CRISIS.

Although the news coming through from China yesterday and this morning with regard to the military situation does not bear the imprint of assured authenticity, known conditions point to the likelihood of its general trend being based on fact. For some good few months prior to the advent of the northern winter, causing some relaxation in their activities, the Cantonese armies had been steadily asserting their superiority over those under the control of the Pekinese Government. They had been pushing their front northward with but few reverses of any moment and, as we know, on their western wing had reached the Yangtsze river, where they have laid their hands on Hankow and several other important towns along its course. On their right wing, in the sea-coast province of Chekiang, their northward movement had not been so rapid, but at the same time it was noticeably in progress. It is of its renewed operations in this latter area that we are now having word that is by no means reassuring so far as the immediate fate of Shanghai is concerned.

With attention pretty well concentrated on diplomatic discussions with Chen at inland Hankow only very’sporadic information has been given us with regard to what was going on in the coastal region. It is only now we hear that the Cantonese forces have "for a month been hammering at Hangchow, the gateway to Shanghai.” This n itself is a rather startling announcement, as it indicates a very marked advance northward from any place at which we had earlier news of the rival forces being in contact. Hangchow is a very considerable city at the head and on the northern ’’de of the bay of the same name

and, as the cable states, lies only some hundred miles south-west of Shanghai, with which it is con uected by railway. What are today quoted as “reliable reports” state that the Pekinese line of defence has been broken at this point and that Sun Chuan-fang, the military governor of Shanghai, is withdrawing his forces, apparently in some confusion, to the line of Sung-kiang, a town also lying on the line of railway, but only some 35 miles from Shanghai. It will thus be seen that, accepting these reports at face value, the chances of Shanghai falling into the hands of the Southern forces are by no means remote.

In summing up the prospects it must always be remembered that, thanks to years now of training and instruction by Russian military experts, the Cantonese forces are in an infinitely better state of organisation and discipline than are those with which they are >n conflict. Thanks also to Moscow, they are better armed and equipped Then, though they may be getting away from their recognised supply bases, this is not a matter of so very great importance where there is no hesitation about “living off -he country,” even should the resident population be reduced to starva tion. Apart from this facile recourse, it may also be assumed that the people themselves are in ill probability of friendly disposition to the cause championed by the Cantonese Nationalists. Then, again, we have rumours of whole sale desertion from Sun’s side that previous experience of subordinate Chinese commanders make more than likely to be true, while there are others who are only waiting “to see how the cat jumps” before deciding 'to which side they will adhere, a well recognised policy among Chinese militarists.

Having all these considerations m view, it is a little difficult 0O regard Sun’s sounding protestations, as reported yesterday, of His ability to defend Shanghai against Southern attack and to protect 'ts European population as having a good deal the charactei of mere vapourings. As to his statement that the great far northern war lord, Chang Tso-lin, was in full co operation with him and advancing to an attack -on the Cantonese forces, this as yet lacks any recent confirmation from Chang’s side. The latest we heard of Chang was a week ago, when it was reported that he was despatching forces southward along four routes to engage the Cantonese troops. How far these forces, if actually on their way, may have got we are not just now told. In any event, there must be grave misgivings as to whether they would be on hand in time to save Shanghai should the Nation alists be really bent on taking possession of it. On this lattei point one of our latest messages at time of writing suggests that financial considerations might dictate the advisableness of holding off for a while. However this may be, it would seem pretty plain that Chen at Hankow is craftily finessing for time which he thinks will produce conditions that will give him still further advantage in his already long drawn out negotiations with Mr. O’Malley, on the spot, and his chief, Sir Miles Lampson, at Pekin, and Sir Austen Chamberlain in London. Chen is obviously a past-master at postponement.